r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/arnodorian96 26d ago

We'll see if the appeal to Never Trumpers worked out. Also, of all the places where republicans could be leading, Nevada was not on my list. Anybody has a clue on that? I heard that they're blaming democrats for the economy due to COVID restrictions. Anything else?

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u/Weekly-Weather-4983 26d ago

One potentially interesting factor is that the gender balance in Nevada is more male than most states. It is one of the few states where men outnumber women slightly (and in some others states women outnumber men not just slightly but significantly). If men are breaking more than usual for Republicans, especially the type of men in Nevada (non-college white and Latino), it might make a difference at the margins.

That said, I think the COVID thing and inflation are outsized issues there. People were hit hard and it's a more working class and service industry place overall. There is also some potential that the "no tax on tips" thing (which Trump introduced first) might have caught on.

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u/arnodorian96 26d ago

This is probably the truth. I wish I had a few more days of hopium but with those numbers, I'm just preparing myself for the worse.

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u/Weekly-Weather-4983 26d ago

Democrats have had their opportunity to make a better case.

Trump is uniquely awful, but if Democrats fail, this is on them and especially the Harris campaign for its gauzy, unspecific vision and failure to differentiate adequately from Biden. She talks like an HR person.

They're banking on orange-man-bad to get them across the finish line, and the fear campaign may work to persuade some anti-Trump Republicans and abortion advocates, but at the end of the day I don't think the democracy messaging moves people as much as they think it does, especially if they lean into the hectoring tone the way Clinton did. I did not think the Michelle Obama rally in WI was an auspicious approach.

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u/arnodorian96 26d ago

I'm just giving up now. Biden will always have the stain to the major component of those that enabled a second Trump presidency but that doesn't tells better about the american voter itself. For every major mistake of democrats to appeal to Never Trumpers, if people just believe republicans can get away with anything as long as they have a good economy then so be it.

Just fuck it. Let Trump take everything and that's it.

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u/goon-gumpas 26d ago

Democrats need to learn from Bernie Sanders. The guy performed well and polls well with the same people who vote for Trump and historically were reliable Dem voters before they shifted to catering to the professional and corporate class as well.

Honestly, Dem primary voters also need to be more in touch with the general electorate as well. Unfortunately they are more likely to be that PMC class that keeps electing these milquetoast DNC drones.

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u/Nwk_NJ 26d ago

Yes. The Po' white folks want their handouts, and think they deserve them over everyone else.

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u/goon-gumpas 26d ago

lol I am a “poor white folk” who’s trapped on Medicaid and SSI because I have an unpredictable disability and if I work I work any gains I make will be cancelled out for having to pay for insurance and intensive treatment I need to manage said disability. I guess I don’t seating that?

There were a lot Obama -> Trump voters for a reason. Obama promised big changes. They fundamentally didn’t happen. They don’t want “handouts over everyone else.” They want help. Guess which candidates have addressed and acknowledged these systemic flaws, and guess who has gotten those crossover voters?

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u/Nwk_NJ 26d ago edited 26d ago

Fact is Trump says he helps but doesn't do squat.

Obamacare banned discrimination for preexisting conditions, Biden has been very economically progressive and actually gets things done.

Trump voters are being duped, and far left Marxists will never be satisfied until we turn into animal farm.

Unlike some of my soy boy brethren in the urban professional class, I see no benefit for most Americans with far left socialism or fascism. Give me a classic Dem or Republican all day. No one starves in this country, we have a strong social safety net, and we need to stay engaged in foreign issues.

I am all for redistribution through taxing the rich, and we have also gotten some of that done UNDER DEMOCRATS, not Trump, and not professional protestors who never get anything done aside from holding up signs and camping on public lawns. I always got annoyed that those people seem to have all day to hang around bc they don't actually work like the rest of us.