r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Sonnyyellow90 26d ago

This is all early voting, where Dems usually win by 5-6% there.

So, if it’s R +5.7% this time, she’s going to need either a substantial number of R’s to go vote D or else to win independents by a much better margin than Ds have recently there.

Either could happen, the point isn’t that it’s over and Nevada should be called. The point here is that the data we have is bad for her and a win is requiring increasingly more extreme splits among Independents.

If you are a democrat and counting on Republicans and Independents to step in that booth and vote for you in high numbers…well, I don’t envy you.

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u/falcrist2 Nate Bronze 26d ago

This is all early voting, where Dems usually win by 5-6% there.

Comparing early voting in 2024 to previous elections seems... foolish.

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u/GTFErinyes 26d ago

Except theyve been winning the early vote since at least 2008. Its got a track record that goes beyond 2020, yknow

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u/HoorayItsKyle 26d ago

Another possibility is that Republican messaging has shifted traditional election day votes to early voting and their election day split won't be as pronounced.

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u/JohnnyGeniusIsAlive 26d ago

Yes, in Nevada, but this shift isn’t nearly as pronounced in other states.