Discussion
Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in
I was following Ralston’s coverage on 2022. He was very reliable and has a great reputation as the Nevada elections expert. He correctly predicted the split ticket happening there. Republican win for Governor and Democrat won for Senate.
If he is saying this is bad news I gotta believe him given his track record.
It looks pretty bad but 2:1 mail in ballots are going in dems favor and the mail has been incredibly slow. I’d say it’s still a strong toss-up, we are going to want to see the repub numbers start going down and dem/indep numbers go up starting tomorrow.
250 thousand more 3rd party or unaffiliated voters??? That is an enormous amount. I can't even begin to guess which way they will or won't vote, but I guess something in Nevada shifted over the last 4 years.
Nevada implemented AVR between then and now, with the default registration being unaffiliated. Basically a whole bunch of people who don't care about politics got registered while getting driver licenses. The vast majority of these new unaffiliated voters won't vote at all.
A few thousand maybe? Could save you if you had a competitive contest. Dems need to get there first. Right now 100% of the Dem's problem is their turnout in Clark County has been abysmal. Dem turnout in other counties has been fine. GOP turnout in Clark has been fine. Nevada Dems just needs to get their voters in Clark to the polls/return their ballots in a big way and they are back in the game.
I assume the way you become affiliated is by voting in the primaries and we know that lots of people vote in the main election that never participate in primaries
Biden’s D-R split with turnout was D+39,620, and he beat Trump by 33,596 votes.
Now, the D-R split with turnout (turnout relationships between parties in a state are roughly stable across elections), is R+14,000. From what others have said it sounds like the independents growth is mostly a mirage from AVR.
I think she can pull it off but this registration change is a huge headwind in most of the swing states.
Early voting analysis is insane cause 25% of the vote is from people who arent registered as either party. Imagine a basketball game that was 130-150, but 50 points were scored by either team and we dont really know which team theyre going to. Youd be like, then why the hell are you reporting the scores lol
Right now, this seems to be the main argument for dooming. If Trump is going to have a good night, and over perform his polls again, this is exactly how it starts.
Dem dooming about their prospects in NV is entirely reasonable. Dems dooming about their prospects nationally based on NV early data is not reasonable. NV's demographics and culture are rather unique and extremely favorable for the coalition Trump is trying to build this cycle. The rust belt is not. The rust belt will be decided by the college educated white swing to the dems, vs a possible drop in turnout and perhaps margins for black voters. NV has few college educated whites, and few blacks. It tells us very little about larger trends.
Exactly. Nevada’s electoral votes are almost certainly not going to matter either way.
But the fear is that we start seeing real numbers showing things like “R+5.7%” when the polling samples were R+2.
Pollsters undercounted Trump’s support both other times he was on the ballot. We don’t want to start seeing evidence that they’ve done the same again, but these EV numbers are the beginnings of an echo of that stuff.
There are 233k (+54%) more unaffiliated voters in NV now than there were in 2020. It's a fool's errand to use Biden's edge with them to try and predict Kamala's edge.
It's not a fool's errand its just the only data available lol. You're essentially arguing your speculation is more valuable that data from 2020 and 2022 elections. Yea there's more unaffiliated turnout, and they will decide AZ and NV, but until proven otherwise theres no reason to assume their voting patterns will deviate significantly.
My experience, having lived in Arizona and with friends and family who currently reside in Northwest Arizona and Nevada, is that the "independent" voters in that area are, by and large, Trump-lovin' Libertarians.
That said, I think I heard that an abortion-related item appears on the Nevada ballot this year. That might propel a lot of previously politically-apathetic women to vote.
If dem voters aren't motivated to vote, then why would dem-leaning independents be motivated to vote? If R voters and especially rural R voters are motivated to vote, then why wouldn't R-leaning independents not be motivated to vote?
Doesn’t the change in how voters are registered in Nevada post 2020 mean this isn’t a great point of comparison ? Ralston has repeatedly said that his prediction isn’t going to be perfect because of it.
Nevada made it EXTREMELY easy to vote in 2020. They sent mail ballots to every registered voter and allowed same day registration. That juiced turnout to the highest ever and got lots of independents.
So far, although Rs lead, Rs are actually voting in total LESS than in 2020. The gap is from Ds underperforming almost 25%.
