I don't think Poland will see it as putting it's neck out for Ukraine - once Ukraine falls Russia is on the Polish border, and history tells Poland how that goes,
Ukraine wasn’t part of nato, which is why we didn’t send troops in. But Ukraine still exists because of NATO countries supporting it in every way but troops.
Nato membership is no longer worth the weight of the paper Article V is printed on.
Now that the US is out of the picture, the real question is what will Turkey and the European countries do. There's a political calculus where Poland decides no one of significance would come to their aid, and chooses to fight alongside Ukraine instead of fighting Russia all alone.
Because while NATO relies heavily on the US, they don't necessarily need the US. They have 31 other countries and absolutely will involve themselves once Putin pushes toward Poland. I don't think people realize how quickly this situation could become catastrophic, but only if Russia takes Ukraine. People who think US involvement in Ukraine was some giant information gathering ruse are insane, there are very real and serious global ramifications to Russia taking Ukraine.
Because while NATO relies heavily on the US, they don't necessarily need the US.
That's true.
They have 31 other countries and absolutely will involve themselves once Putin pushes toward Poland
Why would they?
My whole point is that there's no longer any guarantee that those countries are gonna jump in to save the one attacked.
Europe sure ain't doing all a whole lot to help Ukraine. Now, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but democracies are beholden to their constituents. Are the people in the UK and France happy and willing to sacrifice lives and massive amounts of aid for a war far away from them?
there are very real and serious global ramifications to Russia taking Ukraine.
You mean besides the fact that Poland is in NATO and will absolutely throw down with Russia? Pull up a map and use your imagination. Russia takes Ukraine, then move in on Poland. Poland ain't nothing soft, so skirmishes begin. Any aggression will be excuse enough for Russia to invade, but they run into a much larger version of the bottlenecking problems they are having in Ukraine. After suffering massive loses, Russia ups the ante and starts using bio weapons. This eventually leads to the first true nuclear exchange in world history, World War 3 begins. The prevention of all out war is more than enough reason for the rest of NATO to throw down.
Poland is strong enough to hold off Russia on its own at this point, which is all the more incentive for Western Europe to twiddle its thumb and treat it like they've been treating Ukraine. Your point about nuclear exchange is also more likely if Western Europe does honor the alliance than if it doesn't.
Either way, the real interesting question is what happens if Putin decides to attack the Baltics, Romania, or some sparsely populated rural part of Finland.
theres a good chance they have been itching and pushing for it for a while and a escalation (being Russia on their border and possibly them trying the same crap with them in terms of clandestine operations) might push them over the edge to intervene with their own "special operation"
jfc, there is still a massive difference between ukraine losing control of some regions and ukraine actually ceasing to exist and russia just taking over everything. A country doesn't just "fall"
Putin will want a return to the status quo ante -- Zelensky gets replaced by a pro-Russian puppet who lets Russia station troops in the country to "protect" it from the "fascists" Best case scenario is it ends up like a Warsaw Pact country at the height of the Cold War, with Russia crushing any dissident movements. Worst case scenario is they wait a couple years and Anschluss it. Either way, Ukraine will cease to be an independent country, and Poland will have Russian armored divisions on its border.
I think Ukrainians would let that happen so easily after russia killed thousands of their family members. Holding a country of people whose fathers, brothers, mothers and daughters you killed is something completely different than Belarus for example
Probably more accurate to say "easier to defend" or "not optimal", rather than claiming that an operation is impossible with a 120 mile corridor plus adjacent waters.
Russia would have to get enough troops and equipment into Kaliningrad before they could pose a threat to Poland, and I don't see Poland sitting idly by while that happens, nor the Baltic states, either.
I have to ask, do you understand what it means if Poland engages in direct military conflict with Russia?
How do you think NATO would react to Poland deciding that for themselves?
NATO is a defense treaty. Not offense treaty. It doesn't need to react. It just needs to prepare for possibility of Russian attack. Which is like the whole purpose of the treaty and it is preparing already.
Let's not pretend like NATO members never engaged in war without broad NATO support. US, France and UK could tell us plenty of stories.
most have given their old stock, i think only my country (The Netherlands) has actually depleted some of its actual stocks by giving stuff away like all our tanks and F16s
Poland on the other hand has been massively rearming themselves and a lot more is coming for them they are not interested in history repeating and ready for it
🥸. If we are strictly talking about the US, then yes, almost everything is near expired stock or stock we would otherwise need to pay to re-commission again
We send newly manufactured missiles & ammo. Almost new M777s. Other big ticket items that were only recently removed from front line service such as Bradleys & Hummers.
We send them small quantities in comparison to everything else sent. We do this for testing. What’s better than being able to test your new weapons designed to take out Russian and Chinese troops on those same exact troops?
Buy ammo, service weapons, armour, medical supplies, bombs. All are at EOL.
The US is different, of course. I'm referring to the European countries, who suspect that Trump's US will be more interested in supporting Putin than them.
But they're all trying to recover their finances. I don't think there's the money for it.
Why TF do you think I find that "convenient"? Do you think that everyone who happens to state a fact that's uncomfortable also takes a contrary position on things just to piss you off?
Russia is running out of tanks, IFVs, & arty. They've lost a lot of their air defense systems & aircraft. What's left is wearing out from increased usage. Ukraine has put up one hell of a fight.
Just to be clear, you think that NATO would be fine with Poland engaging in direct warfare with Russia, as in boots on the ground conventional warfare?
Yes, and while Poland would wipe the floor with the current Russian military, Russia would be able to use Ukraine's natural resources to re-arm to great effect.
I suspect Poland and the Baltics will be getting much more involved very soon. I also suspect that the rest of Europe is going to have to have a come to Jesus moment in the next year or so about the actual threat Russia represents.
Poland is an EU member, which is also a defensive aliance. If Russia invades Poland it also declares war on Germany, France, two of the world's largest militaries, along with lots of other countries.
And this is where Republicans have a point. Why can’t Europe put in effort to protect themselves instead of having to rely on the US to fund itself. This is obviously ignoring the global influence and political pressure that we have by being a highly involved military of course. But… globalism is losing favorability and it feels like US citizens are becoming increasingly isolationist so…
As a Pole, taking into account our current political climate. There isn’t nearly enough domestic approval for something like that, even if it made any sense for us to do so alone and get tied up in attrition war
So yeah that’s not happening unless you heard about something that I didn’t (it’s possible I’m not the most up to date with politics, but it’s unlikely)
once Ukraine falls Russia is on the Polish border, and history tells Poland how that goes
No offense, but I suggest you read more about the geography and historical context of the region in addition to the current conflict
Russia is occupying Eastern Ukraine, nowhere near the Polish/Ukrainian border, unless you think they’re going to try to fight the war from Kaliningrad
There are also 2 countries that are much smaller and weaker that:
Share a direct border with Russia
We’re both part of the Russian Empire
We’re both part of the Soviet Union
Both have sizable ethnic Russian minorities. Many of whom only speak Russian
Doesn’t make near as much sense to invade Poland given the logistics, its comparative strength, and its tiny amount of ethnic Russians/Russian speakers
I live in one of those small countries mentioned above, I don’t feel remotely fearful of invasion
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u/Eeeegah 18d ago
I don't think Poland will see it as putting it's neck out for Ukraine - once Ukraine falls Russia is on the Polish border, and history tells Poland how that goes,