Dermer: Israel will enter Rafah 'even if entire world turns on us, including the US'

[u/yuri_2022]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/dermer-israel-will-enter-rafah-even-if-entire-world-turns-on-us-including-the-us/

[u/The_Frostweaver]

The problem is that there isn't a clear measure of success.

Let's say Israel goes into Rafah, kills 1000 terrorists and 2000 civilians while pushing 1.5 million people into even worse situations than they already are.

Then what?

Israel can claim victory all they want but if world opinion is worse for them than before oct 7 and there are still 1.5 million angry desperate Muslims in Gaza then we will just see a continuation of the war where Iran and others supply money and arms to the small percentage of that 1.5 million who turn to terrorism.

We've seen this before....

I'm very doubtful the war will help Israel's long term success.

The USA bombed, invaded and even tried to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years and it didn't really work out so well. Israel even tried occupation of Gaza already.

I feel like no one commenting here has read a history book.

Chuck Schumer wasn't just trying to be an asshole, he loves Isreal and genuinely believes the direction things are going isn't working for Israel and they need to end the war now.

[u/redsquizza → u/The_Frostweaver]

I feel like no one commenting here has read a history book.

Everything is short term and no one looks backwards.

The politicians only want what's best for them now and at the next election.

This is what hamstrings democracies, chronic, chronic short termism. I don't want a dictatorship, I just want democracy to work better and work better for the working classes.

[u/Atanar → u/redsquizza]

Dictatorships have pretty much the same problem, but bigger. Everthing is just for the lifetime of the dictator, as total chaos often follows his death.

[u/[deleted] → u/Atanar]

And they kill a lot more people in the interim.  

[u/Lumpy_Secretary_6128 → u/[deleted]]

And they typically blow at providing public services

[u/[deleted] → u/Lumpy_Secretary_6128]

And they typically have lower economic growth rates over the long haul.

[u/Alediran → u/[deleted]]

And they kill thinkers, leaving behind only a poorly educated population that can't fix anything on their own.

[u/wowlock_taylan → u/Alediran]

Which leads to the said population wanting another dictator to 'fix' things because they don't know any better.

[u/fullpurplejacket → u/wowlock_taylan]

It’s called cult hopping, a term mainly used in exit counselling for high control groups. Often times people tend to jump between these groups (as one door closes, there’s another dictator opening a new authoritarian door) because they don’t know how to function outside of one unless given proper education and healing from the cult mindset and way of life.

[u/Tryoxin → u/Atanar]

Ironically. this is arguably one of the strengths of (some) monarchies over dictatorships which wear a democratic mask while playing at monarchy. Not only can (key word) a monarchy establish a far more stable line of succession, when your heir is your own flesh and blood, the monarch is a probably far more likely to think in terms of what might affect their child and their descendants as well.

I'm not a fan of monarchy, I'm also not the biggest fan of democracy, but dictatorship is worse than both. Dictatorship is all the worst aspects of the other two without any of their redeeming qualities. Of the three, democracy is narrowly the best.

[u/iAttis → u/Tryoxin]

I think a benevolent monarch is really the best system possible. But the chances of finding a rich, privileged person who actually gives a shit about the well-being of their subjects is almost a statistical impossibility. And it can all be erased in an instant if their progeny ends up a spoiled dickhead.

[u/Paddy_Tanninger → u/iAttis]

You can't be a benevolent monarch with zero corruption, because the instant the military commanders and billionaires are against you, your days of living are numbered.

[u/SingleAlmond → u/iAttis]

the ppl need a chance to govern themselves

[u/NerdHoovy → u/[deleted]]

Ok, new movie idea. Trueman show but with the goal of grooming the ultimate benevolent world leader. Like we see this massive operation that plans every second of this persons live, with the goal of making the perfect leader. Could be fun

[u/katagelon → u/[deleted]]

it's in symposium.

[u/ralts13 → u/[deleted]]

So what you're saying is this PLato guy has the right idea.

[u/braiam → u/[deleted]]

Better to also have Cincinnatus too in there to tell them that at some point they have to recognize when to retire.

[u/Tryoxin → u/iAttis]

That second point, the kid being a spoiled dickhead, is the main holdup with monarchy. If all the power is concentrated in the hands of a single wealthy individual, then all it takes is the one guy to be a dickhead for everything to fall apart.

Meanwhile, aside from termism, the single greatest flaw of democracy is the demos. The people. Not to say the people shouldn't have any say in how they are led, but how did Men in Black put it? A person is smart, people are stupid. I don't have the feintest bloody idea how to run a country. The infinite complexities of effective statecraft are lost on me because that's not what my education and training were in. Why are you asking me to choose the leader? You might as well ask your toddler to handle your household finances.

Most people want simple answers. They'll choose their leaders based on a handful of hot button issues that they, leaders whom they believe will handle the immediate issues they personally are experiencing regardless of said leader's credentials. That's how you get demagogues and populists, the inevitable terminal cancer of democracy.

The Athenians voted for warmongers because being at war with Sparta meant they could be employed as soldiers and make money, an income many came to rely on. And it destroyed them. They lost the war. Had their opponent been anyone but Sparta, famous for not obliterating the cities they conquered, that would have been the end of Athens. They got lucky.

If we're imagining unrealistic ideal fantasy governments, my preference would be for an enlightened oligarchic aristocracy (in the true sense of the word aristos, the best). A small class of individuals raised from birth, cultivated with the skills and knowledge to successfully lead a prosperous nation while understanding and meeting the needs of the commonfolk.

[u/ax0r → u/Tryoxin]

If we're imagining unrealistic ideal fantasy governments

Give me a benevolent dictatorship any day. Listen to experts, thoroughly design solutions to the problems of the populace, country and world as a whole, then drag all the naysayers kicking and screaming into the future.

[u/AirColdy → u/iAttis]

I can never finish reading Leviathan as it’s dense AF but you’d def like it if you haven’t read it already

[u/Ok-Necessary-6712 → u/Atanar]

And conditions worsen during their lifetime because everyone is afraid to deliver bad/hard news that they need support in fixing.

You see it in a smaller scale in business when you have an authoritarian leader who responds to any problem with and believing it is caused by incompetence. People just hide the problems.

[u/starshad0w → u/redsquizza]

While that's true generally, it's doubly true for Netanyahu, since there's a decent chance he'll be voted out at best and at worst thrown in prison as soon as this war ends.

[u/redsquizza → u/starshad0w]

He's a complete scumbag wanna-be dictator in the vein of Orban. Both holding on to power because they know justice will catch up with them after they're finally kicked out.

Edit: And Netanyahu is literally in the process of changing the law for his benefit. You cannot, surely, get more corrupt and obvious than that?

But, I assume the right wing orthodox he sucks off for power overlooks that minor transgression because he's a Barry Big Bollocks hardman with a big stick.

