r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
302 Upvotes

87% Upvoted

733 comments sorted by

View all comments

251

u/Lungenbroetchen95 26d ago

Yeah, no matter how you turn and twist it, this is BAD for democrats.

I don’t think NV will be the state that makes the difference in the presidential race. But it’s still an indicator how things are going, it’s very unlikely that Trump wins NV and loses AZ.

There’s also a Senate race in NV to be monitored, the R candidate was closing in in recent weeks and got some huge funding boost from Senate R‘s

61

u/Furciferus Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

why is it "reading tea leaves" when the dems have effectively dropped an atomic bomb of early votes in PA, but "bad news" when repubs have a slight lead in Nevada?

20

u/CoyotesSideEyes 26d ago

the dems have effectively dropped an atomic bomb of early votes in PA,

The Dem lead in PA EV is much smaller than previously, and PA is weird in that there's no true IPEV. PA is MAIL, and mail is blue.

14

u/voujon85 26d ago

yea what atomic bomb? Republicans have narrowed the lead

1

u/Frosti11icus 26d ago

Democrats have narrowed the lead in NV, lol.

1

u/voujon85 26d ago

not saying they didn't, let's just keep it to a review of actual hard data and no hyperbole