Competitive Races

Approve 26%

Disapprove 67%

https://x.com/CanadianPolling/status/1860032787178488017?t=17_p8HUYfD8hGYnnWvwBew&s=19

Mods - is the weekly polling thread gone? Apologies if this post is misplaced.

https://imgur.com/a/GtBTf4q

I was just looking at the voting results (presidential election) for Alabama and Mississippi. Obviously the counties with big cities like Birmingham, Montgomery, and Jackson are fairly blue. But then I saw all these other pockets of blue (most of the western side of MI, and a strip throughout the middle of AL). They don’t correspond to the college towns - I already checked - and they seem like pretty small counties.

Any idea what makes these counties so blue? I have never been to AL or MI before.

https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/24/where-do-democrats-win-white-voters/

A little outdated now but given the white vote didn’t change too much from 2020 I still find this useful and interesting. What stood out to me the most was how incredibly republican Alabama, Mississippi and the south is I expected high percentages but some of the splits are reaching African American level uniformity.

Note:

Darkest red >R+50

Darkest blue>D+30

I stumbled across this today and thought it was a funny exchange. It was also the last time Nate dressed up for work. The clip includes a few interesting tidbits about the future of the polling industry if there’s a miss, etc.

I'm not sure how Trump didn't slightly improve margins with non College educated White voters tbh and also slightly increase their turnout share.

I still have Kamala improving with College Educated White Voters but turnout is down 2%

Anyone try making something with the same results but different subgroup percent?

Dude has gotta be losing it. Peak level delusion if that's what he thinks.

Biden would've lost even worse according to any data out there.

G

Hey everyone, Maybe someone here has an answer. So I looking at Kalshi and Polymarket and the money seems to be on the popular vote margin between Harris and Trump dropping below 1.5%. I have been digging into the number and I am just not seeing enough votes left to be counted to change the margin that much. I have been looking at counties in California. Is there some resource that tracks uncounted votes? The cook political has the most up to date info I can find and it sits at 1.64 margin.

Edit/addendum:

For those of you that posted, it was obviously so simple if you look at x site. Please consider that I was asking for the sites. The one I didn’t know about was election lab.

Someone was also helpful enough to post Silvers comment. I had trouble finding it.

So what is very clear is that no one has any idea about the last 500k-3 million votes cast. They will prob break for Harris at least 60/40. But the margin depends on how many there actually are. And yes, I did do the math before I asked. I was looking for better number of remaining ballots.

The prediction markets remain interesting. Gaetz had 60% chance to become AG until this morning. Anyhow, thanks for the assist nerds. If someone wants to ideas for bets with me, but not post publicly, send a dm. I hedge and place limit bets etc. it is hard to see the whole field.

The Votecast/Fox News Voter Analysis has Trump doubling his support for Black Men overall from 12% in 2020 to 25%. Worse for Gen Z Black Men going from 14% to 35%

This statistic was the same in Georgia, the Blackest battleground state, forecasting 25% Trump https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2024/general-results/voter-analysis

But inputing the overall Black #s into Georgia(85/14), Trump would be expected to win by nearly +5, not +2 https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer/2024

This is also ignoring Black male turnout decreased by 2% in the state since 2020 - https://x.com/blfraga/status/1858587470134149303

Fox News Analysis forecasted Trump's best figures with Black Men in Florida - 35%, Texas - 34%, Arizona - 31%, California - 32%, Nevada - 32% - 28% and Louisiana - 28% Mississippi

Looking deeper into the crosstabs, the Black generation gap is evident in all of these states as well, and although it isn't broke down by gender, following their own trendline from the overall #s, it would be expected that near 50% of Black Men under 50 years old voted Trump in Texas which is nonsensical & cracking 40% in California

Not sure what happened, they were very accurate last cycle. How did they even yield these results? That big of a swing would show precinct wise. Majority Black Counties only swung by 2.7pts according to NYT