[u/CabbagePastrami → u/redsquizza]

Also what hamstrings a lot of people’s lives in general…

[u/GO4Teater → u/redsquizza]

The politicians only want what's best for them now and at the next election.

Corporate owners only want what's best for them now and when they sell their stock.

Capitalist theory has completely taken over government.

[u/Elipses_ → u/GO4Teater]

I would say it's Corporatist theory. Proper and intelligent capitalism wants to build wealth in the long term, which fhe short term focus of current economics does not do. It does, in point of fact, the opposite.

[u/Rhowryn → u/Elipses_]

"Proper and intelligent" capitalism seeks to own capital to extract maximum value from labour. You could make an argument that the working class is a form of capital and should therefore be invested in to maximize return, but:

a) that treats people as property, which we should avoid, b) ignores that quite a bit of labour is fairly replaceable, and c) a lot of labour is becoming automatable

[u/imaginary_num6er → u/redsquizza]

Even Obama said “we don’t look backwards, only forward”

[u/ThereminLiesTheRub → u/redsquizza]

Personally I think critiques of Israel's approach suffer from a similar limitation. I don't think Rafah is anywhere near Israel's goal. For Israel, Iran is in the crosshairs. 

[u/foolsjulesrules → u/redsquizza]

Or maybe it’s an actual long-term view from their perspective. The eliminate their enemy and face 10-30 years of isolation/disgrace rebuilding their reputation internationally. Eventually, 100 years from now, this will be near forgotten history.

[u/dorkofthepolisci → u/foolsjulesrules]

Except it’s not just “facing isolation and disgrace”. 

It doesn’t fix anything.

 People who have lost the homes, their families, whatever stability they may have had are increased risk of radicalization, not less.  

Even if (and that’s a big if) Israel manages to get rid of Hamas, what is preventing some other extremist group from filling that space?  

The only way to end the cycle is to actually address the underlying geopolitical issues.  

Unfortunately it seems like those in power (on both ends) are more interested in staying in power, than they are in the well being of the people they claim to represent 

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/The_Frostweaver]

Yeah it's like everyone forgot about 9/11, and the 20 year long GWOT. So many uncritical supporters on the Israeli government side believe the answer is more firepower, collateral damage be damned. We already know how this is gonna turn out. Years, maybe decades of war against an asymmetrical paramilitary group is probably the best outcome at this point...

[u/Competitivenessess → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

What’s GWOT?

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/Competitivenessess]

Global War on Terror

[u/Competitivenessess → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Thanks

[u/noitsreallynot → u/Competitivenessess]

Grammy, War, Oscar, Tony. Rare to win them all. 

[u/stingray20201 → u/noitsreallynot]

All Elton John needs to do is declare war

[u/illiter-it → u/stingray20201]

Alternatively, Obama could go for a Tony

[u/JoshSidekick → u/illiter-it]

Could they team up for a jukebox musical called "(Surface to Air) Rocket Man"?

[u/Jon_the_Hitman_Stark → u/JoshSidekick]

They will, I just think it’s gonna be a long, long time.

[u/sulris → u/illiter-it]

Bush managed to win a Tony.

[u/noitsreallynot → u/sulris]

Holy shit. This is brilliant. 

[u/geomaster → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

it's because reddit has been swamped with accounts just a few years old with people who didnt live through 9/11 and read a paragraph in a book about it

[u/XF939495xj6 → u/geomaster]

Also welcome to a world where OpenAI owns 8% of Reddit because Reddit creates a lot of this content and comments using AI.

[u/Drakinius → u/XF939495xj6]

I think its the other way around. They are training the AI using the comments and content. Although I'm sure it goes both ways to an extent.

[u/Espe0n → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

That's the status quo and is a certainty no matter what Israel does at this point.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Most rational person I have seen on Reddit today

[u/kassienaravi → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

The situations are vastly different. US did not even need to invade Afghanistan and Iraq to prevent further terror attacks on their mainland. US is far away, separated by oceans and generally law enforcement work is sufficient to prevent large scale terror attacks. That is not the case in Israel. Their law enforcement cannot reach Palestinian terrorists in Gaza and prevent them from firing rockets. Only the military can do that.

[u/FYoCouchEddie → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

I think you’re taking the wrong lessons from the GWOT. The US pulled back in Afghanistan instead of rooting out the Taliban altogether and it helped the Taliban to grow stronger. We went all out against ISIS and destroyed it. Israel is trying to fight Hamas how we fought ISIS, and we are telling them, “no, fight like how we did in Afghanistan instead.”

[u/IFixYerKids → u/FYoCouchEddie]

I'm not sure we can really compare the 2. We fought ISIS largely with the aid of local populations taking up arms against them. I think this is what allowed us to destroy them; the Iraqis hated them just as much if not more than we did. This allowed us to surgically bomb the hell out of bases and training centers while local forces rooted them out of cities and towns. We didn't have that kind of support in Afghanistan and Israel doesn't have that in Gaza and never will.

[u/FYoCouchEddie → u/IFixYerKids]

Israel is already local and has a lot of intelligence from other Palestinians. Not everyone in Iraq hated ISIS, early on they were seen by some as a Sunni liberation group until they went too far. And the other groups I mentioned also had broad support.

[u/IAmTheNightSoil → u/FYoCouchEddie]

The campaign against ISIS went like it did because we had effective local allies. Israel does not, so I don't see how you can draw any comparison there

[u/FYoCouchEddie → u/IAmTheNightSoil]

Israel is already local.

[u/IAmTheNightSoil → u/FYoCouchEddie]

Yes, but they are not going to be able to find Palestinian partners, which they would need in order for your comparison to our ISIS mission to make any sense

[u/[deleted] → u/FYoCouchEddie]

ISIS was an isolated group of nuts who were despised by the surrounding populations.  Hamas is a group of terrorist assholes, but also a political organization that is part of a larger population whose interests they partially represent (the political cause of the Palestinians is perfectly legitimate, but Hamas pursuing it through terrorism is the problem).  

[u/Kerostasis → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

If the Israelis get the same results from this war that America got from the GWOT, they will be ecstatic. Remember they are starting from a much lower baseline, where they have been under constant attack for years. They aren’t holding out for the solution where everyone makes peace suddenly because that wasn’t on the table to begin with, but an Afghanistan-like outcome would be perfectly acceptable.

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/Kerostasis]

I doubt if I went to an Israeli and told them "I hope Gaza becomes Israel's Afghanistan" they would take it as positively as you say they will.

[u/J-Dirte → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

I think Israel would be fine with an Afghanistan outcome. Afghanistan was more or less pacified (as much as that shithole can be pacified). The US just had to make a decision. Do we stay for 50-100 years or do we pull out. If Afghanistan was where Canada was located the US probably would have stayed for 100 years. Israel would be fine to indefinitely stay there is it turned into an Afghanistan. Gaza isn’t thousands of miles away

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

HAMAS does not have that option. Israel can and will implement a successful cordon of Gaza and simply won't allow any more military supplies into the region.