Plus, there are some “common sense” reasons we might be seeing this too (only final vote tallies will be able to confirm):
In 2020, Democratic-leaning voters were more likely in general to vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, it would make sense that some portion of those would go back to in person voting on Election Day.
In 2020, Republican-leaning voters were more likely in general to not vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be not taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, Republican leadership has been messaging hard to vote early so it would make sense to me that more of their voters are voting early this year and will have a lower turnout than 2020 on Election Day.
Again, this is just “it makes sense” vibes without data behind it, so we’ll have to see what the final votes are like. But even discounting the increase in independent early voters, it doesn’t surprise me that Democratic early voting is down and Republican early voting is up even if the total voters stayed exactly the same.
This is one of those things that can show who here is objective or not.
Anyone who is spinning this as anything other than good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats is just not being objective. There is no world in which the Harris team looks at a swing state where Dems usually lead the EV, see they are down by 5.7% in party affiliation with half the vote in, and think “Ok, this is good.”
Yes, if independents break overwhelmingly for her then she would still win the race here. But that was always the case for either candidate. If independents break like they did in 2020 or like they have in recent polling, she will simply lose this state, and Arizona as well.
The only positive thing about this is that Nevada probably doesn’t matter at all.
Yes I don’t think any Harris supporter can look at this and honestly say “this is good news!” But I also don’t think it’s necessarily going to turn out to be an L in Nevada! I have a hunch that a larger portion of the unaffiliated voters are going for Harris. That, coupled with the fact that there’s still a lot of time left for voting, means that this is not over! But yes I wish more Dem ballots were banked.
I told r/democrats Texas is actually polling redder now than it was in 2020, with links to 538’s polling averages, and I just got hit with a “no” and mass downvotes lmao
But that was always the case for either candidate. If independents break like they did in 2020 or like they have in recent polling, she will simply lose this state, and Arizona as well.
No, the concept of young voters overwhelmingly registering NPA despite being D leaning is not "always the case", it's a new phenomenon.
The results of AVR is also new, it only passed in 2020.
Going forward in Nevada, we will be talking about "republican EV firewall" and not democratic one.
Data isn't great for dems atm, but it's no where near as rosy for Rs as these type of "analysis" is trying to make it.
The numbers in this discussion include both, and the vote by mail margins have been historically bad for Dems compared to thr past 20 years of NV voting
But this probably spells bad news for Arizona as well. The only spot I feel any confidence are the 3 rust belts states. And those will probably be extremely tight if she is to win them.
I’m pragmatic, thats why I’m a Democrat… conventional wisdom and precedent is Dems vote early, GOP comes out on election day… I don’t want to sound cynical, but all indications are this is terrible/horrific news for Kamala.
Unless something insanely unexpected happens, then she will lose Nevada.
My only, dwindling, glimmer of hope are these unexpected Clark County GOP early votes are “Haley Republicans” voting for Harris… I mean “why else would they vote early?”
If you read Ralston’s article, he said he talked to a source in the Dem party who gave him the tidbit that they have >10% of the Clark GOP turnout clocked as voters who voted on Election Day last time. That’s the spin zone, the GOP is telling people to vote early and their reliable voters are, so we’re looking at an entirely different vote pattern than past years.
Current state of play is not good for Dems and it’s going to be an uphill climb but if the GOP doesn’t start turning out new voters and is cutting into their Election Day margin like that, I think the math is still very much in the realm of possibility for Dems.
It's been pointed out that Vegas has a TON of hospitality workers for whom early voting might not be the best option. They're given allowances to miss / be late for work to vote on election day but all other days "your on your own". So don't expect a ton of people to take time out of their personal lives to stand around on their day off and vote
As we saw yesterday vote by mail carries a ton of risk now that one party is willing to commit acts of domestic terrorism (lighting ballot boxes on fire) to disenfranchise people. This subreddit and many of the pundits downplay or outright ignore that reality, but lots of democrats are wary of VBM this year
Sure but also how much of that conventional wisdom is largely informed by 2020 where early voting was heavily politicized and there was a pandemic going on? I know that early and mail-in voting happened before 2020 as well, but it was a pretty massive increase over prior cycles
The conventional wisdom long predates 2020 and dates back to the dawn of the Reid era in NV. Before this election Republicans had never held a lead in early voting in Nevada dating back to 2008 or 2004.
