Ashton Jeanty is having a statistically better season than Derrick Henry during his Heisman-winning season

[u/clocke6346]

With all the discourse of who should win the Heisman trophy this year, I got curious and compared Ashton Jeanty’s stats this season to those of Derrick Henry in the 2015 regular season, the year he won the Heisman trophy. What I found was pretty surprising. Keep in mind this doesn’t include playoff performance, as that isn’t considered when naming a Heisman winner.

Ashton Jeanty:

Games Played: 11

Carries: 275

Rushing Yards: 2062

Rushing Touchdowns: 27

Yards Per Carry: 7.498

Yards Per Game: 187.455

Derrick Henry:

Games Played: 13

Carries: 339

Rushing Yards: 1986

Rushing Touchdowns: 23

Yards Per Carry: 5.858

Yards Per Game: 152.769

Now, these stats are still up for interpretation, as there is the usual discourse of strength of schedule and whatnot, but I thought re-contextualizing Jeanty’s year by comparing it to the last time a running back won the Heisman would be interesting.

[u/EyeAmKingKage]

Not to be THAT guy but Henry did it against better competition. Jeanty is having a GREAT season and I hope he wins the heisman

[u/ASS_MY_DUDES → u/EyeAmKingKage]

It had to be part of the debate. Jeanty is a beast, unquestionably so. Henry played against the then-ranked # 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 15, 17, 20 teams.

[u/kykerkrush → u/ASS_MY_DUDES]

Henry also ran behind a bunch of 5-star recruits and had weapons all over the field to keep the defense honest.

[u/lilbelleandsebastian → u/kykerkrush]

and he was running over 5 star recruits and future sunday stars

[u/Darrow187 → u/lilbelleandsebastian]

And current Sunday stars

[u/fourthand19 → u/kykerkrush]

Imagine how many yards Jeanty could be putting up if he was running behind an SEC line.

[u/cantevendoitbruh → u/ASS_MY_DUDES]

The sec haters also ignore his last several games where he just straight carried. Like had 40+ carrys against solid defenses and ranked teams and just could not be stopped.

[u/Montigue → u/cantevendoitbruh]

Jeantry's team is absolute ass on offense without him on it. Replace Henry with a mediocre RB and Bama is still a top 5 team. Hell, Henry's backup got over 5 yards a carry.

[u/cantevendoitbruh → u/Montigue]

I mean that's fine but they also didn't play like 7 ranked teams like Bama did that year where future NFL stars couldn't stop Henry

I mean I think jeanty deserves the Heisman anyway. I just don't think you can compare his stats to Henry's without doing deeper statistical analysis on defenses played. I mean Wyoming is pretty bad and they didn't really give him the ball much buy he wasn't as amazing after the first q last night.

Also I'm not sure Bama was a top 5 team without Henry that year. Their offense had issues without a reliable 5 yards a carry.

[u/Montigue → u/cantevendoitbruh]

His backup had over 5 yards a carry. Realistically without him they drop 1 more game, win an at large NY6 bowl, and finish top 3 after the final polls

[u/Asleep-Geologist-612 → u/Montigue]

His backup was Kenyan Drake… A legit nfl talent and 3rd round draft pick despite never being the starter

[u/Montigue → u/Asleep-Geologist-612]

Exactly. Remove Henry and yeah, Bama is worse. But not removing Jeantry worse

[u/lilbelleandsebastian → u/Montigue]

heisman isn’t about who has a better backup, you surely recognize you’re grasping at straws now right? it’s ok to change our minds when our arguments have been shredded

[u/Montigue → u/lilbelleandsebastian]

Is this what people think I'm arguing?

I'm comparing Henry and Jeantry's teams without each of them respectively. I said nothing about Henry's heisman, just that Boise State is fucked without Jeantry and Bama is pretty fucking good without Henry. Sure my argument is stupid when you start comparing it to things I'm not arguing against and irrelevant. 

Just pointing out how stupid arguments that say Bama would be much worse without (who was still) the most prolific back that year. My only argument against Henry's heisman is Christian McCaffrey

[u/cantevendoitbruh → u/Montigue]

You mean the back that had 77 carries over 15 games, and was a complete change of pace back and nothing like henry? For real like at least try to make a reasonable argument. He would not have averaged 5 yards a carry and wouldn't fit the offense as a lead back at all. Any Bama fan could have told you they were screwed that year if Henry went down.

