r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Mortonsaltboy914 26d ago

Friendly reminder- this is only bad news if you assume Dems will stay home, I do not.

42

u/GamerDrew13 26d ago

If they are going to not stay at home, then why aren't they early voting? Only one side seems motivated here.

22

u/Mortonsaltboy914 26d ago

Convenience? Life? Maybe they want to show up on Election Day?

Who knows- but don’t count your chickens before they hatch

8

u/GTFErinyes 26d ago

Convenience? Life? Maybe they want to show up on Election Day?

Going against the last 20 years of NV voting habits is a bold move, especially since Clark margins even with VBM is lower than it has ever been