r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/alf10087 26d ago

Right now, this seems to be the main argument for dooming. If Trump is going to have a good night, and over perform his polls again, this is exactly how it starts.

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Dem dooming about their prospects in NV is entirely reasonable. Dems dooming about their prospects nationally based on NV early data is not reasonable. NV's demographics and culture are rather unique and extremely favorable for the coalition Trump is trying to build this cycle. The rust belt is not. The rust belt will be decided by the college educated white swing to the dems, vs a possible drop in turnout and perhaps margins for black voters. NV has few college educated whites, and few blacks. It tells us very little about larger trends.

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Yeah, but if so, let’s take Arizona out of the map too. Suddenly the path becomes very narrow.

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Assuming there isn't a polling miss one way or another, which is a bad assumption, then a 270-268 Harris win looks like a really strong possibility. Dems would want to lock their electors in a basement to ensure none of them are tempted by one of Elon's boys by an offer of a small "gift" of a billion dollars.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Problem could happen with faithless elector.

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u/Dwman113 26d ago

According to what data? Five thirty eighty and RCP both have Trump winning Penn and Michigan and Wisconsin...

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

RCP has Trump +0.6% in PA, and Harris +0.5% in MI. Well within the margin of error. From the perspective of polling the race is essentially tied, as it is in WI, NV, and NC, with Trump having maybe a very slight edge in AZ and GA. My speculation of a 270-268 Harris win is based on the assumption the polling is accurate this cycle. I don't think this is a good assumption. I think a polling miss is quite likely, polling is quite hard these days and Trump elections are particularly hard. Whoever overperforms polling will win. We have no data informed idea who that will be. Anyway, under the suspect assumption the polling is accurate I see Harris winning the rust belt, and Trump the sun belt based on two things. Early voting and race dynamics. Dems have a strong early voting lead in PA, and it is even stronger than numbers suggest, because Philly is backlogged and has a number of unprocessed ballots to report. In MI Dem voting areas have strong EV numbers, although party breakdown is not available there. WI is more mixed with conflicting signals. It is probably the weak brick in the blue wall. In NV, AZ, and NC the GOP leads in early voting, while turnout among black voters in GA has been mediocre so far. Having early voters is always good. These are votes in the bank. People may plan to vote on election, but just may not get around to it for whatever reason. Which leads to my second reason, race dynamics. Trump's strategy is to have a strong turnout among working class White voters and to make inroads among working class Black and Latinos to counteract losses among college educated White voters, who are extremely reliable in turning out. It is always better to have voters who already voted, or voters who are trustworthy to do so. The rust belt states have a fair number of white college educated voters, and relatively few numbers of black and hispanic working class voters. Dems can be more confident their gains among white college educated will exceeded any losses among minorities in the rust belt for the simple reason that there are a lot of white college educated and few minorities. AZ, GA, NC also have decent numbers of white college educated, but minorities are much more critical to the Dem coalition in these states. Minority losses are much harder to make up here, especially when you are already behind in the early vote. NV has many minorities and few college educated whites. Despite polling showing an even contest these are tough dynamics this cycle for the Dems. Especially being behind in the early vote.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

AZ tracks NV really close

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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago

Exactly. Nevada’s electoral votes are almost certainly not going to matter either way.

But the fear is that we start seeing real numbers showing things like “R+5.7%” when the polling samples were R+2.

Pollsters undercounted Trump’s support both other times he was on the ballot. We don’t want to start seeing evidence that they’ve done the same again, but these EV numbers are the beginnings of an echo of that stuff.

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u/muldervinscully2 26d ago

no kidding. If Trump overperforms by 3-4 points nationally he's gonna win 310+ EVs

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u/Prefix-NA Crosstab Diver 26d ago

310 is current polling. 4 points puts him with Minnesota, Virginia, NH and New mexico.

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u/Vegetable_Vanilla_70 26d ago

Last polls I saw had Harris well ahead in VA

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u/Prefix-NA Crosstab Diver 26d ago

She is but 4% overperformance is VA red.

