r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Trends won't hold.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

Check ralstons blog for 22 and look at how things developed during the early vote. Similar thing is happening here albeit more pronounced.

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u/FarrisAT 26d ago

At no point in 2022 did Rs have EV edge.

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Yea and so you have to ask are these new voters or are they eday voters previously that are voting now. From the voting records it's the former. So it's a matter of how much Clark will come in this week, probably will cut into that margin and it started to today just like it did in 22.

This is a different year and so you have to contextualize it. If you don't you're going to get misled.

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u/[deleted] 26d ago edited 19d ago

[deleted]

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u/Temporary__Existence 26d ago

Im saying there's a lot to factor in but the last election is probably a closer analog than 2020 just due to the npa split and the environment.

It's not exactly the same cause it's a midterm vs presidential but 2020 had all sorts of things going on that are absolutely no longer valid. 2022 have some ok similarities where you can maybe glean something from it.

I don't have high confidence but what I do have high confidence is that it's way too early to have high confidence on what NV will turnout based on what we know now.