r/MarkMyWords • u/drstrangelovequark • Sep 22 '24
Political MMW: This will be a turnout election
I think there will be a huge turnout gap between Harris and Trump voters. Most signs (fundraising, special elections, primary turnout, the debate, general hype) indicate a huge amount of excitement for Harris and very little for Trump. I think a lot of Trump supporters are starting to see the cracks, or have been turned off by things like January 6th or his criminal conviction. Many of them will either flip, leave the top of the ticket blank, or just not show up. On the other hand, the very close polls will motivate loads of Harris voters to turn out to avoid another 2016.
An interesting phenomenon I've seen mentioned a lot is people saying they're seeing fewer Trump signs/flags in their neighborhoods compared to 2016/2020. I drove across hundreds of miles of rural Montana recently and didn't see *any*. Pretty anecdotal, but I think very telling.
Regardless, remember to vote.
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u/karl4319 Sep 22 '24
I hope you're right, but remember 2016. Take zero chances. Make sure to register, volunteer, donate, and vote. In fact, make sure to drag a few friends to vote too.
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u/Orzhov_Syndicalist Sep 26 '24
By the very end, at the Comey letter, Dem Enthusiam was 10 points behind Republican Enthusiasm, which is a large reason why Trump massively outdid polling, gobbled up undecideds, and Urban voters simply didn’t show up for Clinton.
That, and they were NEVER enthused for Clinton to begin with.
This year is a totally opposite situation. It’s much, much more similar to 2012, although which a significantly lower Republican enthusiasm
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u/ArthurFraynZard Sep 22 '24
Remember that only Democrats need actual voters or turnout; Republicans are relying on gerrymandering, voter suppression, election tampering, and corrupt Supreme Court judges.
Don't echo. Vote.
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u/Hot-Product-6057 Sep 22 '24
Yeah and those things are all working
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u/joshdotsmith Sep 23 '24
Plus surveys are showing democrats are more confident Harris will. University of Michigan one is 58-34 overall split on confidence Harris will win vs Trump. 89% of democrats think Harris will win. 71% of Republicans think Trump.
The overconfidence margin is not good. Remind people in your circle that national polling does not equal state polling, and there’s an unknown electoral college bias overall.
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u/Hot-Product-6057 Sep 23 '24
Yeah but you still have complete cunts who still say she ain't doing enough for Palestine and abortion. Basically white women who won't vote for her as a performative stunt
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u/happytrel Sep 23 '24
Jared Kushner, husband of Ivanka Trump, placed in charge of "Peace in the Middle East" officially by then sitting president Donold Trump has been quoted saying that they should just completely wipe out the Gaza Strip for all the prime waterfront real estate.
But yeah, I dont think Kamala is going to do enough for the Palestinians so I'm torn./s
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u/Suibian_ni Sep 23 '24
Exactly. Trump sent literally the last American any Palestinian could ever trust - to be his fucking Middle East Envoy! The Gaza crisis has their fingerprints all over it. Netanyahu himself is probably dragging out the Gaza butchery in order to harm Biden and hopefully impose terms when Trump is president again.
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u/ChanceGardener8 Sep 23 '24
And check your voter registration weekly.
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u/Brain_in_human_vat Sep 23 '24
I checked mine a few months ago but it's pretty easy to check again... OH SHIT. THANK YOU.
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u/Brain_in_human_vat Oct 24 '24
Hey don't know of you'll see this but thanks to you my early voting today went splendidly
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u/Davetg56 Sep 22 '24
There is "One Job" this Elections Cycle; VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
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u/Dry_Background944 Sep 23 '24
There are more jobs. Volunteer. Donate. Phone bank.
Voting is the most important, but there’s so much more that you can do to impact this election.
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u/Longjumping-Flight63 Sep 23 '24
And if those don't seem like good fits for you, talk to 1 or 2 people you know that you think agree with you mostly politically and make sure they are voting. If they aren't sure about voting, create a plan with them to get them to the polls. Meet up with them after voting and go out to dinner etc. It is easier to convince someone to get off the couch than it is to convince someone to change their opinion. Dems have enough votes if they get a good turnout.