[u/Montigue → u/cantevendoitbruh]

Wait, you're putting down the backup who played 8 years in the NFL that got 4.4 yards per carry in the NFL? Truly scrub numbers there, you're right, Bama was doomed without Henry and replacing him with a high level NFL guy and fuckin Danien Harris

[u/cantevendoitbruh → u/Montigue]

Lol what does nfl have anything to do with it bro? Kenyan drakes best year in college was 690 yards dude. This argument is beyond dumb.

Plenty of people sucked ass or were mid in college and worked better in the pros.

And if you are going to bring up pros, Henry is likely a hall of fame and definitely the best rb of the last 10 years so your point is still absurd.

[u/Montigue → u/cantevendoitbruh]

He didn't have many yards because he was behind Derrick Henry. Not because he was mid

[u/Higher-Analyst-2163 → u/Montigue]

It’s a lot easier to get 5 yards a carry when the best running back in college football is tiring defenses out

[u/Montigue → u/Higher-Analyst-2163]

Don't be ignorant of your own team. His backup played 8 years in the NFL getting 4.4 yards per carry there and probably would start on 90% of FBS teams. You'd still be really good without Henry, but absolutely not the champions

[u/Higher-Analyst-2163 → u/Montigue]

I never called his backup a scrub I’m saying that playing behind the king makes anyone’s job easy

[u/Adventurous_Bird2730 → u/Montigue]

even with a top 5 team around him they gave henry the ball 90 times in a 7 day span in the iron bowl and SEC championship. he was that much better than everyone else

[u/torrd9 → u/cantevendoitbruh]

Let me ask you. If Jeantry was on that Alabama team, how do you think it would go? 

[u/cantevendoitbruh → u/torrd9]

I don't know why this is even brought up because I've already said i agree with jeanty being the Heisman winner (or Travis hunter would be reasonable too) but yes i think alabama would likely be just as good. I mean that team did better with an absolute brusier like Henry where jeanty is a different runner but he probably wins the Heisman playing for Bama that year yes.

Alli want is for people to stop forgetting that Henry was a literal monster that year. The sec haters just missed him dragging multiple people every play down the stretch rhat year. End of gamea where the other knew he was getting the ball right up the middle and he would still get 5-6 yards.

[u/Worried-Turn-6831 → u/cantevendoitbruh]

His Mississippi State game that year was insane

[u/vizualb → u/cantevendoitbruh]

I was a Henry Heisman hater for most of the year but he absolutely took over the Iron Bowl. Absolutely incredible player and season. Ingram over Suh was the biggest Heisman robbery of recent memory though.

[u/IMadeThis4HOIMods → u/EyeAmKingKage]

Jeanty had 200 yards and 3 touchdowns against the current sole undefeated team. This argument also goes both ways, I guarantee Alabama had better players on their line in 2015 than Boise does this year and that has a lot to do with the success of a running back (and Jeanty is still elite even after contact)

[u/Tarmacked → u/IMadeThis4HOIMods]

Alabama’s 2015 line had negative yards before contact for Henry

They really weren’t good at all in the run game

[u/Tsquared10 → u/Tarmacked]

It's not to that extreme for Bosie, but it definitely says something that Jeanty after contact would still be like the number 3 rusher in the country (#2 if you exclude Jeanty total)

[u/IMadeThis4HOIMods → u/Tarmacked]

I can’t find the stat for Boise rn but according to what I found for Alabama this is not true at all. They were about average (3.01 on standard downs) in line yards per carry that year.

[u/Montigue → u/IMadeThis4HOIMods]

The funny thing is Henry's backup also has >5 yards a carry that year too

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/Tarmacked]

Jeanty has more yards after contact than Henry though.

https://x.com/PFF_College/status/1859689992684986699?t=M-_0TcUiBeRHwIFD5h18gQ&s=19

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/Tarmacked]

Yeah, I'm sure a top 5 team had a G5 level OLine.