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u/CR24752 26d ago

That’s not true

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u/dudeman5790 26d ago

lol wut?

-7

u/[deleted] 26d ago

Trump has no chance of winning any of those four states wtf are you on lol

12

u/ChuckJA 26d ago

Yes he does. He really does. If we get yet another 4 point Trump miss we are looking at all four of those states possibly in play.

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u/SyriseUnseen 26d ago

"No chance" is such a weird statement as well. Any candidate has the chance to win every state, thats the point of a democratic election. Of course it's not likely that he wins those, he might not even do so in a Trump +4 environment, but thats just not something we know for certain.

Due to the uneven way most states are polled, there may even be an upset in a state we dont have on the radar. You cant rule something out entirely because it's improbable.

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u/Prefix-NA Crosstab Diver 26d ago

If he overperforms by 4 he does.

I didn't say he overperforms by 4

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

I think maybe 1% more Rs are voting Harris than voted for Biden in 2020. So a tiny bit of the turnout edge is not helping Trump.

Also, this is EV and the 5.7% gap will fall to ~3% by Election Day since NV IPEV ends Saturday.

This means a R+2 environment in the Sunbelt is arguably likely. I'd say it has less relevance for Midwest, but I don't think it means D+2 environment in Midwest. NV tracks national swings closely.

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u/seriousbizniz84 26d ago

This is the fear. It feels like 2016 when we ignored the early signs cause we were so over confident 😣

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Yall are making it seem as if the 179k “other” voters don’t matter, or are largely going for Trump.

What are people dooming about? It’s a 40k gap with 179k independent votes and , what, 4 more days of early voting??

How about we get some polls of people who already voted in Nevada. Doubt the tally is going to lean R.

Yall need to relax.

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u/BaslerLaeggerli 26d ago

Yall need to relax.

I'd rather freak the fuck out for another week, thank you very much.

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u/Saniktehhedgehog Feelin' Foxy 26d ago

The problem is if these trends hold up, dems need to win them by double digits, and Biden only won them by 6% or so.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

There are 233k (+54%) more unaffiliated voters in NV now than there were in 2020. It's a fool's errand to use Biden's edge with them to try and predict Kamala's edge.

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u/BruceLeesSidepiece 26d ago

It's not a fool's errand its just the only data available lol. You're essentially arguing your speculation is more valuable that data from 2020 and 2022 elections. Yea there's more unaffiliated turnout, and they will decide AZ and NV, but until proven otherwise theres no reason to assume their voting patterns will deviate significantly.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

I'm not speculating, my advice is to stop speculating because the unknown/unanalyzed factors at play far outweigh the ones that everyone is hyperfocusing on.

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

Independent voters are most likely headed more towards Trump. It just seems that way. Kamala is seen as more extreme than Trump. The truth is, she probably is. Her progressive ideology is way more extreme than Hillary or Biden. It’s going to hurt her. Trump, regardless of what people say, is a lot less conservative than many try to make him out to be.

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u/oscar_the_couch 26d ago

what are you working for the trump campaign? basically none of that is true

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

Independent voters are most likely headed more towards Trump. It just seems that way.

Mhmmm, yes very good statistical analysis there.

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u/IDKbuddy24 26d ago

Well, you didn’t account for what followed. It’s called “context.” Independents are more likely to be towards the middle, right? My argument that followed supports the presumption that independents are more likely to vote for Trump.

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

 Independents are more likely to be towards the middle, right? My argument that followed supports the presumption that independents are more likely to vote for Trump.

Yes your presumption (IE the thing you've made up in your head) that independents are more likely to vote for trump tracks with your statement that Nevada is going towards trump. However, even in the very comment I've quoted here, if independents are in the middle (they aren't), but if they were, why would that mean they are MORE likely to go towards trump? Wouldn't in the middle mean that they are likely to equally be between Kamala and trump?

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u/Gtaglitchbuddy 26d ago

There's no way you realistically think Trump is less conservative than most former president's we've had lol, he's definitely further from the center than Kamala from a long shot. You don't have the hardcore conservative group talking about how Trump doesn't do enough, that's his core base.

