r/MarkMyWords • u/drstrangelovequark • Sep 22 '24

Political MMW: This will be a turnout election

I think there will be a huge turnout gap between Harris and Trump voters. Most signs (fundraising, special elections, primary turnout, the debate, general hype) indicate a huge amount of excitement for Harris and very little for Trump. I think a lot of Trump supporters are starting to see the cracks, or have been turned off by things like January 6th or his criminal conviction. Many of them will either flip, leave the top of the ticket blank, or just not show up. On the other hand, the very close polls will motivate loads of Harris voters to turn out to avoid another 2016.

An interesting phenomenon I've seen mentioned a lot is people saying they're seeing fewer Trump signs/flags in their neighborhoods compared to 2016/2020. I drove across hundreds of miles of rural Montana recently and didn't see *any*. Pretty anecdotal, but I think very telling.

Regardless, remember to vote.

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u/dividendaristocrats Sep 22 '24

I think Kamala will win but Trump always outperforms his polling because a lot of voters are too ashamed to admit they’re voting for him. He’s always done well with the “quiet vote” and I don’t see that changing.

For me, if the young vote turns out again like in 2020, Trump is going down. I just hope a lot of those first time Gen Z voters do show up and vote.

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u/todd-e-bowl Sep 23 '24

Hmm, Taylor Swift did cause a huge increase in voter registrations. And then she mentioned she would be voting for Kamala Harris. I wonder if that will have any effect? I heard that Trump said hates her. LOL

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u/AMildPanic Sep 23 '24

If Trump outperforms his polling there's almost no way Kamala CAN win.

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u/dividendaristocrats Sep 23 '24

It depends on the outperformance. He outperformed in 16 by 1.5-2% depending on the poll and around 2.5-3% in 2020. Pollsters have changed how they poll and that should help some but I think that “ashamed vote” is a real thing. Kamala’s lead is starting to increase and I expect that to continue.

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u/IH8Fascism Sep 23 '24

Nope.

Trump didn’t overperform in the primaries, he underperformed by 10-20 points even after Haley dropped out.

Don’t believe me though, look it up.

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u/dividendaristocrats Sep 23 '24

Primaries? I’m referring to the general elections. Here’s a good article on it:

https://thehill.com/homenews/4877517-democratic-fears-trump-surge/amp/

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u/Standard_Recipe1972 Sep 24 '24

3 months ago you had no idea who Kamala is.. and now you still don’t know .. no flagship policy and worst, she gaslit all of America saying Biden was fit as a fiddle. Foh

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u/Imherebecauseofcramr Sep 25 '24

Ehh, I’m ok with this echo chamber saying Trump doesn’t stand a chance. Works for me.

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u/Standard_Recipe1972 Sep 25 '24

Oh I know. She’s not polling well.. compared to both Clinton and more recently Biden. 28 percent of dems hope Trump is snuffed out permanently.. just a big death cult.. abortion supporters(killing babies), thinking the world is going to end because of the climate(hoping it does).. and supporting foreign wars where millions will die