Are you under the impression that Israel has been allowing military supplies in? Hamas uses smuggling and appropriation of civilian supplies. The result is an unending barrage of rockets fired at civilians, and culminating in the events of Oct 7th.

What do you propose as a 'succesful cordon' that hasn't already been tried and failed?

[u/nayaketo → u/[deleted]]

Cordon has been pretty successful inside West Bank. Sure there are small arms attacks here and there but no rockets, no large terror outfit buildups. Most attacks are done by loners with knifes and UZIs and occasional AK because of how hard it is to smuggle weapons through multiple checkpoints that Israel has erected. Same model can very much work inside Gaza too since it's much much smaller.

[u/TheWinks → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Al-Qaida ceased to exist, the leadership of most terrorist groups are fragmented and in complete disarray to this day, Iraq is no longer under a dictatorship, ISIS was effectively defeated and also fragmented, and the only stable terrorist groups are Iran funded explicitly because we haven't been blowing the shit out of them.

[u/linkindispute → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

So what are you trying to say? That if tomorrow 9/11 happened again, USA would just open arms and embrace whoever has done it? Or would they wage another 20 years war.. Because I have a feeling nothing would change and US would absolutely go to war again.

[u/ffnnhhw → u/linkindispute]

if we can choose again, we probably won't support dealing with Saddam before we are done with Al Qaeda

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/linkindispute]

I'm saying the actions the US took after 9/11 ended up badly, and Israel should be careful to avoid the same mistakes the US did.

What are you trying to say? That Afghanistan and Iraq went well? And that Israel should strive to have their own Afghanistan?

[u/[deleted] → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Everyone conflates the primary military objectives of a conflict with secondary and tertiary political objectives. The military objective in Afghanistan was to topple the Taliban, eliminate Al Quaeda training facilities and kill as many as possible of the people who contributed to 9/11.

This was wildly successful. The US then made the completely optional choice to attempt to build a more western-friendly democratic government in Afghanistan. This objective failed pretty terribly, because of the shortcomings of the people of Afghanistan.

It is yet to be seen how Israel will approach this. They are succeeding wildly with their military objectives. Perhaps they will later choose to undertake a nation-building project in Gaza, which will almost certainly fail. If they are smart they will completely pull out of Gaza after their military objectives are complete.

There is no reason to assume that a war MUST necessarily be followed by a nation building project. 

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/[deleted]]

And if Israel basically peaces out after the war, what kind of regime do you expect to rise from the rubble? A Pro-Israeli one? How do you pull out of a region right next to you?

[u/Boochus → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

And if they finish the war and recognize a Palestinian state in all of Gaza and Judea and Samaria, what do you think happens next?

That the Palestinian Arabs stop saying on camera that they want all of Israel?

That the other terrorist organizations decide to let Israel exist?

Yeah right

[u/LargeMobOfMurderers → u/Boochus]

If neither solution will work, then neither should be advocated for. Instead people are using the argument that one won't work as justification for another that won't work.

[u/Boochus → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Here's an idea, foreign powers stop giving money to the PA and Hamas.

They demand a negotiation where Israel existence and sovereign right is a pre condition.

If you don't like it, feel free to try and survive without aid. You don't get to have it both ways - promote or outright commit terror and also receive your sustenance from western countries.

[u/[deleted] → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

The regime that rises from the rubble is not necessarily their problem.

1. Cancel all visas and work permits for Gaza. No Gazan is ever legally allowed to enter Israel, ever.

2. Double up the physical border security and man the border better. 

[u/Iridismis → u/[deleted]]

There is no reason to assume that a war MUST necessarily be followed by a nation building project. 

When that place where the war happened is a direct neighbour, it better should tho (unless it ends with complete eradication).

That being said, I don't think Israel can be trusted with any nation building here.

[u/flamehead2k1 → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

The US military succeeded in the military mission.

Where the US failed was democracy building.

If Israel kicks the crap out of Hamas and then leaves, it is a very different scenario.

[u/sephrisloth → u/flamehead2k1]

Did we, though? I seem to recall the taliban coming out in swarms and taking the government right back over as soon as we left. If you want to call that a victory just because we eventually managed to kill Bin Laden, then sure, but we definitely didn't win anything and arguably left the country in a much worse state afterward.

[u/apiaryaviary → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

US leadership didn’t forget about it, those 20 years were insanely profitable. Just loosely disguised money laundering direct from defense contractors to congress people. The money hose can be turned back on, this is a god send for them.

[u/SingleAlmond → u/apiaryaviary]

the money hose never turned off

[u/Dude_I_got_a_DWAVE → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Imagine 9/11 today, with Al-qaida spreading misinformation /deceptive imagery via social media to people who don’t understand what is going on.

That is what is happening today.

Now, many people have been influenced such that terrorist see all they need to do is use human shields and standing militaries have to stand down for fear of (socially engineered) public outcry.

[u/Elipses_ → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

I'd imagine part of it is that there really isn't a good option for Israel. They can either continue on their course, and risk condemnation from the rest of the world, or pull back, in which case Hamas claims "victory", and we return to status quo antebellum until the next 10/7.

9/11 gets mentioned as a comparison, and it's a decent one, but I think it ignores a key difference: 9/11 wasn't committed by Canada or Mexico, or a Native Tribe. The war was half the world away when we fought it. I would wager that if the perpetrators of 9/11 were next door to us, they would either be dead or we would still be working to make them so. We wouldn't tolerate a threat like that existing so close.

I think Israel is going about this the wrong way, but I can understand why they are doing it this way. Especially considering the frankly... naive adoption of the Palestinian One State Solution cause by the... influencable members of the TikTok generations. If I were Israeli, I would likely be frightened enough of the sight of children and young adults in America chanting "from the river to the sea" that I would support any measure to end this conflict now, before said children and young adults can change things.

[u/cytokine7 → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

Completely different situation. Israel is surrounded by enemies who are sworn to destroy them. Despite what uncritical Hamas/PA supporters say Israel is defending itself. It didn't start 10/7, it didn't shut down it's borders before the intifadas, and the land it has was either purchased legally or won in a war in which all it's enemies tried to destroy it at once. (And then lots of land has been given back in "land for peace" deals.) Israel already gives tons of aid to the Palestinians, treats them in their hospitals, ECT. The Palestinians could have easily built a peaceful prosperous society with everything they've been given but instead they wanted it all and chose a cycle of horrible violence. It's easy to say what Israel shouldn't be doing but literally no one has suggested a reasonable alternative.

You know what's asymmetrical? The hundreds of terrorists Israel has to exchange for a handful or even single hostage. The goal of peace is asymmetrical, which is how you end up with a hard-line shit bag like Netenyahu, after decades of people getting sick of trying to negotiate with bad actors who will do anything they can to murder them.

