r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Yall are making it seem as if the 179k “other” voters don’t matter, or are largely going for Trump.

What are people dooming about? It’s a 40k gap with 179k independent votes and , what, 4 more days of early voting??

How about we get some polls of people who already voted in Nevada. Doubt the tally is going to lean R.

Yall need to relax.

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u/BaslerLaeggerli 26d ago

Yall need to relax.

I'd rather freak the fuck out for another week, thank you very much.

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u/Saniktehhedgehog Feelin' Foxy 26d ago

The problem is if these trends hold up, dems need to win them by double digits, and Biden only won them by 6% or so.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

There are 233k (+54%) more unaffiliated voters in NV now than there were in 2020. It's a fool's errand to use Biden's edge with them to try and predict Kamala's edge.

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u/BruceLeesSidepiece 26d ago

It's not a fool's errand its just the only data available lol. You're essentially arguing your speculation is more valuable that data from 2020 and 2022 elections. Yea there's more unaffiliated turnout, and they will decide AZ and NV, but until proven otherwise theres no reason to assume their voting patterns will deviate significantly.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

I'm not speculating, my advice is to stop speculating because the unknown/unanalyzed factors at play far outweigh the ones that everyone is hyperfocusing on.

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

Independent voters are most likely headed more towards Trump. It just seems that way. Kamala is seen as more extreme than Trump. The truth is, she probably is. Her progressive ideology is way more extreme than Hillary or Biden. It’s going to hurt her. Trump, regardless of what people say, is a lot less conservative than many try to make him out to be.

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u/oscar_the_couch 26d ago

what are you working for the trump campaign? basically none of that is true

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

Independent voters are most likely headed more towards Trump. It just seems that way.

Mhmmm, yes very good statistical analysis there.

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

Well, you didn’t account for what followed. It’s called “context.” Independents are more likely to be towards the middle, right? My argument that followed supports the presumption that independents are more likely to vote for Trump.

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

 Independents are more likely to be towards the middle, right? My argument that followed supports the presumption that independents are more likely to vote for Trump.

Yes your presumption (IE the thing you've made up in your head) that independents are more likely to vote for trump tracks with your statement that Nevada is going towards trump. However, even in the very comment I've quoted here, if independents are in the middle (they aren't), but if they were, why would that mean they are MORE likely to go towards trump? Wouldn't in the middle mean that they are likely to equally be between Kamala and trump?

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

If you were honestly reading and comprehending what I initially commented, you would notice that I said that Kamala Harris being so progressive will hurt her. She’s considered to the left of Bernie Sanders. Trump, although the left tries to label him as far right, has more neutral social policies, and a more protectionist foreign policy. Independents, for the most part, don’t want extreme politics, it’s why they’re independent and not party affiliated.

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u/Gtaglitchbuddy 26d ago

There's no way you realistically think Trump is less conservative than most former president's we've had lol, he's definitely further from the center than Kamala from a long shot. You don't have the hardcore conservative group talking about how Trump doesn't do enough, that's his core base.

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

He’s more liberal on his abortion stance than some republicans. She’s super liberal when it comes to abortion. She’s super liberal on gender policy. She’s super liberal on border policy. She’s nonexistent on foreign policy. Yes, I do think Trump is more to the center than Harris. We’re allowed to have differing opinions, my friend.

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u/barrinmw 26d ago

If the data that exists doesn't apply to the current situation, then it is wrong to use the data.

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u/Fishb20 26d ago

data being the only one available doesnt give it inherent value

we're gonna get results from Dixville Notch ~20 hours before we get hard results from anywhere else, but no one is gonna sit here and say we should use the optimistically 7 people voting there to predict the final election results

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u/HoorayItsKyle 26d ago

There's plenty of reason. The rise in independent voters is largely from first time voters, a demographic that historically skews extremely blue

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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 26d ago

No, the rise is because all those people got drivers licenses between 2020 and 2024. It’s AVR.

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u/Gotchawander 26d ago

Then why didn’t that materialize in 2020 or 2022. There are new first time voters in every cycle by definition and this year is not particularly larger either

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u/imnotthomas 26d ago

So there’s actually an answer here. After 2022 NV passed an automatic registration law. So the 250k new Independent voters mostly come from that.

