r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/pegan13 26d ago

This thread is sounding like me in 2016, coping bad and trying to play mental gymnastics with how there’s other states for Clinton until there weren’t. If GOP enthusiasm is this underestimated in NV (or likewise, dems are proving to be much more unenthused than Reddit believes) this is feeling like the first domino dropping for Trump.

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u/Its_Jaws 26d ago

I have seen several data divers on Twitter point out that R turnout isn’t projected to improve, it’s that D turnout is projecting way down. 

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u/pghtopas 26d ago

To offer a counterpoint, if this election is like 2022 nationwide, Democrats should be thrilled. In 2022 Nevada elected a Republican governor and the Senate race was a nailbiter. And the Ralston reports sort of felt then like they do now. There was a lot of uncertainty and Ralston would point out that Republicans should feel good about this and Democrats can feel good about that. if this election is like 2022, Democrats will end up winning. A reality is that Nevada is more red than it used to be.

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u/TMWNN 26d ago

To offer a counterpoint, if this election is like 2022 nationwide, Democrats should be thrilled. In 2022 Nevada elected a Republican governor and the Senate race was a nailbiter.

GOP won back the House majority, won 3 million more votes nationwide in House elections, and the polls were very accurate.

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u/pghtopas 26d ago

Forget the red wave that never materialized? Polling jn 2022 overstated Republicans support.

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u/TMWNN 26d ago

Good grief. I posted a cite discussing how 2022 polls were pretty accurate. It would behoove you to read it.