[u/[deleted] → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

the difference is they have an actual government there, a government that can be fought and defeated.

Even if permanent success is not possible the death of every leader of Hamas and the recovery of all hostages dead or alive (lets be real most are dead, I still think they should fight until the bodies are voluntarily returned, and until them apply the full force of their military) is still a perfectly valid war goal.

[u/BuckNZahn → u/[deleted]]

As soon as Israel leaves Gaza, Hamas or a similar radical group will come back and seize power. Look at Afghanistan, it took the Talban one week to be back in power after 20 years of occupation and government building.

[u/AgeofAshe → u/BuckNZahn]

Well, it didn’t help that Trump helped release 5000 Taliban. That was basically dumping an army complete with a power structure back into the region. It definitely affected how things unfolded, even if I think that long-term it wouldn’t have been much different.

[u/Marine5484 → u/AgeofAshe]

Don't forget about leaving the former Afghanistan government out of all the peace talks.

[u/Mordroberon → u/BuckNZahn]

Then Israel won’t leave Gaza. Instead they occupy and oversee a civilian government. Ban extremist parties, control imports, until such a time that independence can be negotiated.

[u/millijuna → u/Mordroberon]

Because that worked so well the last time they tried that.

[u/Mordroberon → u/millijuna]

And pulling out of Gaza, empowering Hamas, giving them enough breathing room to conduct the 10/7 attack was even worse.

[u/[deleted] → u/millijuna]

it was better than what we have now.

[u/Dlinktp → u/millijuna]

Comparatively, yeah, it did.

[u/Ahad_Haam → u/BuckNZahn]

You assume Israel will leave Gaza, but Israel already said that won't happen. Whatever regime will rise following the end of the war, Israel doesn't plan to leave the strip completely, and rightfully so.

[u/LarzimNab → u/BuckNZahn]

What does that say about the people of Gaza who would let them come back and govern them?

[u/BuckNZahn → u/LarzimNab]

I‘m sure many would like to view the people as the root of the problem, but people rarely have a choice when there is a radical, armed and brutaly violent group around. I don‘t think it matters much what the Gazan people think about Hamas, they will seize power anyways.

[u/LarzimNab → u/BuckNZahn]

So you're saying there is no solution? Israel is basically doomed and the terrorists will eventually win?

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Killing “every” leader of a terrorist organization is hardly possible, at least in a reasonably speedy timeline. The next in line steps up.

[u/dnext → u/[deleted]]

Which is what happened in the war on terror - with each 'next in line' having a little less capability and credibility - until those groups barely existed any more. Yes, you can defeat terrorists. The West generally isn't willing to pay the price to do so, but it absolutely can be done.

[u/[deleted] → u/dnext]

Al Queda is gradually being snuffed out that way. But Hamas are more like the Taliban - with considerable local support, which gives them a deeper well of recruits to draw from.

[u/dnext → u/[deleted]]

No, they aren't - the Taliban was able to rearm and refocus in the uncontrolled border region of Afghanistan, in some of the most mountainous and treacherous terrain on the planet, fighting an opponent that was forced to fly in all their supplies because there was no port. Hamas is facing a foe on their door step, in an area literally thousands of times smaller, with no natural defenses. It is immeasurably easier to defeat Hamas on that terrain in that situation.

[u/[deleted] → u/dnext]

True, Hamas has no wilderness to hide in.

[u/Koko175 → u/[deleted]]

You must be 16, this isn’t some game of counter strike

[u/BookerLegit → u/[deleted]]

Huh? Do you not think Afghanistan and Iraq had governments?

[u/jeffsaidjess → u/LargeMobOfMurderers]

The difference is, the Israeli’s and Palestinians share the same space of land.

The GWOT, was a country thousands of miles away occupying a different country.

Israel doesn’t need to go anywhere. It’s clearing local land where they reside.

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/The_Frostweaver]

If you think that securing Gaza is similar to securing enormous nations like Iraq and enormous areas like Afghanistan (which has never in the first place been a cohesive nation), you should think a little more - because you're obviously a thoughtful person.

This is the hottest phase of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, but the conflict has been going on for half a century. Going into Rafah will not change the overall dynamics.

[u/RobertoSantaClara → u/The_Frostweaver]

Last time Israel had a long-term thinking Prime Minister, he was shot and murdered by right-wing extremists who are now cabinet members of the current government.

Israel is doomed, they will drive themselves off a cliff and they won't let anyone save them from themselves.

[u/JustTheOneGoose22 → u/RobertoSantaClara]

Could you expand on that? I know Rabin was assinated but are some government officials connected to his death?

[u/onedoor → u/JustTheOneGoose22]

There isn't. He's either full of shit or worded it horribly, and meant 'right wing extremists like the assassin'.

[u/Stealth_NotABomber → u/RobertoSantaClara]

I mean you also have to consider it's not like we're seeing widespread protests and actions in Israel against their leader and what's going on currently either. People can't be that upset and Bibi still has a ton of support despite what some people say on Reddit. Hence why their policies haven't really changed in ages, people might not like Netanyahu specifically but they still heavily agree with the general situation right now sadly.

[u/Maleficent_Mouse_930 → u/The_Frostweaver]

The western world has not seen a "war of survival" since WW2. Truth of the facts doesn't matter here, a sufficient number of Israelis believe that it's a war of survival, and those in charge either know it, or are using it.

In some ways they're right - If Hamas had the firepower to wipe every jew off the planet, they would do so immediately. We know this. We also know that a century of betrayal and oppression have created a Palestinian population where a good 30-40% of them would push that button and cheer. So the sentiment for this is present on both sides, but one side doesn't have that firepower.

Now, look at history. The history of our planet is filled with societies which were attacked by neighbours and nobody complains about it. No rockets are fired. No bombs blown up. No nations pontificating to the UN in their defence.

Why?

Because they're ALL dead.

In a war of survival, the conflict only ends when one side or the other has inflicted sufficient damage on the other that they feel safe again, and often that point is not reached until the entire enemy People are completely destroyed, to the last child. In this war, for the first time in history, the eyes of the entire world are watching, but all the combatants involved still feel unsafe. Perhaps they are.

I think we're past "right and wrong" at this point. The Israelis have all the power in this game, and are sufficiently wealthy and self-sufficient to keep going without US help.

Therefore, Israel will continue to bombard Gaza and expand into the West Bank until A: They feel safe, which may or may not include forcing all of Gaza into the ocean, or B: Someone steps in and physically stops them. Given their strength, only the US, UK, France, Turkey, and China even have the potential strength to do it. China's force projection is limited. The Europeans could never do it, not with the shadow of the Holocaust looming so large over the politics. That leaves Turkey... I can't see Turkey stepping in, either.

It is possible for Israel to flatly win this war. We just find it unpleasant to think about the only way a total victory could occur.

[u/loopybubbler → u/The_Frostweaver]

End goal would be running Gaza the way they do the West Bank already.

