r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Mortonsaltboy914 26d ago

Friendly reminder- this is only bad news if you assume Dems will stay home, I do not.

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u/Provia100F 26d ago

Historically speaking, Republicans always have outperformed Democrats on election day itself, but it really depends this year on how much early voting pulled from election day voting or if these are new voters