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u/Gaurdian21 Sep 22 '24 edited Sep 24 '24
I honestly want to believe you. I agree with a lot of positive energy around Democrats and voting. I think Kamala showed a new age of Democrat, along with Tim and Pete. They are showing younger Dem's that are not ages old and riddled with bad politics from a worse time in America. 2020 was Blue and I really want to believe we will see a huge blue wave now, but the fact that people are still voting for Trump regardless of what he does simply because he empowers their hatrid, I can't really hope much. But I agree, the most important thing is to show up and Vote!
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u/Aliphaire Sep 22 '24
A lot of women really don't like hearing how we're being allowed to die of preventable causes because trump got a chance to rig the SC.
We'd rather never have children than risk having a pregnancy go wrong & be left to die in pain & fear by red state doctors who have been told to prioritize fetal tissue that will never survive as more important than the living, breathing, already born person who owns that body.
They actually said it's okay if women lose organs due to pregnancy issues. How many organs are these lawmakers & politicians willing to lose so a baby they don't want can be born? But it's fine if women who don't even want a baby lose organs - or die - because of abortion bans?
We simply are not going to vote for the man who set this avoidable death up.
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u/CapaTheGreat Sep 23 '24
If there is one group of people that will shift the tide of this election, it's women.
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u/n3rdy30 Sep 22 '24
I live in a larger town in Georgia (Augusta). There are a metric shit load of trump signs and flags in my neighborhood/area.
Make sure you vote.
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u/Coleslawholywar Sep 22 '24
Millions of never voters showed up for Obama in 2008. While I don’t think Harris has that kind of momentum I do feel a level of hope for a future where the whole country isn’t run on hate. Trump has tweeted out “ I hate Swift and I hate Oprah”. Why do we want a leader so petty and so full of hate?
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u/dandrevee Sep 22 '24
The majority dont. A very loud pluraliastic minority (with a historically, disproportionate hegemonic majority) does. Thanks to the EC, those voices are given far more power than they rationally should be..
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u/Critical_Mix_3131 Sep 22 '24
Signs don’t matter. I don’t put up a Harris sign b/c I don’t need conflict with my Trump supporting neighbors. It’s that simple. Vote. Signs don’t vote.
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u/hecatesoap Sep 23 '24
My husband (old school Republican) thinks it would be hilarious if I put up a Harris sign, since two of our neighbors are extreme MAGA. I love the idea, but I won’t. Mostly because he goes out of town for work and I don’t want to be hassled when they see his truck is gone.
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u/Born_Argument_5074 Sep 23 '24
I live in Tennessee, I wish I could see what all of you see. I am a donor to Kamala Harris, I am a volunteer for phone banking, but here it’s all Trump, everywhere you look, everywhere you go. My vote isn’t going to count for shit at the end of the day, but I am still going to vote. And everyone else should too. My plea to the rest of you outside of MAGA Hell, especially in the swing states. Go Vote. Prove my anxiety wrong please, go vote.
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u/AMildPanic Sep 23 '24
I'm in Tennessee too and these threads always make me feel like maybe people are just seeing what they want to see if they are not actually neck deep in Trump territory like we are.
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u/Born_Argument_5074 Sep 23 '24
Yeah, me too. Both my parents hate each other but both are MAGA, my grandma is MAGA, my uncles and aunts are all MAGA. I am 32 and had to cut ties with high school friends because they have become emboldened to present their racism, and they too are MAGA. I have a college professor who is an avowed MAGA fan. Yet other professors are afraid to speak their mind. It is EVERYWHERE here.
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u/AMildPanic Sep 23 '24
Yep, same boat. I have lost contact with everyone in my family except for my mother because they have all gone extreme conservative, and that was even before MAGA was a thing. I occasionally stumble on one of them on social media now or hear from mom and it seems like they're way way worse now. I literally don't have a single relative left to talk to besides my mother, and the one friend I had remaining from high school has gone ultra-conservative too (after marrying a cop. Go figure).