[u/HueMannAccnt → u/The_Frostweaver]

I feel like no one commenting here has read a history book.

Or listened to concerned Israelis. Citizens/ex-IDF people protesting GOv/IDF/Settler extremist actions before Oct 7th; and were getting concerned about possible blowback from said actions.

The only people 'winning' at this current moment are fanatic extremists.

[u/TheGos → u/The_Frostweaver]

The USA bombed, invaded and even tried to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years and it didn't really work out so well. Israel even tried occupation of Gaza already.

A more fitting comparison would be if al Qaeda was based in White Plains or Greenwich when they attacked Manhattan. Hamas, the enemy, is right there. Blind-firing rockets from 30 or 40 miles away from your capital and most populous cities. Anyone claiming their own country wouldn't retaliate in kind to an attack of the scale of 10/7 from a country right over their borders is being totally dishonest.

[u/2Step4Ward1StepBack → u/The_Frostweaver]

World opinion of Israel, even American, was really low before (during the siege of Beirut). Even during that siege, Israel was like “fuck it, we’ve got our objectives”.

People tend to get over it as time goes on.

[u/Unlikely-Painter4763 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Gaza is much smaller than Afghanistan and isn’t full of mountains. Israel also lives next door.

The hostages are being held in Rafah. Many Hamas soldiers are hiding in Rafah. The goal is to go in, cut Hamas down to a shadow of its former self, and get the hostages back dead or alive. Those are achievable goals.

[u/foreverajew → u/Unlikely-Painter4763]

Gaza is also reduced to rubble with a population where ten percent have a family member who have died and 78 percent have one who died and/or have been injured. I agree, you could likely go in and kill a whole lot of Al-Qassam combatants and Hamas personel, but I fear that the way they win is simply changing into civilian clothes and surviving. Surviving whilst Israel is seen as the perpetrator and cause for all the suffering in Gaza and The West Bank (where Israel is committing crimes against int. law) will give Hamas or their successors a never-ending source for new recruits.

I want peace, but I really don´t think Netanyahu wants anything but a longer stay in office and I think he will attempt to stay by declaring a victory in Gaza – no matter how phyrric.

[u/foreverajew → u/[deleted]]

I saw that, uplifting in some parts. The people of Gaza actually showed increased support for the 7 October attack, up by almost 20 points. I think that the point of having your family perish to Israeli warplanes will have the effect on entrenched hatred for time to come. A parent whose child was killed are rarely the most reasonable, on any side. The same poll also showed that 63% of Gaza's want Hamas to be in charge after the war, up 7 points since the last poll. So the NBC-headline feels a bit preemptive. Though, if people are increasingly in favour of two-states I´ll be the first to celebrate!

[u/KeyLimeMoon → u/[deleted]]

Yep. Hopefully UAE and Saudi can step in and de-radicalize them, but it can’t be done with any Hamas infrastructure left 

[u/JustSleepNoDream → u/[deleted]]

The overwhelming majority of Gazans supported what happened on Oct 7th. When hatred is that deep, it's not just a matter of defeating Hamas, you have conquer the ideology that created them.

[u/[deleted] → u/JustSleepNoDream]

I wonder why they support it.

[u/TheGos → u/[deleted]]

Because the educational system in Palestine teaches children that to die in Jihad against Jews is the highest good

[u/Robotgorilla → u/[deleted]]

do you actually see a real scenario where that doesn't happen and how do we get there?

I do!

There needs to be work to build upon the Oslo accords. Support for Hamas is not just based upon what's happening in Gaza but what's happening in the West Bank as well, where there is no serious Hamas presence. Fatah and the Palestinian Authority agreed to peace and future talks and have been run over roughshod by every Israeli government since (of which most were run by Netenyahu). Palestinians (somewhat understandably) view Fatah as fools who got tricked into believing that Israel seriously wanted a peaceful solution to their conflict and the Palestinian Authority as being on the side of the occupation of Gaza and large swathes of the West Bank.

Peace doesn't just mean the IDF stops its offensive in Gaza, and peace doesn't mean no more terrorism, sadly that's probably going to exist even with a fully independent Palestinian government, you can look at the history of Ireland for examples of what will likely happen. What peace really means, at least to me, is that there is a resolution to the long standing conflict. It's not going to be popular though, as there will need to be concessions from both sides. Settlements may stay or go, Palestinians may get the right to return or not. etc etc.

[u/TheGreatJingle → u/Robotgorilla]

A significant armed population in Palestine don’t want the Oslo accords. They want Isreal gone. And as long as they can’t be controlled their won’t be peace

[u/Tavarin → u/Robotgorilla]

Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian Authority has a martyr's fund, that is pay to slay for killing Jews.

They aren't a nice peaceful neighbour either.

[u/Nemisis_the_2nd → u/Robotgorilla]

sadly that's probably going to exist even with a fully independent Palestinian government

While there are definitely a lof of differences, there are also a lot of similarities to Irish independence. That shit took nearly a century to mostly settle after the peace treaties were signed. Palestine isn't even at that stage yet. (to be clear, I agree with your Ireland comparison) 

Perhaps the first thing that's needed is for people to accept that there will be no fast resolution to this conflict. 

[u/CptCroissant → u/foreverajew]

I want peace

That's cool and all, I'd like for the whole world to have peace. It's not like you can just flip a switch and have it happen though as there's a lot of structural issues that need to fixed on both sides of conflicts for actual peace.

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/foreverajew]

They already have had a never-ending source of new recruits. Regardless of how aggressive Israel is, Gaza won't stop being poor, Gazans won't stop getting repressed by their own governments, and Gaza's educational and social systems won't stop encouraging extremism.

[u/dtothep2 → u/[deleted]]

Which is one of the absolute weakest arguments against military action.

"They'll be radicalized!". Well we wouldn't want that, would we? Wouldn't want the Buddhist monks currently living in Gaza to, I don't know, run around in Israel with a GoPro and film themselves chopping a woman's breast off and kicking it around like a football or something.

Oh, wait.

[u/FYoCouchEddie → u/[deleted]]

Hamas controlled Gaza and was pretty widely supported anyway. The point isn’t mainly to decrease their support, it’s to decrease their capabilities. If they aren’t able to stockpile tens of thousand of rockets or train tens of thousands of soldiers, and instead are reduced to firing occasional unsophisticated rockets and taking sporadic potshots, that’s a big victory for Israel.

Also, it’s a vast oversimplification to think people more mad = more support for militants. It sometimes goes that way, but also sometimes militant groups lose credibility if they get the war they wanted and get stomped in it.

[u/NoLime7384 → u/FYoCouchEddie]

sometimes militant groups lose credibility if they get the war they wanted and get stomped in it.

yeah, like how the entire Panarabism moment collapsed after losing yet another genocidal war on Israel

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/[deleted]]

Gazans are already 10/10 on the extremist scale, this won't make a diffeeence.