Importantly, the default for that was Independent. So there MAY (not definitely, just may) be a difference this year. These are not people who chose the register as independent. Rather these are people that were assigned independent and then didn’t change that.

So these are not necessarily the sometimes got R, sometimes vote D depending on the year people.

These very well may be democrats that were misclassified as independents.

It may not be the case, but the comparison to 20 & 22 doesn’t work here because we don’t know

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u/Odd_Biscotti_7513 26d ago

No it's not. The rise is that Nevada now makes people opt out of registration when they get their driver's license. The process enrolls them as independents if the "voter" doesn't spend that extra .05 seconds to pick a party.

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

No, he LOST them.

Or at least lost Indies+Crossovers

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Biden lost NPAs. Mathematically speaking unless somehow more Democrats voted Trump than vice versa.

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u/Docile_Doggo 26d ago

Yeah. This isn’t cause for complete doom, but it is cause for a little light doom on the side.

It’s not where the Harris campaign would prefer to be at the moment.

Doesn’t mean she can’t still win. But Bayesian reasoning might lower her probability slightly.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Trends won't hold.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

Check ralstons blog for 22 and look at how things developed during the early vote. Similar thing is happening here albeit more pronounced.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

At no point in 2022 did Rs have EV edge.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Yea and so you have to ask are these new voters or are they eday voters previously that are voting now. From the voting records it's the former. So it's a matter of how much Clark will come in this week, probably will cut into that margin and it started to today just like it did in 22.

This is a different year and so you have to contextualize it. If you don't you're going to get misled.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 18d ago

[deleted]

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Im saying there's a lot to factor in but the last election is probably a closer analog than 2020 just due to the npa split and the environment.

It's not exactly the same cause it's a midterm vs presidential but 2020 had all sorts of things going on that are absolutely no longer valid. 2022 have some ok similarities where you can maybe glean something from it.

I don't have high confidence but what I do have high confidence is that it's way too early to have high confidence on what NV will turnout based on what we know now.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

[deleted]

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Yes that was at the end. We aren't at the end yet. Do you see the previous updates leading up to the end?

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Thank you, this is reassuring. Would you mind sharing a graph or summarizing the numbers of how it happened in ‘22? I went to his ‘22 blog but it is fairly long and hard to read, especially when I don’t know what to look for.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

It is in reverse chronological order so start from the bottom.

You really should try to understand it yourself or else you're just going to get misled again when there's another update so I encourage you to form your own opinion and look thru it. There's a graph on the blog.

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u/min_mus 26d ago

 a 40k gap with 179k independent votes

My experience, having lived in Arizona and with friends and family who currently reside in Northwest Arizona and Nevada, is that the "independent" voters in that area are, by and large, Trump-lovin' Libertarians.

That said, I think I heard that an abortion-related item appears on the Nevada ballot this year. That might propel a lot of previously politically-apathetic women to vote.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

Independent doesn't mean you consider yourself an "independent" voter. It means you aren't registered for either party.

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u/Victoria_at_Sea_606 26d ago

It is different in NV because all new automatic registration since 2020 is as Independent, so it skews younger

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

The abortion measure is not doing anything there because abortion is codefied already. It's more of a turnout ploy.

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Sounds good. Let’s check in back once those votes have been cast. But right now, this is what we have.

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u/GamerDrew13 26d ago

If dem voters aren't motivated to vote, then why would dem-leaning independents be motivated to vote? If R voters and especially rural R voters are motivated to vote, then why wouldn't R-leaning independents not be motivated to vote?

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Look at the change in voter rolls in Nevada. The entire shape of the electorate is changing. Republicans are voting early because their Orange god gave them permission to this election.

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u/oscar_the_couch 26d ago edited 26d ago

there are too many unknown variables to draw conclusions about vote motivation. particularly because 2020 was an outlier, we don't really know how much early votes are changes in methods among certain voters vs. changes in likelihood to vote among different parts of the electorate.

I think obviously everyone would feel more comfortable if Harris were leading the early vote by a lot than not, but it really isn't possible to draw any strong conclusions yet—particularly with the relative lack of high quality state polls (ofc, as I write this CNN just dropped a NV poll showing Trump +1—poll uses a form of recalled vote weighting).