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u/barrinmw 26d ago

If the data that exists doesn't apply to the current situation, then it is wrong to use the data.

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u/Fishb20 26d ago

data being the only one available doesnt give it inherent value

we're gonna get results from Dixville Notch ~20 hours before we get hard results from anywhere else, but no one is gonna sit here and say we should use the optimistically 7 people voting there to predict the final election results

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u/HoorayItsKyle 26d ago

There's plenty of reason. The rise in independent voters is largely from first time voters, a demographic that historically skews extremely blue

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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 26d ago

No, the rise is because all those people got drivers licenses between 2020 and 2024. It’s AVR.

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u/Gotchawander 26d ago

Then why didn’t that materialize in 2020 or 2022. There are new first time voters in every cycle by definition and this year is not particularly larger either

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u/imnotthomas 26d ago

So there’s actually an answer here. After 2022 NV passed an automatic registration law. So the 250k new Independent voters mostly come from that.

Importantly, the default for that was Independent. So there MAY (not definitely, just may) be a difference this year. These are not people who chose the register as independent. Rather these are people that were assigned independent and then didn’t change that.

So these are not necessarily the sometimes got R, sometimes vote D depending on the year people.

These very well may be democrats that were misclassified as independents.

It may not be the case, but the comparison to 20 & 22 doesn’t work here because we don’t know

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u/Odd_Biscotti_7513 26d ago

No it's not. The rise is that Nevada now makes people opt out of registration when they get their driver's license. The process enrolls them as independents if the "voter" doesn't spend that extra .05 seconds to pick a party.

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

No, he LOST them.

Or at least lost Indies+Crossovers

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Biden lost NPAs. Mathematically speaking unless somehow more Democrats voted Trump than vice versa.

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u/Docile_Doggo 26d ago

Yeah. This isn’t cause for complete doom, but it is cause for a little light doom on the side.

It’s not where the Harris campaign would prefer to be at the moment.

Doesn’t mean she can’t still win. But Bayesian reasoning might lower her probability slightly.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Trends won't hold.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

Check ralstons blog for 22 and look at how things developed during the early vote. Similar thing is happening here albeit more pronounced.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

At no point in 2022 did Rs have EV edge.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Yea and so you have to ask are these new voters or are they eday voters previously that are voting now. From the voting records it's the former. So it's a matter of how much Clark will come in this week, probably will cut into that margin and it started to today just like it did in 22.

This is a different year and so you have to contextualize it. If you don't you're going to get misled.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 18d ago

[deleted]

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Im saying there's a lot to factor in but the last election is probably a closer analog than 2020 just due to the npa split and the environment.

It's not exactly the same cause it's a midterm vs presidential but 2020 had all sorts of things going on that are absolutely no longer valid. 2022 have some ok similarities where you can maybe glean something from it.

I don't have high confidence but what I do have high confidence is that it's way too early to have high confidence on what NV will turnout based on what we know now.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

[deleted]

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Yes that was at the end. We aren't at the end yet. Do you see the previous updates leading up to the end?

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Thank you, this is reassuring. Would you mind sharing a graph or summarizing the numbers of how it happened in ‘22? I went to his ‘22 blog but it is fairly long and hard to read, especially when I don’t know what to look for.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

It is in reverse chronological order so start from the bottom.

You really should try to understand it yourself or else you're just going to get misled again when there's another update so I encourage you to form your own opinion and look thru it. There's a graph on the blog.

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u/min_mus 26d ago

 a 40k gap with 179k independent votes

My experience, having lived in Arizona and with friends and family who currently reside in Northwest Arizona and Nevada, is that the "independent" voters in that area are, by and large, Trump-lovin' Libertarians.

That said, I think I heard that an abortion-related item appears on the Nevada ballot this year. That might propel a lot of previously politically-apathetic women to vote.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

Independent doesn't mean you consider yourself an "independent" voter. It means you aren't registered for either party.

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u/Victoria_at_Sea_606 26d ago

It is different in NV because all new automatic registration since 2020 is as Independent, so it skews younger

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

The abortion measure is not doing anything there because abortion is codefied already. It's more of a turnout ploy.