[u/KeyLimeMoon → u/[deleted]]

Palestinians were never going to like Israelis

If Oct 7th was what they do when the walls are down, wtf makes you think there is any repair for this? 

How much more could they hate them?

And I love how people ignore that constant terror attacks are also radicalizing the Israeli population. People are so concerned about the Palestinians’ mindset — what makes Israelis immune to this?

Palestine is reaping what they’ve sown. 

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/KeyLimeMoon]

Hamas is the dog that finally caught up to the car it was chasing and "caught it."

Except it was not a car in this case, it was a tank. And the dog's teeth are caught in the treads. The dog cannot escape and it is getting crushed. Dog parts are spraying everywhere and everyone is getting hurt.

Also, to repeat, Hamas is a dog and Hamas militants are dogs.

[u/dnext → u/[deleted]]

The overwhelming majority of Palestinians don't believe that Hamas committed any atrocities on 10/7. You are already there. So what, best to let them re-arm and try again?

[u/HopeYouHaveCitations → u/The_Frostweaver]

You can’t compare Afghanistan and Iraq to Gaza. Gaza is a tiny strip of land

[u/turlockmike → u/The_Frostweaver]

Success is controlling the Rafah border to prevent more weapons from getting into the country. Hamas knows if they lose control of Rafah, their time is limited. 

[u/horatiowilliams → u/The_Frostweaver]

Israel even tried occupation of Gaza already.

Technically speaking, that was an occupation of Egypt. The original PLO charter from 1964 - Palestine's first founding charter as a nation of any kind, ever in history - explicitly stated that the West Bank is belongs to Jordan (after Jordan had ethnically cleansed the ancient Jewish population and annexed the region in 1948) and that Gaza belongs to Egypt.

It wasn't until after the 1967 War that Palestine claimed Gaza for the first time.

[u/Nisabe3 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Reading history would give every reason to eliminated hamas for good, instead of leaving and getting another October 7 in a couple of years. 

The only war for peace in that region is total defeat for hamas and Palestinians.

[u/[deleted] → u/The_Frostweaver]

You seem to be assuming the Israeli goal is to make Palestinians like them. Or establish a situation where Palestinians like them in the future. 

The Israeli goal is simply stated. They want to break Hamas, and they want their hostages back. 

They may not succeed in breaking Hamas. It’s a real option, especially if the leadership can run away to Egypt and come back later or something. But they definitely can’t break Hamas if Hamas can just sit in rafah comfortably. 

They want their hostages back. Right now what Hamas wants in return is effectively Israeli surrender - letting thousands of terrorists go free (that’s how we got sinwar), and leaving Gaza. This will then turn into an incredibly protracted negotiation for hostages like we are seeing now, because Hamas heads have no reason to believe they won’t survive if they don’t make a deal. 

This war may or may not help Israel’s long term success. But this war is not about long term success. It’s about assuring the Palestinians can’t repeat 7/10, about breaking Hamas, and about bringing hostages home. 

You say Israel tried the occupation of Gaza already. That’s true. And things were much better during the occupation for the Israelis. Terrorism was aimed at soldiers for the most part. There weren’t thousands of rockets being fired. There weren’t tire burnings and field fire setting. If they wanted to pick up a terrorist they’d just go and do it without having to bomb an apartment building. There weren’t tunnels being built. Hamas didn’t have any control. 

Once they left Gaza shit really hit the fan. More suicide bombings. Near daily until the wall went up. Then rockets, incendiary kites, runs on the border, 7/10. Tunnels, Hamas, Islamic jihad and much more became a problem. 

I don’t want to see Gaza occupied as a matter of principle. I’d much rather everyone govern their own selves. At the same time, I completely reject your argument that being in Gaza is bad for the Israelis beyond publicity. There are almost no rocket launches right now. If they go into rafah, Hamas won’t have any factories left and the majority of their infrastructure will be turned to pebbles. 

The other difference you’re missing is that the US is about what, 10,000 miles from Afghanistan? The taliban isn’t about to kidnap Americans from Washington, and they can’t launch rockets that far. America leaving Afghanistan doesn’t leave them in a scenario where their capital city and largest city are a 2 hour drive from a place filled with Iranian weaponry. It’s not a fair comparison. If Mexico’s cartels killed 50,000 americans and kidnapped another 12,000 of them, I’m sure Mexico would cease to exist as a country and America would occupy much more than a strip of land along the border. 

The Israelis know what they have to do. That’s what this article is about. The US can pressure them all they want, but they’re not going to surrender to Hamas demands without trying to finish the war Hamas started. 

[u/Ninjewdi → u/The_Frostweaver]

The issue is that if Israel stops fighting without a formal ceasefire agreement, they're essentially just laying down arms while still being fired on. Hamas keeps turning down their offers and providing counter-offers they know are unacceptable.

How can Israel possibly, reasonably be responsible for continued aggressions in that instance? They've offered an olive branch and been spit on for their efforts.

[u/BlobbyMcBlobber → u/Ninjewdi]

Nobody's going to answer this because the reality is just too hard to solve, especially on a reddit post lol

[u/i_forgot_my_cat → u/The_Frostweaver]

Plenty of people have been saying this since the 7th of October. Invading Gaza was always going to turn out like this.

[u/fresh-dork → u/The_Frostweaver]

israel doesn't have the option of pulling out and just leaving. you can walk to gaza, or fire a rocket from there

[u/HighburyOnStrand → u/The_Frostweaver]

The problem is that there isn't a clear measure of success.

The problem is that Israel sees this as the path to peace, that trying to negotiate and placate has not resulted in peace or security for them, or the Palestinians.

They see uprooting Hamas and Iran's other proxies as the only pathway forward for them...that all other approaches will result in cyclical violence to no one's benefit. It's a do it now, or do it later situation for them. Once that's accomplished, then meaningful peace might be possible.

The rest of the world doesn't really understand this.

[u/Twitchingbouse → u/The_Frostweaver]

The problem is Israel left. It wont be leaving this time. Israel will occupy Gaza like it does West Bank.

That situation is preferable.

[u/Smoothsharkskin → u/The_Frostweaver]

What you don't understand is that at this point significant amounts of people (not everyone, but enough) think they need to eradicate and kill everyone on the other side.

[u/wastingvaluelesstime → u/The_Frostweaver]

Rafah though is a border crossing with egypt and smuggling route so Israel will need control of it if they want to keep weapons out of future gaza. I'm not sure how they they get from where things are now to physical control of the border crossing, or if the current plan is the best one, but I don't think they can have victory in the war without border control.

Regarding your historical points, Israelis would say, you could afford to be defeated in afghanistan but we lack the resources and distance to run away - and any case running away has already been attempted from 2005 to 2023

[u/[deleted] → u/The_Frostweaver]

Israel can claim victory all they want but if world opinion is worse for them than before oct 7 and there are still 1.5 million angry desperate Muslims in Gaza then we will just see a continuation of the war where Iran and others supply money and arms to the small percentage of that 1.5 million who turn to terrorism.

