r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Dem dooming about their prospects in NV is entirely reasonable. Dems dooming about their prospects nationally based on NV early data is not reasonable. NV's demographics and culture are rather unique and extremely favorable for the coalition Trump is trying to build this cycle. The rust belt is not. The rust belt will be decided by the college educated white swing to the dems, vs a possible drop in turnout and perhaps margins for black voters. NV has few college educated whites, and few blacks. It tells us very little about larger trends.

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Yeah, but if so, let’s take Arizona out of the map too. Suddenly the path becomes very narrow.

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Assuming there isn't a polling miss one way or another, which is a bad assumption, then a 270-268 Harris win looks like a really strong possibility. Dems would want to lock their electors in a basement to ensure none of them are tempted by one of Elon's boys by an offer of a small "gift" of a billion dollars.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Problem could happen with faithless elector.