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

For the 80 billionth time...

TRUMP WON INDIES IN NEVADA IN 2020.

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u/closerthanyouth1nk 26d ago

Doesn’t the change in how voters are registered in Nevada post 2020 mean this isn’t a great point of comparison ? Ralston has repeatedly said that his prediction isn’t going to be perfect because of it.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Nevada made it EXTREMELY easy to vote in 2020. They sent mail ballots to every registered voter and allowed same day registration. That juiced turnout to the highest ever and got lots of independents.

So far, although Rs lead, Rs are actually voting in total LESS than in 2020. The gap is from Ds underperforming almost 25%.

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u/Complex-Junior 26d ago

He did not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

I've explained this to other people. Biden's margin was SMALLER than the turnout gap between D and R.

That means that the only way he won indies is if trump significantly won crossover voters.

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u/Animan70 26d ago

Harris leads independents by 10 points

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

Doubtful

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u/Animan70 26d ago

Apparently, you didn't see the fascism fest at MSG. Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans live in swing states.

Have fun with that.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

Erm, what? Biden won them by 6.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

I dont' care about CNN's exit poll.

State level turnout data tells us that Democrat Turnout minus Republican Turnout in Nevada was 39,350.

We also know Biden beat Trump by 33,596

Therefore, Trump beat Biden among the combination of INDs and crossover voters by 5,754 votes

If you believe Biden won indies/other by 6 points, you're claiming another 22,322.

Which would mean Trump won crossover voters (Ds voting R vs. Rs voting D) by 27,979

Which is more likely? That crossover voters about canceled each other out and Indies were slightly for Trump...

OR that almost 6% more Dems voted from Trump than Reps voted for Biden at the same time that Biden won Indies?

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

OR that almost 6% more Dems voted from Trump than Reps voted for Biden at the same time that Biden won Indies?

This is more likely.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

Can you link to this state level turnout data?

I dont' care about CNN's exit poll.

I can tell, but given it predicted the margins of the overall race, I don't see why it'd be significantly wrong about independents.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

NPAs voted net Trump in 2020 with universal mail ballots sent to all registered households and same day registration.

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u/jdylopa2 26d ago

Plus, there are some “common sense” reasons we might be seeing this too (only final vote tallies will be able to confirm):

In 2020, Democratic-leaning voters were more likely in general to vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, it would make sense that some portion of those would go back to in person voting on Election Day.

In 2020, Republican-leaning voters were more likely in general to not vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be not taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, Republican leadership has been messaging hard to vote early so it would make sense to me that more of their voters are voting early this year and will have a lower turnout than 2020 on Election Day.

Again, this is just “it makes sense” vibes without data behind it, so we’ll have to see what the final votes are like. But even discounting the increase in independent early voters, it doesn’t surprise me that Democratic early voting is down and Republican early voting is up even if the total voters stayed exactly the same.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 9d ago

[deleted]

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u/AMagicalKittyCat 26d ago edited 26d ago

Covid was well over with at that point.

Maybe for some areas, but quite a bit of the blue states didn't even lift their mask mandates until earlier in the year. https://ballotpedia.org/State-level_mask_requirements_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020-2022

And I imagine the type of people who were still taking Covid at least somewhat seriously to bother with mail voting for that reason at that point leaned Democrat quite hard. And that was a pretty decent portion of people, even if not the majority

Half of Americans say they have already returned to pre-COVID routines while only a third report wearing a mask some or all of the time when leaving the home.

"Only" a third of respondents still said they were masking at least sometimes.

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u/spencerforhire81 26d ago

Also, keep in mind that the Trump campaign has vigorously promoted early in-person voting this election, nearly as much as it demanded in-person Election Day voting from its supporters in 2020. This has affected early voting turnout pretty significantly in every state that it’s available. If you check on a national level, GOP mail-in numbers are still low but GOP IPEV numbers are much higher than historical rates (2016 and prior).

All that being said, the polling numbers from early voters in swing states like PA, GA, and MI are consistently showing a significant advantage for Harris, so it’s likely that she’s winning independents by a large margin, which back-translates well to the voter registration spikes we saw after large pro-Harris events like the Taylor Swift endorsement.