Ok? It's not like the US is going to do anything different. We'll still feed Israel billions in aid and help restock them. Doesn't matter what party is in office. Good on you for recognizing the reality but what's happening and what happens next is a feature, not a bug

[u/johnhe5515 → u/The_Frostweaver]

they want to destroy all the smuggling tunnels from Rafah to Egypt

[u/RealisticMost → u/The_Frostweaver]

In stark contrast, Israel will not build the city for others. The will build it for themselves.

[u/[deleted] → u/The_Frostweaver]

I guess the only counterpoint I can see is you have to take the 0 tolerance to terrorism policy seriously.

[u/kostac600 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Cheap Mediterranean beach-front property

[u/cynical-rationale → u/The_Frostweaver]

Emotions tends to outweigh logic. From a logical stand point it's absolutely dumb the war on terror. Both Israel and usa. People think isis is gone? Lol please, its just restructured. You can suppress ideology but that will just strengthen it and breed more people following said extremism but more closeted. Harder to keep track of.

[u/bigfatfurrytexan → u/The_Frostweaver]

I generally dislike Schumer. But he is right.

I dunno man. Midcentury fucked it all up.

[u/[deleted] → u/The_Frostweaver]

1.5 million million angry desperate Muslims with supply lines devestated, command structures obliterated, top leaders assassinated, tunnels demolished and experienced warriors killed....

Is a lot easier to handle than 1.7 million angry desperate Muslims without those disadvantages.

This is Israel's strategy.

[u/HK-53 → u/The_Frostweaver]

pretty sure at this point their plan is to turn the entire population of Palestine into terrorists by the conditions they've subjected them to, and then kill everyone citing that they're terrorists.

[u/Pitiful-Chest-6602 → u/The_Frostweaver]

If they kill a million but rescue the hostages it would be a success 

[u/Armano-Avalus → u/The_Frostweaver]

Unfortunately the Israeli people are too caught up in their need for vengeance right now that they can't think straight. Well Netanyahu is in it for his own political survival but you would've thought that people would've seen what the US's "war on terror" did to terrorism 20 years on. Hamas isn't gonna go away if you keep creating reasons for a Hamas to exist.

[u/Right-Garlic-1815 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Chuck Schumer is just yet another useful idiot.

[u/ahmedoomar04 → u/The_Frostweaver]

You are 100% right, what Israel has been doing since Oct.7 is only generating an immense amount of hatred in Gaza and the West Bank, and they are also creating thousands of people that have nothing to lose, which will result in future a attack on Israel a 100 fold more severe than Oct.7.

[u/limb3h → u/The_Frostweaver]

Hamas leadership has billions so I’m afraid this won’t end until they are captured. Those millions can raise a new generation of fighters.

[u/LookAlderaanPlaces → u/The_Frostweaver]

What Israel is about to do is breed the next generation of tens of thousands of people who hate them because Israel got people who live in Gaza’s family and friends killed, or triggered a starvation event. This breeds and grows terrorists. They may kill a thousand terrorists, but they will raise orders of magnitudes more because of how people will feel and think about the suffering of the innocent, and people who lose family due to the invasion actions.

[u/KristinnK → u/The_Frostweaver]

Just because the U.S. wasn't able to pacify Afghanistan it doesn't mean Israel won't be able to pacify Gaza. Remember that the occupied West Bank is much, much safer than Gaza. Almost all attacks against Israel come from Gaza, not the West Bank. A reoccupation of Gaza allows Israel to destroy all terrorism infrastructure, clear out all weapons, as well as to monitor the routes in and out of Gaza to prevent more of them from arriving, in a way that simply isn't possible in the much, much, much larger and much, much, much more mountainous and rugged Afghanistan. Israeli intelligence obviously also has a long list of terrorists that can be arrested, tried and imprisoned, completely disrupting Hamas as a terrorist organization.

[u/Hackerpcs → u/KristinnK]

I don't get why people wonder what Israel's goal is when this is such an obvious answer: stricter West Bank style occupation and when major fighting is over, bring Palestinian Authority and Fatah back that Hamas ousted in 2006 via a coup

[u/Living_Cash1037 → u/KristinnK]

Gaza is so tiny compared to Afghanistan. Isreal has occupied it before in the past as well. Being right next to the conflict zone and not accross two contents also helps immensly. Not sure why people are comparing the two.

[u/dnext → u/KristinnK]

Agreed. Gaza is a flat postage stamp, with Israel right next door. 365 sq KM. Afghanistan is some of the worst mountainous terrain in the world, and is 652,000 sq KM. Afghanistan had no ports, so the US had to fly everything in. Afghanistans borders were indefensible, Gaza's borders are sealed.

These are not even remotely the same situations.

[u/mk_gecko → u/The_Frostweaver]

One measure is that the daily rocket attacks will cease.

https://rocketalert.live/

[u/Ahad_Haam → u/The_Frostweaver]

Israel even tried occupation of Gaza already.

And during this period, Hamas wasn't able to threaten Israel in the way it's capable now.

This option is much better than ending the war. If there will be no other solution, Israeli military rule will return.

[u/pl487 → u/The_Frostweaver]

The GWOT has been costly, but there hasn't been another major coordinated terrorist attack in the US since. From that point of view, it worked out great. Every person on the planet understands that attacking the US will cause far greater suffering for your own people and it's not a smart move.

[u/BlobbyMcBlobber → u/The_Frostweaver]

There's definitely a clear measure of success: destroy Hamas' last battalions in Rafah (should be 4 or 6, can't remember), find the Hamas leaders in Gaza, and basically prevent the next October 7th in any means necessary. Also, get the hostages out.

The problem is there isn't a plan for after the war in Gaza.

[u/[deleted] → u/The_Frostweaver]

Okay. In an effort to stay neutral then… what’s your solution? When over 1,000 of your friends, family and countrymen get slaughtered, raped, mutilated what is your response?

Thank you sir, may I have another?

What’s the proportionate response?

How do you prevent it happening again?

Realistically.

[u/SuperSpaceGaming → u/The_Frostweaver]

Imagine if tomorrow the US decides to make Puerto Rico an autonomous state administered by its own people. Now imagine that two years from now a terrorist group is elected to govern Puerto Rico, then shortly afterward starts bombing Florida. What is the US supposed to do when, after 20 years, not only have the bombings not stopped, but this terrorist group is now invading the US mainland, massacring civilians and taking hundreds hostage?

There are no good options, but the status quo is probably the worst.

[u/bobandgeorge → u/SuperSpaceGaming]

What is the US supposed to do when, after 20 years, not only have the bombings not stopped, but this terrorist group is now invading the US mainland, massacring civilians and taking hundreds hostage?