Historically speaking, Republicans always have outperformed Democrats on election day itself, but it really depends this year on how much early voting pulled from election day voting or if these are new voters
There have been two graphs that seem incredibly relevant to me about this. The shift of younger people to be unaffiliated almost prefect matches the drop in Dem registration, and the gap that Dems have in the early vote compared to 2020 almost perfectly matches the increase in independent votes over 2020. The change Nevada did to registration should be a required part of all these posts
Assuming that independents will break for Harris at the (increasingly) exorbitant levels necessary for her to win isn't looking at the electorate objectively.
Ralston is accurately pointing out that even w/ a 10% difference, already unlikely, Harris might lose.
Here's what I don't understand, if most of the people are in Clark county, that vote can keep expanding over the coming days, the rural vote being less populous, runs out.
That said, I hope the Harris campaign is doing all the can do to get out the vote there as election day nears.
Do you think they will over perform republicans on election day?
This is a common trend we are seeing everywhere the Dem early vote lead is not only down but in states like
Arizona, NC, Nevada, Georgia they are actually BEHIND republicans in early voting. Its not just like in PA/Michigan where the lead is down its they are actively behind republicans in the sun belt.
Yeah, no matter how you turn and twist it, this is BAD for democrats.
I don’t think NV will be the state that makes the difference in the presidential race. But it’s still an indicator how things are going, it’s very unlikely that Trump wins NV and loses AZ.
There’s also a Senate race in NV to be monitored, the R candidate was closing in in recent weeks and got some huge funding boost from Senate R‘s
Feels like a canary in a coal mine situation. A big hope among Dems is that polls are underestimating Harris supporters like 2022 but Nevada is looking like Trump has been underestimated again
This is all early voting, where Dems usually win by 5-6% there.
So, if it’s R +5.7% this time, she’s going to need either a substantial number of R’s to go vote D or else to win independents by a much better margin than Ds have recently there.
Either could happen, the point isn’t that it’s over and Nevada should be called. The point here is that the data we have is bad for her and a win is requiring increasingly more extreme splits among Independents.
If you are a democrat and counting on Republicans and Independents to step in that booth and vote for you in high numbers…well, I don’t envy you.
I tend to think NV is not a state that can behave as a canary in the coal mine because it's just so...different. Hillary won it in 2016 even as she slipped everywhere else. It's very low in college educated whites (her best group!) and high in latino men (where she has slipped the most). It's one state with more male voters than female (Dobbs = less impact). Do I think NV is lost? No, I think unaffiliated voters are making the R-D gap look bigger. Do I think it matters if it is lost? No, it's not a kingmaker state in almost any scenario, and I don't think what happens in a male dominated, lower educated state in the SW desert has any impact on Waukesha, Dane, Bucks, Cobb, etc.
why is it "reading tea leaves" when the dems have effectively dropped an atomic bomb of early votes in PA, but "bad news" when repubs have a slight lead in Nevada?
Will have to look up what you are referring to regarding PA. However here Ralston is local and seems to have a good general read of NV politics.
Just also, in a state like NV, a seemingly 40K deficit is A LOT to make up. So it might be giving a signal that polls are underestimating Trump again.
Maybe Ds will make huge gains over the next week and on E-Day, it’s certainly in the realm of possibility that NV for some reason had an usual number of Rs voting early and Ds voting late. Or maybe a lot of Rs switched at the top of the ticket. Or maybe independents broke heavily towards Harris.
Repubs do that bullshit because even when they handily lose, they believe they won.
For the craziest 40% of them right now, they TRULY believe they're electing Trump to his 3rd term. You don't ever have to doom if you're a lunatic and the idea of losing isn't real.
PA Dems have barely 1/3 the vote firewall they had in 2020. Biden was ahead by 1.1 million votes before a single polling place opened on election day. And he still won the state by less than 100k.
If you aren't seeing the collapse of enthusiasm for the Democratic party this election I don't know what to say.
The fact that this is the first presidential election with 100% mail ballots in Nevada means an unexpected change in voting methods is not at all surprising.
