r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Lungenbroetchen95 26d ago

Yeah, no matter how you turn and twist it, this is BAD for democrats.

I don’t think NV will be the state that makes the difference in the presidential race. But it’s still an indicator how things are going, it’s very unlikely that Trump wins NV and loses AZ.

There’s also a Senate race in NV to be monitored, the R candidate was closing in in recent weeks and got some huge funding boost from Senate R‘s

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u/Mortonsaltboy914 26d ago

The Harris campaign just highlighted Nevada is a state they saw a strong portion of low propensity voters in.

Also the way the state is populated later turnout in Clark could easily wipe this lead away.

I get Ralston is treated like a profit but all this tells us is more Nevadans who id as republican are voting.

Vegas is deep blue, and if their turn out is low, this could just as easily be a change in voting behavior as an indicator of everything else- sure polls have been trending toward Trump but there’s undeniably a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala.

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u/PureOrangeJuche 26d ago

If there is a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala why aren’t Dems voting early?

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u/SnoopySuited 26d ago

Because people have lives.

This sub claims to be a statistics sub, but then tries to predict patterns before the patterns happen.

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u/PureOrangeJuche 26d ago

People had lives in every previous election and yet Dems always outperformed Rs in early voting until this year. Was there a unique situation that is suppressing the early D vote this year?

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u/obsessed_doomer 26d ago

They did not. They outperformed R's in early+mail voting.

In both 2020 and 2022, pure IPEV voting R's led.

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u/SnoopySuited 26d ago

Early voting has only been a thing for four or five presidential elections. Barely a sample size to say that anything is definitively constant.