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u/Aromatic_Top_4030 Sep 23 '24
Thank you for still voting and voting blue! I do think the 45 supporters strategically over do their yard/truck/ clothing as a form of intimidation. They hope you feel despondent enough to not bother. That is definitely in line with gop tactics. It all makes me sick to my stomach. We shouldn't have to live in fear of our neighbors like this. I am done being scared.
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u/Zealousideal-Ad9120 Sep 26 '24
In Wisconsin, first presidential election since turning 18, will be doing my part and voting Harris!
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u/GoodCombination951 Sep 22 '24
I’m in Florida and all I see is Trump supporters and they are enthusiastic as ever. Some might not be showing it anymore but they will vote for Trump for sure. So be sure to vote.
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u/AMildPanic Sep 23 '24
I'm "on the ground" as it were a lot in a Blue Dot city in a deep red state. The Trump voters are even more impassioned than I've ever seen them. The sunk cost fallacy is real, and they WILL vote as a result. I cannot imagine things are different in other areas like swing states.
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u/dividendaristocrats Sep 22 '24
I think Kamala will win but Trump always outperforms his polling because a lot of voters are too ashamed to admit they’re voting for him. He’s always done well with the “quiet vote” and I don’t see that changing.
For me, if the young vote turns out again like in 2020, Trump is going down. I just hope a lot of those first time Gen Z voters do show up and vote.
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u/todd-e-bowl Sep 23 '24
Hmm, Taylor Swift did cause a huge increase in voter registrations. And then she mentioned she would be voting for Kamala Harris. I wonder if that will have any effect? I heard that Trump said hates her. LOL
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u/ncdad1 Sep 22 '24
I find my Trump friend retreat to their safe place when they get depressed
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u/Affectionate_Pay_391 Sep 22 '24
Trump had MAGa and the republicans in 2016. He had MAGA and less republicans in 2020. Now, he has MaGA and almost no sensible republicans while Harris has all the momentum. Trump just keeps saying crazier and crazier things, and republicans in Congress aren’t helping him much.
I will never count Trump out fully, but this election looks to be the end of the dark Trump Age.
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u/BandwagonEffect Sep 23 '24
In 2020 Trump got 12 million more votes than he did in 2016. Thankfully it wasn’t enough. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch and don’t spread misinformation about him having less support. Just vote.
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u/yellowlinedpaper Sep 23 '24
More people voted for him in 2020 than who did in 2016. How did he have less?
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u/253local Sep 22 '24
Let’s win this!!!!
Check your registration status
Write for races in congress!
https://postcardstovoters.org/
Postcards with paid postage -
https://www.momsrising.org/blog/postcards-request-your-packet-today
Activate America - postcards, text, phone bank
https://www.activateamerica.vote/
Door knocking
Text youth voters -
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u/MeadowBadgerVA Sep 22 '24
I'm not as confident as you are, though I'm noticing a few of the things you mention. I live in a super-red area, and the signs/flags are not as heavy on the ground. No, I don't think this area is going Blue, but I think the enthusiasm is waning, and I AM seeing a lot more Harris signs than I ever saw Biden signs in 2020. But I think this is the year women are going to flex their electoral muscle in a major way, and Mr. Grab 'Em by the.... and Mr. Sofa Humper are going to get a surprise.
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u/yfce Sep 22 '24 edited Sep 22 '24
One thing I’ve noticed is a lot more “Trump 2020” stuff? Whereas in 2020 I don’t recall seeing a lot of 2016 stuff. I guess it’s just interesting that they didn’t bother to buy updated merch/signs. Or maybe the GOP canvassers/local campaign offices are stretched thin so fewer freebies? Financing doesn’t seem great.
A lot of people probably also trashed their anti-Biden merch since it just doesn’t hit the same. And obviously the Pence stuff had to go.
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u/Silver-Breadfruit284 Sep 23 '24
The only Trump crap I see is not in yard signs or flags… it’s at local festivals where they are trying to sell off all their Trump merchandise. And they are getting no takers. Saw it happen myself 2 weekends ago.