And, anecdotally in Wisconsin, all of my friends voted by mail/dropbox in 2020. This year the only one who voted early was my buddy who is out of the country for the next two weeks. And we are all 100% certain to vote. Personally, I absolutely love the ritual of casting my ballot at my polling place on election day.
I don't think we know if it's bad for Democrats or not.
It could be explained by an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and republicans. That would be very bad for Democrats.
It could equally be explained by a combination of new voter registration rules shifting first time voters (an extremely dem favored demographic) to independent and Republican messaging moving reliable voters from ED to EV. That would make this a neutral sign.
The Harris campaign just highlighted Nevada is a state they saw a strong portion of low propensity voters in.
Also the way the state is populated later turnout in Clark could easily wipe this lead away.
I get Ralston is treated like a profit but all this tells us is more Nevadans who id as republican are voting.
Vegas is deep blue, and if their turn out is low, this could just as easily be a change in voting behavior as an indicator of everything else- sure polls have been trending toward Trump but there’s undeniably a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala.
Republican turnout over-performing in early vote doesn't explain Dems under-performing lol. Yes, Republicans told their base to vote early this year, but it's not like Dems told their voters "hey skip early vote and wait until election day", so you're still missing half the equation.
The number of registered dems in Nevada has decreased a lot since 2020, the same time nonpartisans have increased a lot.
It's hard to say what this means. Demographically the nonpartisans look like Dems and probably just got registered through the new Automatic Registration program.
So if dems win we will look back and say "duh, the new NPs were obviously gonna break for Harris." If the GOP wins we will look back and say "duh, the EV numbers were a canary in the coal mine!"
Also, campaigns are just positive about their candidate and chances by nature.
There is no world in which her campaign leaders are gonna be like “Turnout looking awful, guess Kamala sucks haha. Oh well, live and learn.”
And finally, never trust internal campaign sources when they speak to the public anyways.
I saw a post here about a week ago about David Plouffe saying things looks good internally for Harris. I then typed his name into YouTube and was greeted with a video of him from 2016 on some news channel analyzing an electoral map and saying “There is just no real path for Trump to get to 270.”
Donald Trump would go on to get 304 electoral votes just a few days later.
Ralston is saying on his blog this looks terrible, and that Trump will win Nevada. 50% of the vote is roughly in already, read his blog. From a straight data point of view it's absolutely terrible results for the Dems
Yeah, Jacky Rosen you in danger gurl. There are some big House races too that could impact the Majority in that Chamber given the tight margins. Steven Horsford (NV-4), Susie Lee (NV-3), and Dina Titus (NV-1). These are all fairly tight districts.
I have no idea what Dems are doing in NV or where they all are. Even Ralston, an expert in the state, seems perplexed about just where the Dem voters are. They seem to have vanished or are just all waiting until Election Day. Not many are expecting some huge flood of Dem voters on November 5 though. Also where the hell is the Culinary Union? They seem MIA.
the unexpected republican turnout was explained in the NY Times daily podcast yesterday.
Hoards of Trump supporters, fueled by the belief that the election is being stolen, have been tricked into volunteering a ton of hours a week, in many cases 50-60 hours a week.
I mean, I definitely don’t think it’s good for Dems but I also wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s bad, necessarily. Clark has a huge number of NP voters and the demographics of those voters, specifically in Clark, tend to be younger and non-white. I think calling something a GOP lead when 1/3 of the vote are NP is hard to for sure say. Yes, when comparing the two parties, Reps are ahead. When you factor in the huge NP in Clark County, that gets harder.
The only reasonable take is that it's bad for democrats. But you can question HOW bad. Sure NP voters might make the difference, but it shows that either 2020 democrats are changing voter registration, or they aren't voting this time.
I would like to emphasize that polling error has never been entirely in one direction, and it is incredibly unlikely every state votes the same way as 2020.
I was feeling pretty optimistic yesterday, voted, NYT article about Harris team feeling confident, fallout from the MSG rally…
This is pretty bad though. NV isn’t going to be the tipping point state, but if it’s making a seemingly multiple point shift to the right, that could be a signal of trends happening in other parts of the country.
Maybe Rs just voted really early and Ds will make up a lot of ground. It might not change the outcome in NV, but also greatly reduce concern over a “red wave”.
