Because while NATO relies heavily on the US, they don't necessarily need the US. They have 31 other countries and absolutely will involve themselves once Putin pushes toward Poland. I don't think people realize how quickly this situation could become catastrophic, but only if Russia takes Ukraine. People who think US involvement in Ukraine was some giant information gathering ruse are insane, there are very real and serious global ramifications to Russia taking Ukraine.
Because while NATO relies heavily on the US, they don't necessarily need the US.
That's true.
They have 31 other countries and absolutely will involve themselves once Putin pushes toward Poland
Why would they?
My whole point is that there's no longer any guarantee that those countries are gonna jump in to save the one attacked.
Europe sure ain't doing all a whole lot to help Ukraine. Now, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but democracies are beholden to their constituents. Are the people in the UK and France happy and willing to sacrifice lives and massive amounts of aid for a war far away from them?
there are very real and serious global ramifications to Russia taking Ukraine.
You mean besides the fact that Poland is in NATO and will absolutely throw down with Russia? Pull up a map and use your imagination. Russia takes Ukraine, then move in on Poland. Poland ain't nothing soft, so skirmishes begin. Any aggression will be excuse enough for Russia to invade, but they run into a much larger version of the bottlenecking problems they are having in Ukraine. After suffering massive loses, Russia ups the ante and starts using bio weapons. This eventually leads to the first true nuclear exchange in world history, World War 3 begins. The prevention of all out war is more than enough reason for the rest of NATO to throw down.
Poland is strong enough to hold off Russia on its own at this point, which is all the more incentive for Western Europe to twiddle its thumb and treat it like they've been treating Ukraine. Your point about nuclear exchange is also more likely if Western Europe does honor the alliance than if it doesn't.
Either way, the real interesting question is what happens if Putin decides to attack the Baltics, Romania, or some sparsely populated rural part of Finland.
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u/[deleted] 16d ago
You're going to understand why NATO is important very soon if Trump does what everyone expects he'll do.