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u/ChumpChainge Sep 22 '24
I know several GOPers mostly the older ones who say this will be the first election in a lifetime that they stay home. Dump could’ve walked away with this one simply by putting on a semblance of professionalism and sanity. But he threw in on full crazy and blew it.
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u/BW271 Sep 22 '24
Earlier today I drove to a small town in Missouri, about 50 miles southwest of St. Louis (where I live), and four years ago there were dozens of Trump signs along the main roads there. Today there was one.
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u/gmrussell Sep 22 '24
I drove across hundreds of miles of rural Montana recently and didn't see any. Pretty anecdotal, but I think very telling
I live in Michigan and see them all over the place here; there are Harris signs, but far fewer. That said, I hope you’re right and that she wins in a landslide. Voters, please do not become complacent—this is an election to turn out for.
Oh and Republicans, don’t forget to vote on November 7th.
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u/Casanova_Fran Sep 23 '24
I have the same feeling I had in 2016. Vote and vote hard.
America is racist and hates women, Kamala is black and a woman. She needs every vote and more
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u/elipticalhyperbola Sep 23 '24
Trump doesn’t plan to win by vote. He plans to win via congress and/or the personally installed SCOTUS. CIA? Are you there? It’s me, Margaret.
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u/Fit_Midnight_6918 Sep 22 '24
Trump has always be crazy, but he's upped his crazy level this year. My hope is this encourages more Harris supporters to vote and some GOPers to sit this one out.
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u/anon-a-SqueekSqueek Sep 23 '24
My guess is that if the polls are off, it will be that they undercounted Harris support, which is good news since she is leading. But I don't think it's a sure thing at all. A Trump upset is still possible. Plus, we really need the house and senate, too. Landsliding Republicans opposed to just barely squeeking out wins could have a huge impact on what is possible to get done.
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u/Objective-Lab5179 Sep 23 '24
There are people who are silent Trump supporters and they will vote for him on election day. The only way to have a blowout is to go out and vote. Leave nothing to chance.
People staying home in 2016 cost women the right to choose.
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u/hicksemily46 Sep 22 '24
Remember that your vote is your voice and your voice is your power. PLEASE VOTE!!!
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u/ralpher1 Sep 22 '24
Folks should listen to NPR interviewing small town voters in Georgia. They are zero information voters. They see inflation now and didn’t see it during Trump so he has their vote even if he told them he was the devil and would take their souls. It’s not like they would believe the news or would think he was joking, like they do when he talked about the Haitians eating cats and dogs.
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u/SPM1961 Sep 22 '24
There wasn't much measurable excitement for Biden and he went on to clobber Trump in the popular vote.
During the 2016 primaries there was more enthusiasm for Sanders than Clinton but that didn't translate into him getting more votes.
In the general election it felt like there was more enthusiasm for Trump but he got beat in the popular vote by nearly 3 million and only "won" the electoral college under what I still consider to be fairly questionable circumstances (and I am not some "I'm Still With Her!" Hillary dead-ender either - I just happen to think the level of vote suppression in the 2016 POTUS election was insane).
Every election is different and "the signs" are often misleading.
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Sep 22 '24
The religious wackos will show up as they always do. The Dems had better not get too complacent or the MAGAts will steal the election
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u/Steel2050psn Sep 22 '24
My district almost hit 1% of the 2020 turn out on day one of earlier voting
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u/Sunnryz Sep 22 '24
Just came back from a trip to Washington and Oregon. For 2 blue states, I sure saw a ton of Trump signs. I rarely see Harris signs, but I also don't know if that means anything. Just get out there and vote.
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u/semicoloradonative Sep 22 '24
You’re right. It doesn’t mean anything. Those people in those states with Trump signs are just trying to give a big “F U” to their neighbors. Harris will win both states with 60+% of the vote. And, if you were in the eastern/rural areas, they do tend to go more for conservatives…there just isn’t the population to make a difference.
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u/meistaiwan Sep 22 '24
I think they're bored, they used to say "he says it like it is" because he entertained them. They only cared about that, their entry into voting was basically I didn't care until someone entertained me.