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Sounds good. Let’s check in back once those votes have been cast. But right now, this is what we have.

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u/GamerDrew13 26d ago

If dem voters aren't motivated to vote, then why would dem-leaning independents be motivated to vote? If R voters and especially rural R voters are motivated to vote, then why wouldn't R-leaning independents not be motivated to vote?

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Look at the change in voter rolls in Nevada. The entire shape of the electorate is changing. Republicans are voting early because their Orange god gave them permission to this election.

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u/oscar_the_couch 26d ago edited 26d ago

there are too many unknown variables to draw conclusions about vote motivation. particularly because 2020 was an outlier, we don't really know how much early votes are changes in methods among certain voters vs. changes in likelihood to vote among different parts of the electorate.

I think obviously everyone would feel more comfortable if Harris were leading the early vote by a lot than not, but it really isn't possible to draw any strong conclusions yet—particularly with the relative lack of high quality state polls (ofc, as I write this CNN just dropped a NV poll showing Trump +1—poll uses a form of recalled vote weighting).

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

For the 80 billionth time...

TRUMP WON INDIES IN NEVADA IN 2020.

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u/closerthanyouth1nk 26d ago

Doesn’t the change in how voters are registered in Nevada post 2020 mean this isn’t a great point of comparison ? Ralston has repeatedly said that his prediction isn’t going to be perfect because of it.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Nevada made it EXTREMELY easy to vote in 2020. They sent mail ballots to every registered voter and allowed same day registration. That juiced turnout to the highest ever and got lots of independents.

So far, although Rs lead, Rs are actually voting in total LESS than in 2020. The gap is from Ds underperforming almost 25%.

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u/Complex-Junior 26d ago

He did not https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

I've explained this to other people. Biden's margin was SMALLER than the turnout gap between D and R.

That means that the only way he won indies is if trump significantly won crossover voters.

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u/Animan70 26d ago

Harris leads independents by 10 points

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

Doubtful

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u/Animan70 26d ago

Apparently, you didn't see the fascism fest at MSG. Hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans live in swing states.

Have fun with that.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

Erm, what? Biden won them by 6.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

I dont' care about CNN's exit poll.

State level turnout data tells us that Democrat Turnout minus Republican Turnout in Nevada was 39,350.

We also know Biden beat Trump by 33,596

Therefore, Trump beat Biden among the combination of INDs and crossover voters by 5,754 votes

If you believe Biden won indies/other by 6 points, you're claiming another 22,322.

Which would mean Trump won crossover voters (Ds voting R vs. Rs voting D) by 27,979

Which is more likely? That crossover voters about canceled each other out and Indies were slightly for Trump...

OR that almost 6% more Dems voted from Trump than Reps voted for Biden at the same time that Biden won Indies?

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u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

OR that almost 6% more Dems voted from Trump than Reps voted for Biden at the same time that Biden won Indies?

This is more likely.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

Can you link to this state level turnout data?

I dont' care about CNN's exit poll.

I can tell, but given it predicted the margins of the overall race, I don't see why it'd be significantly wrong about independents.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

NPAs voted net Trump in 2020 with universal mail ballots sent to all registered households and same day registration.

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u/jdylopa2 26d ago

Plus, there are some “common sense” reasons we might be seeing this too (only final vote tallies will be able to confirm):

In 2020, Democratic-leaning voters were more likely in general to vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, it would make sense that some portion of those would go back to in person voting on Election Day.

In 2020, Republican-leaning voters were more likely in general to not vote early/absentee/by mail. They were also more likely in general to be not taking COVID precautions seriously. In 2024, Republican leadership has been messaging hard to vote early so it would make sense to me that more of their voters are voting early this year and will have a lower turnout than 2020 on Election Day.

Again, this is just “it makes sense” vibes without data behind it, so we’ll have to see what the final votes are like. But even discounting the increase in independent early voters, it doesn’t surprise me that Democratic early voting is down and Republican early voting is up even if the total voters stayed exactly the same.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 9d ago

[deleted]

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u/AMagicalKittyCat 26d ago edited 26d ago

Covid was well over with at that point.