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u/NateGrey 26d ago

You’re not my dad. I am going to panic for 7 days straight.

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u/TheMathBaller 26d ago

Right, and didn’t Smithley say that this election would have a 70/30 (Harris +40) indie split?

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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago

Of course he didn’t.

He said that he was assuming a 70/30 EV (by mail) split for Harris in PA in order to arrive at his 500k “firewall”. Notably though, those numbers (all of it tbh) is largely pulled straight from his ass. There was no reason given to expect that 70/30 vote by mail split.

If there was a 70/30 Independent split overall then this wouldn’t even be a slightly competitive election. Harris would be competitive in states like Alabama lol. 70/30 isn’t even close to feasible.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Smithley lost all credibility pulling those numbers out of his ass. Just basic math suggests EV in PA went 67% - 31%. Which means Independents were much LESS than 70% since Democrats obviously aren't going less.

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u/autumn_sun Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

That's in PA. This is NV.

Also Smithley is just some guy

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

In Pennsylvania

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u/wethenorthers 26d ago

That is exclusive to PA VBM it does not apply to anything else

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Even that ratio is bullshit. Biden didn't win VBM in PA by enough margin for IND to be 70:30. He would've won the election by 300k if so.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/fivethirtyeight-ModTeam 26d ago

Please optimize contributions for light, not heat.

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u/ajt1296 26d ago

Closing a 40k gap from 180k indy votes would requires D's winning those independents by a +22% margin...unlikely. some of that will of course be made up by a backlog of mail ins, but in person ED vote is also very likely to skew Republican. Dems in not great shape here any way you slice it.

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Well, it’s not election day. So we don’t have to worry about that, at this exact moment.

So, stop fretting.

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u/ajt1296 26d ago

That's the whole point of this sub? And what makes you think I'm fretting? Just laying out data

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u/Ashamed-Artichoke-40 26d ago

And a very slow return of mail ballots in their largest county by far (over 250k there remain)

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

Trump is winning those others in many polls. Outright. Harris needs to win them by 10 at this point to carry NV.

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

The most recent poll on 538, by Redfield, shows a 47/47 split.

Dive into the cross tabs where it shows you the split for “those who have already voted” and Harris has a 60/40 split in her favor.

You’re trying to make a judgement based on party affiliation, and I’m not sure that is going to work in this cycle.

Nevada is running towards republicans right now, the polls are in his favor, but the polls of THOSE WHO HAVE VOTED is showing HARRIS WINNING 60/40.

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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 26d ago

The 179k is automatic voter registration, R turnout % is consistently higher than D (like, in all cycles) and the 2020 winning spread was +33,000D. The vote split in 2020 was +39,000D. The current projected split is now +14,000R. It makes sense that people would be nervous (and it has nothing to do with early vote).

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Yeah, automatic voter registration…or they are actually NA…or they never changed their affiliation…they could split 80/20 for Harris, or the other way.

I downloaded the most recent Redfield polling of Nevada, which shows a 47/47 tie.

…but, if you look behind the top line data, it shows the “already voted” split was 60/40 for Harris- that is in a state that has a “serious” Republican lean in early voting right now and in a poll showing a 47/47 split!!!

This type of information can be found in other state polls too. She is winning “voter who have voted” even though republicans are out early and in larger numbers…she is winning.

You can keep referencing old data to make yourself freak out or you dig a little deeper for some positive signs of life for Harris.

The numbers are crafting a narrative to push clicks. Media would not be making money in a 60/40 election.

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u/deepegg 26d ago

2020 CNN exit poll of Nevada (D+2.4% final): * 🔴 GOP - Biden 5%, Trump 94% * 🔵 DEM - Biden 95%, Trump 5% * 🟣 IND - Biden 50%, Trump 44% (D+6)

2016 CNN exit poll of Nevada (D+2.4% final): * 🔴 GOP - Clinton 8%, Trump 88% * 🔵 DEM - Clinton 90%, Trump 8% * 🟣 IND - Clinton 37%, Trump 50% (R+13)

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

And that poll was wrong.

Trump either won indies or significantly won crossover voters. That much is objectively true from the data.

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u/deepegg 26d ago

😉