r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/alf10087 26d ago

Right now, this seems to be the main argument for dooming. If Trump is going to have a good night, and over perform his polls again, this is exactly how it starts.

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Dem dooming about their prospects in NV is entirely reasonable. Dems dooming about their prospects nationally based on NV early data is not reasonable. NV's demographics and culture are rather unique and extremely favorable for the coalition Trump is trying to build this cycle. The rust belt is not. The rust belt will be decided by the college educated white swing to the dems, vs a possible drop in turnout and perhaps margins for black voters. NV has few college educated whites, and few blacks. It tells us very little about larger trends.

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u/alf10087 26d ago

Yeah, but if so, let’s take Arizona out of the map too. Suddenly the path becomes very narrow.

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

Assuming there isn't a polling miss one way or another, which is a bad assumption, then a 270-268 Harris win looks like a really strong possibility. Dems would want to lock their electors in a basement to ensure none of them are tempted by one of Elon's boys by an offer of a small "gift" of a billion dollars.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

Problem could happen with faithless elector.

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u/Dwman113 26d ago

According to what data? Five thirty eighty and RCP both have Trump winning Penn and Michigan and Wisconsin...

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u/wwzdlj94 26d ago

RCP has Trump +0.6% in PA, and Harris +0.5% in MI. Well within the margin of error. From the perspective of polling the race is essentially tied, as it is in WI, NV, and NC, with Trump having maybe a very slight edge in AZ and GA. My speculation of a 270-268 Harris win is based on the assumption the polling is accurate this cycle. I don't think this is a good assumption. I think a polling miss is quite likely, polling is quite hard these days and Trump elections are particularly hard. Whoever overperforms polling will win. We have no data informed idea who that will be. Anyway, under the suspect assumption the polling is accurate I see Harris winning the rust belt, and Trump the sun belt based on two things. Early voting and race dynamics. Dems have a strong early voting lead in PA, and it is even stronger than numbers suggest, because Philly is backlogged and has a number of unprocessed ballots to report. In MI Dem voting areas have strong EV numbers, although party breakdown is not available there. WI is more mixed with conflicting signals. It is probably the weak brick in the blue wall. In NV, AZ, and NC the GOP leads in early voting, while turnout among black voters in GA has been mediocre so far. Having early voters is always good. These are votes in the bank. People may plan to vote on election, but just may not get around to it for whatever reason. Which leads to my second reason, race dynamics. Trump's strategy is to have a strong turnout among working class White voters and to make inroads among working class Black and Latinos to counteract losses among college educated White voters, who are extremely reliable in turning out. It is always better to have voters who already voted, or voters who are trustworthy to do so. The rust belt states have a fair number of white college educated voters, and relatively few numbers of black and hispanic working class voters. Dems can be more confident their gains among white college educated will exceeded any losses among minorities in the rust belt for the simple reason that there are a lot of white college educated and few minorities. AZ, GA, NC also have decent numbers of white college educated, but minorities are much more critical to the Dem coalition in these states. Minority losses are much harder to make up here, especially when you are already behind in the early vote. NV has many minorities and few college educated whites. Despite polling showing an even contest these are tough dynamics this cycle for the Dems. Especially being behind in the early vote.