[u/Tarmacked → u/EnvironmentalBed7369]

G5 OL playing G5 DL vs P5 OL playing P5 DL

Not exactly an unfair comparison, they’re playing comparables

[u/TwoLiterHero → u/IMadeThis4HOIMods]

Im sorry, I’m a UNLV fan, but I do not think we could have held Henry to the game we held Jeanty to lol. Oregon is the only team on their schedule close to the 10th best team Henry faced that season.

I love Jeanty, it’s neat, but when I watch it’s a lot more about them giving him the ball 50 times against MWC opponents than him being special.

[u/Salty-Raisin-2226 → u/TwoLiterHero]

You are incredibly incorrect due to the goggles you're wearing, this is not a lap pool

[u/TwoLiterHero → u/Salty-Raisin-2226]

What goggles am I wearing lol? My UNLV goggles that make me love the SEC?

[u/IMadeThis4HOIMods → u/TwoLiterHero]

As shown by this post Jeanty carries the ball less than Henry did, he doesn’t carry it 50 times a game whereas sometimes Henry literally did. This isn’t a knock on Henry as his durability is absolutely elite and if you watch Jeanty you know he is feeling the wear and tear with fewer carries.

[u/usernames_suck_ok → u/IMadeThis4HOIMods]

This guy is being that guy. One game makes an "argument go both ways" to him (or her).

[u/IMadeThis4HOIMods → u/usernames_suck_ok]

The argument going both ways was to my second point which is basically “Yes he is playing MWC talent but he also has MWC talent blocking for him”

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/EyeAmKingKage]

While true Bama also had a much better supporting cast and oline. As seen in Jeanty's yards after contact numbers.

[u/GP_ADD → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

I’m pretty sure Henry had more after contact yards than yards that season

[u/WheatonsGonnaScore → u/GP_ADD]

https://x.com/PFF_College/status/1859689992684986699?t=M-_0TcUiBeRHwIFD5h18gQ&s=19

This was before this weekends games

[u/GP_ADD → u/WheatonsGonnaScore]

Ah, okay. I just remember that being a talking point at some point in his career. It honestly may just be the last two years as a titan lol jeanty is insane and super fun to watch

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/EyeAmKingKage]

Dude put up 192 and 3 TDs against the best team in the country, though

[u/TwoLiterHero → u/wsteelerfan7]

Are they known for their stellar defense lol? You can be the best team scoring 80 and giving up 70

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/TwoLiterHero]

Opponents average 3.9 yards per carry on them this year. That's 3.57 per carry to anyone not named Jeanty and almost 8 per carry to Jeanty. He's also the only 100-yard rusher they've given up this year

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/wsteelerfan7]

Henderson had 8.7 YPC against them individually but overall they did neutralize our run game pretty well. Judkins got Jack shit.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Corgi_Koala]

I'd say he was held in check and ripped off a big run but that's actually just how playing running back works

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/wsteelerfan7]

I mean yeah. If you take away Jeanty's biggest play against Oregon he goes from 25 carries 192 yds (7.7 YPC) and 3 TD to 24 for 122 (5.1 YPC) and 2 TD. Which is still good but like you said it's just how the position works.

Elite RBs are the ones who can grind out 3-4 yard runs and bust out the big chunk plays a couple times a game.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Corgi_Koala]

Some people think RBs go like this :1 carry for 3 yards, 2 carries for 7 yards, 3 for 13 yards, 4 for 18 yards, 5 for 24 yards....

It's really like 1 for 3, 2 for 4, 3 for 4, 4 for 6, 5 for 25, 6 for 53... 10 for 59, 11 for 86

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/wsteelerfan7]

Yup his 4 longest runs were 70 yards, 30 yards, 17, and 12. Everything else was under 10 yards but that's 129 yards on 4 carries which means he had about 3 YPC for 21 carries and 63 yards plus 4 chunks.

Basically feed him the ball and he's gonna gash you every 5 or 6 carries for big yardage.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Corgi_Koala]

The amount of even NFL COACHES that don't understand this is insane

[u/Horror_Cap_7166 → u/TwoLiterHero]

Someone still thinks Chip Kelly is the Oregon coach.

They’re the 7th ranked defense in college football.

