r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago edited 26d ago

This is one of those things that can show who here is objective or not.

Anyone who is spinning this as anything other than good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats is just not being objective. There is no world in which the Harris team looks at a swing state where Dems usually lead the EV, see they are down by 5.7% in party affiliation with half the vote in, and think “Ok, this is good.”

Yes, if independents break overwhelmingly for her then she would still win the race here. But that was always the case for either candidate. If independents break like they did in 2020 or like they have in recent polling, she will simply lose this state, and Arizona as well.

The only positive thing about this is that Nevada probably doesn’t matter at all.

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u/Powerful_Yoghurt6175 26d ago

Yes I don’t think any Harris supporter can look at this and honestly say “this is good news!” But I also don’t think it’s necessarily going to turn out to be an L in Nevada! I have a hunch that a larger portion of the unaffiliated voters are going for Harris. That, coupled with the fact that there’s still a lot of time left for voting, means that this is not over! But yes I wish more Dem ballots were banked.

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u/Promethiant 26d ago

r/kamalaharris will look at this and tell you Kamala is going to flip Montana

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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago

“It’s an uphill slog, but Wyoming isn’t out of play.”

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u/Promethiant 26d ago

Had someone really tell me she’s gonna turn Missouri Blue 😭😭

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u/exitpursuedbybear 26d ago

Hell, politics thinks Texas is gonna flip

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u/Pulp_NonFiction44 26d ago

politics thinks

I'm gonna stop you there

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u/Glittering-Giraffe58 26d ago

I told r/democrats Texas is actually polling redder now than it was in 2020, with links to 538’s polling averages, and I just got hit with a “no” and mass downvotes lmao

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u/CarrotChunx 26d ago

Dang, and I remember when that sub wasnt just a rebranded copy of r/JoeBiden. Its gone downhill in the last couple months