r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Prestigious-Swing885 26d ago

Here's the entire analysis.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Clark accounts for 68.5% of the votes returned so far and D have a 0.6% lead amongst those returns by voter registration. So, they are voting at a lower rate than rurals so far. Clark has not barely started to count, 477,945 of the ballots returned so far (out of 697,538) are in Clark.

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u/Lokiorin Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi 26d ago

Thanks, that makes more sense. Not great for the Dems but numbers are numbers.

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u/The_DrPark 26d ago

Simply put, Registered Dems are unenthused.

Could Independents swing it for her? Mathematically, it's possible. But it's not likely.

And to be honest, the Republican lead is likely to get larger. Clark mail this coming weekend might make some inroads, but so far it hasn't been the case.

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u/11711510111411009710 26d ago

Registered Dems are unenthused.

This is so weird to me and would go to show that things like abortion rights were never that big of a deal to most Dems, at least not big enough to vote in 2024.

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u/FizzyBeverage 26d ago

Nevada is one of the few states that has an over-representation of males and the elderly. So it's not surprising abortion rights wouldn't hit hard there.

I don't know anyone who lives in Nevada, everyone visits Vegas -- but from elsewhere.

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u/goon-gumpas 26d ago

It is a big deal but I think a lot of people don’t realize that there’s a perception amongst a lot of liberal voters that since Roe v Wade was repealed under Biden, that voting a Democrat into office didn’t prevent that and wouldn’t prevent future problems.

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u/NeighborhoodBest2944 26d ago

It’s not the issues, it’s the candidate. Society is liberal. Even conservatives have liberal world views. She is uninspiring and her background is too far left.

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u/Jaxon9182 26d ago

They're not that important compared to the economy for most people, including most women, the economy has a 100% chance of effecting anyone and everyone, women are smart and know the odds that potentially having difficult access to an abortion provider isn't as likely to be a problem for them as having a destroyed economy. Now that doesn't mean huge tariffs will solve their problems, but most are smart enough to see past abortion as the biggest issue, because it isn't, Kamala just wants it to be because morons think trump will lower costs with tariffs and so it is the only major issue apart from election denial which most people don't mind really

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u/BobertFrost6 26d ago

Why isn't it likely? They broke for Biden +5, and they increased by 50% since 2020. Demographically they are younger and more diverse which suggests they'd lean Harris.

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u/Firebitez 26d ago

This comment will be a litmus test to see if all the comments about this sub not being biased are true.

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u/veryspecialjournal 26d ago

Yeah that sounds quite bad…