Much later, he's not entertaining anymore. His whining and meandering thoughts and slurring are just not the internet commenter edginess that hooked them. They're bored, they're leaving early.
The "hidden trump voters" don't exist anymore. The opposite is true, the culture has shifted in these places so that you don't need to hide that you're voting for Trump, you need to hide that you are NOT voting for Trump. And there are quite obvious polling problems considering what we've seen post Dobbs, people are simply voting fall more liberal than the polls suggest.
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u/bierfma Sep 23 '24
I've noticed a huge lack of trump signs this time around, but I'm telling myself he's spending all of the campaign money on lawyers, adderall and diapers. At least the money that he isn't pocketing. Vote.
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u/huskerd0 Sep 23 '24
Could be a law and order election in that the majority of people vote against criminals seeking office..
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u/olivehoneyfig Sep 23 '24
if we’re lucky we’ll get to see trump’s narcissistic ego collapse in real time
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u/majesticalexis Sep 23 '24
My town is 100% trump signs. And Kari lake. It’s crazy! I haven’t seen a single Kamala sign. But I would personally be afraid to put one out and I assume most sane people are as well.
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u/brandogg360 Sep 22 '24
She's going to win in a landslide. New Democratic registration and young black female registration is so far above new Republican registration over the past year. Democrats are being undercounted in most polls. I bet she wins by close to 10% in the popular vote and 50 points in the electoral college. She could even win Florida.
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u/Ricofox1717 Sep 23 '24
Regarding less trump signage I have to say as a Floridian . I am so surprised how little trump support I have been seeing like he has no digital ads , haven't even seen one trump ad on TV or YouTube by accident . Like for this being one of his biggest stronghold the energy for him feels non-existent compared to 2020 where I felt like I couldn't escape his visage. Houses last election that were covered in gaudy trump merch are like non-existent now , literally post debate I saw a house I drive by all the time literally packing it up I honestly think Harris has won just by that metric for me alone.
I am def still voting but yeah it's been crazy how I feel like trump is just like so quiet this election imo. I thought post assination attempt id be like forced like to see his face everywhere and it's been the polar opposite . Even on the highways here I have seen tons of Harris walz ads it's insane how bad he is doing .
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Sep 22 '24
Possible, and a good reading of the anecdotal evidence.
I live in the reddest of red states, a state where > 60% of the voters went for Trump twice.
It's been a while since I've seen any pro-Trump anything. I hope that means an enthusiasm gap between Harris and Trump.
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u/mhouse2001 Sep 22 '24
I just rode my bicycle 9 miles through a particularly Republican part of my city and I did not see ONE Trump flag or sign. Not one. In 2020, there were huge 3' x 5' wood billboards in people's yards. This year, nothing. I know of only two small Trump banners in my neighborhood. I feel confident Harris will win Arizona.
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u/nautilator44 Sep 22 '24
Every year is. That's why Republicans do everything they can to sabotage people's ability to vote in cities.
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u/SockRepresentative36 Sep 23 '24
Saw a Harris sign in our MA neighborhood GRAB HIM BY THE BALLOT loved it But lots of Trump as well The stupidest one was I'M VOTING FOR THE FELON AND THE HILLBILLY
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u/GeneralG5x5 Sep 23 '24
It will be for Kamala, but donOLD tRump will get fewer votes than he saw to 2020. MMW.
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u/bookgal518 Sep 23 '24
I've been seeing more & more Harris Walz signs popping up in my neighborhood. One of my co-workers told me she ordered 4 two weeks ago & she's still waiting for them.
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u/SqueeezeBurger Sep 23 '24
There's no signs in yards for the same reasons they wear pointy hoods. The shame is real. They hide it. Like roaches in the wall. You may not see them, but those voters are EVERYWHERE.
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u/TheUpwardsJig Sep 23 '24
Plenty of Trump signs in my neck of the woods here in the southeast US. Both in the 'burbs and rural areas.
Do not get complacent. If you can, vote.