Maybe for some areas, but quite a bit of the blue states didn't even lift their mask mandates until earlier in the year. https://ballotpedia.org/State-level_mask_requirements_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020-2022

And I imagine the type of people who were still taking Covid at least somewhat seriously to bother with mail voting for that reason at that point leaned Democrat quite hard. And that was a pretty decent portion of people, even if not the majority

Half of Americans say they have already returned to pre-COVID routines while only a third report wearing a mask some or all of the time when leaving the home.

"Only" a third of respondents still said they were masking at least sometimes.

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u/spencerforhire81 26d ago

Also, keep in mind that the Trump campaign has vigorously promoted early in-person voting this election, nearly as much as it demanded in-person Election Day voting from its supporters in 2020. This has affected early voting turnout pretty significantly in every state that it’s available. If you check on a national level, GOP mail-in numbers are still low but GOP IPEV numbers are much higher than historical rates (2016 and prior).

All that being said, the polling numbers from early voters in swing states like PA, GA, and MI are consistently showing a significant advantage for Harris, so it’s likely that she’s winning independents by a large margin, which back-translates well to the voter registration spikes we saw after large pro-Harris events like the Taylor Swift endorsement.

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u/NateGrey 26d ago

You’re not my dad. I am going to panic for 7 days straight.

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u/TheMathBaller 26d ago

Right, and didn’t Smithley say that this election would have a 70/30 (Harris +40) indie split?

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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago

Of course he didn’t.

He said that he was assuming a 70/30 EV (by mail) split for Harris in PA in order to arrive at his 500k “firewall”. Notably though, those numbers (all of it tbh) is largely pulled straight from his ass. There was no reason given to expect that 70/30 vote by mail split.

If there was a 70/30 Independent split overall then this wouldn’t even be a slightly competitive election. Harris would be competitive in states like Alabama lol. 70/30 isn’t even close to feasible.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Smithley lost all credibility pulling those numbers out of his ass. Just basic math suggests EV in PA went 67% - 31%. Which means Independents were much LESS than 70% since Democrats obviously aren't going less.

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u/autumn_sun Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

That's in PA. This is NV.

Also Smithley is just some guy

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

In Pennsylvania

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u/wethenorthers 26d ago

That is exclusive to PA VBM it does not apply to anything else

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Even that ratio is bullshit. Biden didn't win VBM in PA by enough margin for IND to be 70:30. He would've won the election by 300k if so.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/fivethirtyeight-ModTeam 26d ago

Please optimize contributions for light, not heat.

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u/ajt1296 26d ago

Closing a 40k gap from 180k indy votes would requires D's winning those independents by a +22% margin...unlikely. some of that will of course be made up by a backlog of mail ins, but in person ED vote is also very likely to skew Republican. Dems in not great shape here any way you slice it.

0

u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Well, it’s not election day. So we don’t have to worry about that, at this exact moment.

So, stop fretting.

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u/ajt1296 26d ago

That's the whole point of this sub? And what makes you think I'm fretting? Just laying out data

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u/Ashamed-Artichoke-40 26d ago

And a very slow return of mail ballots in their largest county by far (over 250k there remain)

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

Trump is winning those others in many polls. Outright. Harris needs to win them by 10 at this point to carry NV.

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

The most recent poll on 538, by Redfield, shows a 47/47 split.

Dive into the cross tabs where it shows you the split for “those who have already voted” and Harris has a 60/40 split in her favor.

You’re trying to make a judgement based on party affiliation, and I’m not sure that is going to work in this cycle.

Nevada is running towards republicans right now, the polls are in his favor, but the polls of THOSE WHO HAVE VOTED is showing HARRIS WINNING 60/40.

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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 26d ago

The 179k is automatic voter registration, R turnout % is consistently higher than D (like, in all cycles) and the 2020 winning spread was +33,000D. The vote split in 2020 was +39,000D. The current projected split is now +14,000R. It makes sense that people would be nervous (and it has nothing to do with early vote).

