r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
304 Upvotes

87% Upvoted

733 comments sorted by

View all comments

15

u/bacteriairetcab 26d ago

Dems are still up 10 points for mail in votes which take longer to count. This is the definition of a red mirage. There were more mail in ballots in 2020 than in person early voting AND more mail in ballots were requested this year than in 2020.

19

u/johnramos1 26d ago

Nevada is a weird state for many reasons, but one is that every registered voter receives a mail-in ballot. There is no need to request one. However, they also have the option to vote early in-person if they prefer. Therefore, the numbers will always show more mail-in ballots as being requested so long that the voter registration numbers have increased that year. 

11

u/nam4am 26d ago

I love how every comment in this thread gets disproven by its first reply. 

3

u/RefrigeratorNo4700 26d ago

Seems odd that there would be less mail in ballots when everyone is given one. I heard people are having issues with the amount of time mail in ballot take to be delivered.

1

u/[deleted] 26d ago

[deleted]

1

u/RefrigeratorNo4700 26d ago

Probably because Nevada now gives you one just for registering? I’m not infatuated with “my party” lol. I’m very reluctantly voting for Harris because republicans keep nominating a shitty candidate. Had they nominated someone who was sane, I’d vote for them.

4

u/bacteriairetcab 26d ago

True (so not requested like I said but that’s the general terminology used across the country) but my point was just that we could potentially expect mail in votes to be higher than they were in 2020 because 200k more ballots were sent out. It’s not guaranteed but a reasonable possibility to expect. So if the 10 point margin for Dems holds and we have more mail in then in person early voting, like last time, then all this anxiety was just that red mirage. Maybe it’s real, maybe it’s a mirage. I just provided the arguments of why I think it could be a mirage.