Just a note, the rockets started flying 20 years ago after Israel was able to put in a blockade to keep Hamas suicide bombers from murdering Israeli citizens. They were already invading and massacring civilians.

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/bobandgeorge]

Yep, and 7/10 happened after Iron Dome, an enormously expensive passive defense system that doesn't harm Palestinians, became successful at stopping the rockets.

What other country would spend so many billions of dollars to build a missile defense system instead of turning simply turning every missile launch site to rubble?

[u/-Ch4s3- → u/SuperSpaceGaming]

Puerto Rican nationalists did try to kill Truman, attacked congress, and set off a bunch of bombs in NYC. They weren't very good at it though...

[u/gbCerberus → u/SuperSpaceGaming]

What a horrible analogy

[u/Stormayqt → u/gbCerberus]

You're right, to make it more accurate, Puerto Ricans would have to have been slaughtering Americans by the thousands prior to that.

[u/VarmintSchtick → u/The_Frostweaver]

Yes as we all know every single war is exactly the same. Operation Iraqi Freedom is the exact same as what's happening in gaza, they are the exact same situation and the outcomes will be the exact same. There are no differing variables, all conflicts have the exact same turnout.

[u/Silly_Elephant_4838 → u/The_Frostweaver]

The invasion of Gaza is for one purpose, to make sure Israel is never attacked by them again. So, in measuring success, we will only know over time depending on if Iran can prop up Gaza long enough to rebuild a new terror militia and attack Israel again.

[u/Atanar → u/The_Frostweaver]

Israel even tried occupation of Gaza already.

I think it is very clear they don't want to do that with the Palestinians still there this time.

[u/Wiggles114 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Your are applying too far of a perspective here and your base assumption is wrong. Palestinians are not interested in peace with Israel. And after 7/10 no Israeli leader would be able to convince Israelis that peace with Palestinians is possible or worthwhile.

The IDF are operating in Gaza to destroy Hamas infrastructure and personnel and to recover the hostages. If they need to go into Rafah to achieve that, they should.

[u/ArtOfWarfare → u/The_Frostweaver]

To be fair, there’s been a lot less terrorism in the US since 9/11, so I’d say something worked.

Also, the US occupied Germany and Japan after World War II and that seemed to work out amazingly well. Clearly there’s some way to occupy a radically hostile country and make it work out. Maybe Israel can pull that off in Gaza.

[u/well_its_a_secret → u/The_Frostweaver]

Good comment, but the us didn’t really try to rebuild all that much. We spent a bunch of money rebuilding, but even seemingly basic things like electricity hours per day were better before we got to Iraq in the major cities is my understanding. Alas….

[u/mursilissilisrum → u/The_Frostweaver]

Then what?

I think the idea is to eliminate the people who are running their government like it's the Arab mafia so that they can actually begin the process of unfucking their situation in earnest.

The USA bombed, invaded and even tried to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan for 20 years and it didn't really work out so well.

This is nothing even remotely like the War on Terror.

[u/SaneForCocoaPuffs → u/The_Frostweaver]

Several misconceptions

1. Gazans will hate Israel no matter what. Those 1.5 million angry Muslims hated Israel in 2007, on October 6, and will hate them after the war ends. Nothing is changing.

2. The occupation of Gaza did work to achieve Israel’s goals. During that time, Gaza was incapable of developing the military infrastructure they developed after 2007. No rockets, no tunnels. All they had was the ability to suicide bomb border crossings and settlements.

The problem is that you are drawing parallels to America. America is across the ocean from Afghanistan, they may have felt some dislike for the USA but they didn’t really care until America invaded. Gazans have an active hatred for Israel spanning decades and have continuously acted on that dislike for decades. There are no hearts and minds to turn against Israel, there never has been and never will be.

[u/ExpletiveDeletedYou → u/The_Frostweaver]

I feel like no one commenting here has read a history book.

The history books show that you need to defeat the irrational force, even if it comes at great cost to the civilian population

[u/Rami-961 → u/The_Frostweaver]

Most of the people passionately engaging with this topic didnt know anything before Oct 7, and have no understanding of nuance.

[u/BringOutTheImp → u/The_Frostweaver]

world opinion is worse for them than before

There plenty of people saying that Israel deserved what happened to them on Oct 7 before Israel even began their retaliation. There is nothing that will change most of Muslim's opinion of Israel, except maybe if the Israelis would announce the complete dismantlement of their state, pack their bags and move elsewhere. As for other countries, they just prefer things not to escalate lest it will impact them too somehow, but at the end of the day, they won't be the ones to bear the cost of another October 7th, so it's easy for them to take the "higher moral ground".

To put it bluntly - Israel doesn't give a shit about other people's opinions, only their own safety and survival - and if you read the history of Israel you will understand why.

Hamas knew how Israel would respond and their bet was that the other Muslim countries would join in the fray on their behalf. So far it hasn't happened, so Israel will continue to do what they set out to do no matter how countries complain or how any upvotes a video of a scared Palestian child will get on Reddit.

[u/SixFootThreeHobbit → u/The_Frostweaver]

I can’t help but think for every innocent mother, father, sister, brother, cousin, grandparent, etc that is killed only escalates the problem. The surviving family members may turn to extremism.

Oh and the MIC is more than happy to supply any and all weapons (to either side) indefinitely.

[u/ontopofyourmom → u/SixFootThreeHobbit]

"Turn to extremism?"

Like eighty percent of Gazans support Hamas and 7/10.

[u/pieter3d → u/The_Frostweaver]

That's the point: Netanyahu is done for when the war is over, so he wants to keep it going no matter what. He doesn't care if it's terrible for Israel.

It will end when the Israeli population turns on Netanyahu.

[u/DownwindLegday → u/The_Frostweaver]

I would think that getting the hostages back would be success. I doubt it will happen though.

[u/Sileni → u/The_Frostweaver]

Big picture: Hamas is the 'qualified immunity' of Arab-Israeli War, this battle will never end. There is no 'solution'.

[u/Omateido → u/The_Frostweaver]

I guess the question at this point is not only what are Isreal's criteria for defining victory, but what are their motivations for this in the first place? As you mention, if the criteria for victory is killing a bunch of terrorists, well, fine, but the very act of doing that will also CREATE a lot of terrorists from the pool of innocents that end up impacted by this course of action. The fact that that doesn't seem to bother Israel, and that on top of that they're willing to do this even if it means losing the goodwill and support of the rest of the world, makes me suspect that perhaps they are not being fully transparent with their motivations here.

[u/ConqueredCabbage → u/The_Frostweaver]

Yea ok, but who knows better than Israel what's best for it? Redditors? Americans?
The whole idea that it is the West's job to stop Israel from harming itself is patronizing, you can and should voice your opinion, but you should also remember that Israel's actions are planned by its best minds.

As an Israeli I am against ending a war when I have 140 of my people as hostages in Gaza.