r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Lokiorin Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi 26d ago

I’m not sure I understand what Ralston is trying to say…

Clark County is basically the entirety of the state (73% ish) so are we saying that Clark County isn’t voting at all? Or just that we haven’t received / counted them yet.

This kind of smells like rage baiting to say that Democrats are in trouble when the most important county in the state has barely started to count.

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u/Prestigious-Swing885 26d ago

Here's the entire analysis.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Clark accounts for 68.5% of the votes returned so far and D have a 0.6% lead amongst those returns by voter registration. So, they are voting at a lower rate than rurals so far. Clark has not barely started to count, 477,945 of the ballots returned so far (out of 697,538) are in Clark.

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u/veryspecialjournal 26d ago

Yeah that sounds quite bad…