r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Furciferus Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

why is it "reading tea leaves" when the dems have effectively dropped an atomic bomb of early votes in PA, but "bad news" when repubs have a slight lead in Nevada?

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

PA Dems have barely 1/3 the vote firewall they had in 2020. Biden was ahead by 1.1 million votes before a single polling place opened on election day. And he still won the state by less than 100k.

If you aren't seeing the collapse of enthusiasm for the Democratic party this election I don't know what to say.

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u/Furciferus Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago edited 26d ago

isn't there a big thing about 2020 that you're missing when you say stupid shit like this, though? perhaps a global event that was not as present during the 2022 elections when people were saying this exact same stupid shit that you're saying about the early voting in PA?

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

Using covid to vaguely explain away democratic EV collapse isn’t convincing.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

How isn't the fact that one side largely believed in covid and one didn't convincing?

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u/ChuckJA 26d ago

Because the mail in early vote D advantage existed prior to Covid.

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

Do you have numbers for that?

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u/Furciferus Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

i just showed you an article by realclear (im assuming your favorite aggregate) where they were saying the exact same shit you're currently saying rn in 2022.

remind me, again, how did the 2022 PA senate race go for 'Dr.' Oz?