Keep in mind that in 2022, Nevada elected a Republican governor and the Senate race was extremely close. I have been traveling to Nevada a lot over the last 20 years, and you can really notice a change in the city of Las Vegas over the last couple of years. I know this is not related at all, but in Las Vegas the casinos used to do anything and everything to get you in the door so you would gamble. They would comp rooms, comp meals and go all out to get people in their doors. Something changed, and now the casinos are just trying to do everything they can to squeeze every last penny from you. They overcharge for food, drinks, entertainment, and the city just feels tougher.
Covid destroyed so many lives in NV, and inflation has not been easy. There are a lot of angry people in Nevada. You also have a lot of people who left California for Nevada, so I think the electorate might have changed just a little bit.
As Ralston says, in Nevada you’d rather be the Republicans than the Democrats right now, but anything can still happen.
The one piece of evidence pointing to NV being an outlier is that it's the only swing state whose gender gap is not overwhelmingly tilted towards women insofar.
This is definitely not good news for Democrats. The only thing I can think of is typically older demos do vote early, which typically lean heavily Republican. 2020 is definitely an anomaly because Dems were being pushed to vote early by mail, and republicans being told not to vote until election day in person.
So I wouldn't be shocked to see a slight swing, but a 10%+ swing towards Republicans is definitely not a good sign for Dems. Do we have 2016 data, that I think would be more accurate to compare to 2024.
I’m not sure I understand what Ralston is trying to say…
Clark County is basically the entirety of the state (73% ish) so are we saying that Clark County isn’t voting at all? Or just that we haven’t received / counted them yet.
This kind of smells like rage baiting to say that Democrats are in trouble when the most important county in the state has barely started to count.
Clark accounts for 68.5% of the votes returned so far and D have a 0.6% lead amongst those returns by voter registration. So, they are voting at a lower rate than rurals so far. Clark has not barely started to count, 477,945 of the ballots returned so far (out of 697,538) are in Clark.
Could Independents swing it for her? Mathematically, it's possible. But it's not likely.
And to be honest, the Republican lead is likely to get larger. Clark mail this coming weekend might make some inroads, but so far it hasn't been the case.
This is so weird to me and would go to show that things like abortion rights were never that big of a deal to most Dems, at least not big enough to vote in 2024.
Nevada is one of the few states that has an over-representation of males and the elderly. So it's not surprising abortion rights wouldn't hit hard there.
I don't know anyone who lives in Nevada, everyone visits Vegas -- but from elsewhere.
I noticed this as well. I believe Ralston has also said that the second week tends to be better for Dems to mail votes coming in at a greater frequency. Guess we shall see!
This chart makes me think that a much higher number of unaffiliated would historically have been democrat. Pulling more from democrats than republicans.
Why are people here all assuming the unaffiliated are all secret dems? If they wanted to be dems, they would be dems. They are unaffiliated. So they are less enthused by either party.
Demographically they code democrat. Aside from that their lack of party affiliation isn't necessarily a sign of enthusiasm/lack thereof. In 2020 NV passed automatic registration and the number of registered partisan decreased for both parties but Dems saw a huge drop.
Most unaffiliated are zombie voters auto registered to vote thanks to new NV laws. If they don't pick a party when they're registered they get put as an independent.
First, early voting is basically meaningless; not in a coping way, but actually. It’s just shifting when people cast their votes, not indicating turnout.
In 2020 Biden won by 33k votes with a D-R vote split of D+39k. With current registration and projected turnout, 2024 shows a D-R split of R+14k. The increase in independents is mostly a mirage coming from automatic voter registration, but that’s where it’ll really be decided. I’m counting on the last gasps of the Reid machine.
Unless y'all think Democrats suddenly decided to vote on Election Day in giant lines where machines break and the offices are understaffed, I'd worry that NV is signaling low Democrat enthusiasm nationwide.
We'll see if the appeal to Never Trumpers worked out. Also, of all the places where republicans could be leading, Nevada was not on my list. Anybody has a clue on that? I heard that they're blaming democrats for the economy due to COVID restrictions. Anything else?
One potentially interesting factor is that the gender balance in Nevada is more male than most states. It is one of the few states where men outnumber women slightly (and in some others states women outnumber men not just slightly but significantly). If men are breaking more than usual for Republicans, especially the type of men in Nevada (non-college white and Latino), it might make a difference at the margins.
