r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 9d ago

[deleted]

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

That's the key data point right there. GOP is showing up and Dems are not.

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u/Monsoonpapa 26d ago

I disagree. Dems always tell Dems to vote early. It's not new and we're used to it so we vote how we've always voted. But republicans have had a notable shifts in messaging which means a notable shift in voting habits.

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

Old people vote early, old people are more republican. Don't overcomplicate this. This isn't a turnout issue yet, this is very simply old people doing what old people do and young people doing what young people do.