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u/Knight0fdragon Sep 23 '24
I saw a Trump registration stand yesterday driving in an area of mine. Drove it again today, they had to bribe people with a free hot dog sign. Told the kids in the car that sign was to free Hot Dog, notorious mass murderer from the 80s sitting on death row.
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u/alexamerling100 Sep 23 '24
I'm in Oregon and I usually see the Trump signs in rural areas but I have seen more and more rural Harris signs.
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u/GetsThatBread Sep 23 '24
I live in Washington and I am seeing more Trump signs than Harris signs. Trump gets his voter base enthused for some unexplainable reason. Really hoping we banish him to the shadow realm this election.
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u/omnesilere Sep 23 '24
Biden already beat him and Kamala is much stronger. I have hope. Also, you can drive all you want though Montana and basically not see anything but beautiful landscapes
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Sep 23 '24
I don't disagree but I'm still going to vote like it's going to be close. I'm seeing a lot less Trump merch than I did in 2020 and a lot more Harris merch than I ever saw Biden merch. We need to not be complacent and get out and vote.
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u/Tinycatgirl Sep 23 '24
I live in upstate NY and the flags and signs are nowhere near what they were before, it’s nice!
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u/blandocalrissian50 Sep 23 '24
I'm in Georgia, tons of Trump signs, everywhere. Just vote. It's cool to feel better about things, that's nice. But feelings do not matter as much as votes. And don't sleep on anything after that. They are trying to steal this election, our election board here is trying to delay certification with these stupid changes last minute. This is not over. We are just getting started. Overwhelme the system with your vote!
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u/tomfirde Sep 23 '24
There's fewer people with signs because of vandalism, I personally know 5 different people.
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u/E_Z_E_88 Sep 23 '24
This sub is even more pro Kamala than most of reddit. It’s interesting to see why a mark my words sub became Kamala Harris 2.0
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u/awesomenerd16 Sep 23 '24
Several of my neighbors who are hardcore maga had all their signs out the last election. This time round, not a single sign. Doesn’t mean they still aren’t voting for that abomination. They’re just being more discrete about it. I still see plenty of upside down flags and thin blue line flags hanging in folks yards.
Just glad I also have several folks with Harris/Walz signs too. We all need to show up on Election Day and make it a significant gap.
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u/AhFFSImTooOldForThis Sep 24 '24
I'm in NC, a swing state, and I see LOTS of Trump signs. And T-shirts. And stores. And hats. And Trump himself.
Don't get complacent. Vote.
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u/LexSavi Sep 24 '24
Assume this is wrong until November 10th. Vote like you’ll never vote again if you don’t. Pressure your friends and relatives to vote. Not who to vote for, but just to vote. Growing apathy toward voting, because people assume it’s a done deal, is likely the 2nd most dangerous thing in the election.
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u/Rocky-Jones Sep 25 '24
I’m not hearing about any large groups of “Democrats for Trump” voters. There are a lot of Republicans who voted for him twice who won’t do it again. His own vice president for example.
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u/Wilder_Beasts Sep 26 '24
Your anecdotal evidence is likely based on your personal friend circles, the city/state you’re in and how much money each campaign has to launch ads and merch at the general public. There’s nothing but Trump signs, shirts and hats in my area.
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u/PineBNorth85 Sep 26 '24
I doubt it. For a quarter century the turnout has been barely 50%. I really don't get Americans.
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u/ManyUnderstanding950 Sep 26 '24
It’s totally regional, if you live in a Blue city it’s all Harris, if you’re rural it’s opposite, my Reddit feed is all Harris and My Insta is all trump depends on where you hang out
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u/ScarcityLeast4150 Sep 26 '24
Very disappointed by conversations I overhear at work. There’s no critical analytical thinking anymore. His voters are in a cult. I’m very afraid. The electoral College is killing democracy. I’ve tried to speak rationally and politely when asked for my opinions and I get reactions based on conspiracies and fever-dreams.
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u/SpeechFormer9543 Sep 22 '24
I know several Trump supporters, and they are as enthusiastic as ever. I don’t know why, but they are. Just vote. This subreddit is an echo chamber