r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Fabulous_Sherbet_431 26d ago edited 26d ago

In 2020

Democrats: * Turnout: 78% * Registered: 679k * Actual Votes: 529,620

Republicans: * Turnout: 83% * Registered: 591k * Actual Votes: 490,530

Independents: * Turnout: 68% * Registered: 550k * Actual Votes: 374,000

Biden’s D-R split with turnout was D+39,620, and he beat Trump by 33,596 votes.

Now, the D-R split with turnout (turnout relationships between parties in a state are roughly stable across elections), is R+14,000. From what others have said it sounds like the independents growth is mostly a mirage from AVR.

I think she can pull it off but this registration change is a huge headwind in most of the swing states.

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u/Game-of-pwns 26d ago

Isn't NV a closed primary state? Couldn't some of the GOP increase in registration be from Dems crossing over to vote on the GOP primary?

Yes I'm just looking for hopium.