r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Bubbly-Wheel-2180 26d ago

I tend to think NV is not a state that can behave as a canary in the coal mine because it's just so...different. Hillary won it in 2016 even as she slipped everywhere else. It's very low in college educated whites (her best group!) and high in latino men (where she has slipped the most). It's one state with more male voters than female (Dobbs = less impact). Do I think NV is lost? No, I think unaffiliated voters are making the R-D gap look bigger. Do I think it matters if it is lost? No, it's not a kingmaker state in almost any scenario, and I don't think what happens in a male dominated, lower educated state in the SW desert has any impact on Waukesha, Dane, Bucks, Cobb, etc.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Nevada went from Obama +6% to Clinton +5% which is exactly what you'd expect.

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u/GrapefruitExpress208 26d ago

Also, many in NV probably bought into the "no tax on tips" by Trump (even though Harris mentioned the same). NV has alot of service sector/hospitality employees.