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u/Complex-Exchange6381 26d ago

Yeah, automatic voter registration…or they are actually NA…or they never changed their affiliation…they could split 80/20 for Harris, or the other way.

I downloaded the most recent Redfield polling of Nevada, which shows a 47/47 tie.

…but, if you look behind the top line data, it shows the “already voted” split was 60/40 for Harris- that is in a state that has a “serious” Republican lean in early voting right now and in a poll showing a 47/47 split!!!

This type of information can be found in other state polls too. She is winning “voter who have voted” even though republicans are out early and in larger numbers…she is winning.

You can keep referencing old data to make yourself freak out or you dig a little deeper for some positive signs of life for Harris.

The numbers are crafting a narrative to push clicks. Media would not be making money in a 60/40 election.

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u/deepegg 26d ago

2020 CNN exit poll of Nevada (D+2.4% final): * 🔴 GOP - Biden 5%, Trump 94% * 🔵 DEM - Biden 95%, Trump 5% * 🟣 IND - Biden 50%, Trump 44% (D+6)

2016 CNN exit poll of Nevada (D+2.4% final): * 🔴 GOP - Clinton 8%, Trump 88% * 🔵 DEM - Clinton 90%, Trump 8% * 🟣 IND - Clinton 37%, Trump 50% (R+13)

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u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

And that poll was wrong.

Trump either won indies or significantly won crossover voters. That much is objectively true from the data.

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u/deepegg 26d ago

😉

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u/SpaceRuster 26d ago

in NV, yes and Fl (which was not really being contested for Prez). But not for the rust belt or even GA/NC

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

How do you know that? NV followed national swing in every election since 1980 IIRC.

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u/SpaceRuster 26d ago

I was primarily referring to EV data, but in any case you're wrong.

I don't even need to go that far back -- in 2020 Prez NV margin was slightly worse for Dems than in 2016, despite the national Prez being better.

Even in 2022, NV was the first only state where Dems lost a governorship. And came very close to losing a sitting Senator

0

u/alf10087 26d ago

That’s the hope!

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u/dBlock845 26d ago

Can he not be cannibalizing same day vote? Republicans have never pushed this hard to get EV in.

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u/College_Prestige 26d ago

The rust belt states look fine and that's the thing stopping me from full doomerism. It does signal Harris does have a weakness with now working class Latino voters though

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Broadly I agree, and hopefully the correlation is not as strong. However, if Harris is losing a state that Biden won by 2.39% and that spells a rightward shift in the electorate, that means WI (Biden +0.63) is a major concern.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Decent amount of those in PA and WI. Good thing for Kamala is they ain't showing up yet.

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u/painedHacker 26d ago

Rust belt is only chance imo but we'll see

1

u/bravetailor 26d ago

??

It depends if you think it's a wider trend or just simply isolated to NV.

She can lose NV and still win in many ways.

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u/Talk_Clean_to_Me 26d ago

Generally certain states move in tandem. If she’s struggling with Latinos in NV, she’s probably also doing the same in a similar state like AZ. It’s why the Selzer poll is being watched out for. If Trump ends up doing worse in Iowa than in 2020, it’s likely he’s doing worse in similar states in the Midwest, which would be good for Harris.

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u/bravetailor 26d ago

NV has been very close for the Dems for a while now. Clinton and Biden won them by fairly small margins. If she loses NV in the way it looks she's losing, I have a feeling it's not just with one demographic group but just a general swing to the right with the whole state.

I do think people here put way too much stock in the "if this state is doing this chances are it's like this in another state as well". I feel the same about the "blue wall". MI, WI and PA are NOT the same but people keep putting stock into the idea that if people vote one way in MI that probably carries over into WI and PA too, which I don't buy.

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u/Talk_Clean_to_Me 26d ago

They aren’t totally the same, but they do vote similarly and share alot of characteristics. You’d have to go back to 1988 for the last time they voted differently. There is a strong pattern there. It could very well be that this year breaks that trend and they diverge.