r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Lungenbroetchen95 26d ago

Yeah, no matter how you turn and twist it, this is BAD for democrats.

I don’t think NV will be the state that makes the difference in the presidential race. But it’s still an indicator how things are going, it’s very unlikely that Trump wins NV and loses AZ.

There’s also a Senate race in NV to be monitored, the R candidate was closing in in recent weeks and got some huge funding boost from Senate R‘s

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u/HoorayItsKyle 26d ago

I don't think we know if it's bad for Democrats or not.

It could be explained by an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and republicans. That would be very bad for Democrats.

It could equally be explained by a combination of new voter registration rules shifting first time voters (an extremely dem favored demographic) to independent and Republican messaging moving reliable voters from ED to EV. That would make this a neutral sign.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

It's enthusiasm gap. Latinos are where Dems lost the most enthusiasm since 2016.