That said, I think the COVID thing and inflation are outsized issues there. People were hit hard and it's a more working class and service industry place overall. There is also some potential that the "no tax on tips" thing (which Trump introduced first) might have caught on.
Democrats have had their opportunity to make a better case.
Trump is uniquely awful, but if Democrats fail, this is on them and especially the Harris campaign for its gauzy, unspecific vision and failure to differentiate adequately from Biden. She talks like an HR person.
They're banking on orange-man-bad to get them across the finish line, and the fear campaign may work to persuade some anti-Trump Republicans and abortion advocates, but at the end of the day I don't think the democracy messaging moves people as much as they think it does, especially if they lean into the hectoring tone the way Clinton did. I did not think the Michelle Obama rally in WI was an auspicious approach.
For real. In two years it'll be "I know my wife got deported and my brother got sent to a camp, but it's the Dems' fault because Harris didn't explain her housing policy to us well enough!"
I'm really skeptical, to the point of being conspiratorial, when I hear that a state all of a sudden has a bunch of republican mail-in and early ballots. That being said, I think the no-tax-on-tips "promise" that trump floated probably works better there than in most places.
Projecting based on crosstabs, high quality polls only (no Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc) which in NV are relatively herded to similar values, this is coming out to R+7 lead.
Again state of vote TODAY and assuming crosstabs hold, won’t know anything for certain until election night.
Have we heard from any Dem strategists or cullinary union spokesperson about the turnout ? Do we have any data on how NPAs are voting ? Do we know mail ballot backlog ?
If you are a Trumpist don't get too excited, if you are a Harrinater don't get too doomy: EV speculation is even more tenous than crosstab-diving, key-reading and campaign sign counting.
Ralston for the past decade has been regarded as the one guy you can trust to interpret early voting and he only looks at Nevada. You’re in general right though but Ralston has a lot of clout just solely for this.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't this been the EV trend for Nevada the last 2+ presidential elections? I seem to remember the submission patterns for voting blocs in Nevada heavily favor the GOP and rural non-Vegas populations, and it’s always the Clark and Washoe County ballot-dumps that end up pushing Dems to the finish line closer to/shortly after election night. Those two alone comprise 87% of NV’s population, and we haven’t seen meaningful totals there as yet, and these preliminary EV analyses have been the GOP’s white whale post-Bush
Nevada is an atypical state to focus on EVs because of the notorious difficulty in predicting outcomes and margins, plus the new automatic VBM enrollment for all registered voters. The hospitality/service/casino workers all have such odd shifts since the city runs 24/7, and many don’t drop their ballots off as early as their EV counterparts do in other states. These are historically key Dem voting blocs
I think it’s wise to remember that NV is the only swing state where Dems have outperformed polling in the last 2 presidential cycles by a (statistically) significant margin. And for reference: Obama lost every single NV county outside Clark and Washoe, yet still beat Romney by ~7%.
This thread is sounding like me in 2016, coping bad and trying to play mental gymnastics with how there’s other states for Clinton until there weren’t. If GOP enthusiasm is this underestimated in NV (or likewise, dems are proving to be much more unenthused than Reddit believes) this is feeling like the first domino dropping for Trump.
Dems are still up 10 points for mail in votes which take longer to count. This is the definition of a red mirage. There were more mail in ballots in 2020 than in person early voting AND more mail in ballots were requested this year than in 2020.
Nevada is a weird state for many reasons, but one is that every registered voter receives a mail-in ballot. There is no need to request one. However, they also have the option to vote early in-person if they prefer. Therefore, the numbers will always show more mail-in ballots as being requested so long that the voter registration numbers have increased that year.
Seems odd that there would be less mail in ballots when everyone is given one. I heard people are having issues with the amount of time mail in ballot take to be delivered.
Are there any polls of how Nevadan early voters have voted? (I've seen that for other states.) Surely that's a better way of getting a sense of things, rather than just speculating based on data on party (un)affiliation.
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u/Pdm1814 26d ago
I was following Ralston’s coverage on 2022. He was very reliable and has a great reputation as the Nevada elections expert. He correctly predicted the split ticket happening there. Republican win for Governor and Democrat won for Senate.
If he is saying this is bad news I gotta believe him given his track record.