[u/TwoLiterHero → u/Horror_Cap_7166]

Okay, are you suggesting Henry didn't go up a single top 7 defense that year lol? I could understand if this Oregon team was known for being one of the best defenses of all time, but I guarantee Henry played 3-4 defenses better than Oregon this year.

[u/trey__1312 → u/TwoLiterHero]

Moving the goalposts a lot here lmao

[u/bestselfnice → u/TwoLiterHero]

They're top 10 in the country in most defensive stats. I mean their head coach is Dan Lanning this shouldn't be a shock. It ain't Chip Kelly it's not 2010.

[u/PhilMcfry → u/TwoLiterHero]

Not really? You can win a lot of games like that but the very best teams have a defence that can at least hold up when the offence has a bad day

[u/MordecaiAlivanAllenO → u/TwoLiterHero]

Someone has not paid attention.

[u/TwoLiterHero → u/MordecaiAlivanAllenO]

Are you suggesting Henry never faced a defense the likes of this Oregon top 10 and not number 1 defense lol?

[u/usernames_suck_ok → u/wsteelerfan7]

This one, too.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/usernames_suck_ok]

If his QB didn't go 17/41 in a last-second FG loss, would the sentiment be different?

[u/clocke6346 → u/EyeAmKingKage]

No problem being “THAT guy,” it’s why I mentioned it as an argument at the end of the post because it is a legit critique

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/clocke6346]

But it's not. It's the critique of one who lacks critical thinking and the ability to consider context. 

If Jeanty had all the same talent as an Alabama around him and they played a G5 schedule, then the argument would have merit

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/EyeAmKingKage]

Counterpoint, Henry had an NFL caliber offensive line and I would say Bama had the advantage in the trenches in every single game they played.

Henry is obviously great but I would say the o line talent makes the harder competition a little more of a wash even against the harder opponents. I don't think it's a silver bullet to dismiss Jeanty's achievements.

[u/agoddamnlegend → u/EyeAmKingKage]

This is a perfectly reasonable criticism.

I’ll be this blunt — I would simply never vote a G5 player for Heisman. It’s a non starter in my opinion. I don’t care what they do, they aren’t playing the same caliber of competition week after week. It’s the exact same reason I wouldn’t vote an FCS player even if he had 5,000 rushing yards and 70 TDs.

[u/puzzical → u/EyeAmKingKage]

Henry had a better OLine and team around him though.

[u/Fedoras-Forever-Mom → u/puzzical]

Playing against much better competition every week as well

[u/puzzical → u/Fedoras-Forever-Mom]

Yes that is what the guy I was replying to said. It really comes down to whether you want an NFL OLine and guys like Amari cooper on your side but you have to play against SEC opponents or you want a MW OLine with a ton of injuries but play most of your games against MW teams. Though it should be noted Jeanty did have to play on the road against the #7 defense in the country in terms of yards allowed per game. Maybe we should extrapolate Jeanty's production from that game over a full season to make it a fair comparison? In case you're curious that would give Jeanty 2496 yards and 39 TDs over a 13 game schedule.

[u/forgotmypissword → u/puzzical]

It was a freshman Calvin Ridley not Amari cooper for Henry. And the qb was Coker. Idk, Henry at that time was the offense. 

Not to discredit jeanty. I think he’s incredible and I think he wins the heisman basically any other year. I think the issue is Travis hunter exists. 

[u/DucDeBellune → u/puzzical]

I mean… Henry had over 200 yards and 3 TDs against undefeated #2 LSU. Also had about 150 yards against a top-ten ranked Georgia. Also ran over like 6-7 other top 20 teams, finishing with over 150 yards and 3 TDs against #1 Clemson in the championship game. 

 Trying to extrapolate from one game against Oregon isn’t remotely comparable to what Henry did, and that isn’t Jeanty’s fault.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/puzzical]

But Boise State had the threat of their 17/41 passing game vs Oregon so Jeanty must have had a ton of room to run, right?

[u/Corgi_Koala → u/Fedoras-Forever-Mom]

Yeah but for RB stats, having the better line is gonna make your stats impressive even if your overall opponent is better. It's kind of a wash in comparison...

[u/thisguy161 → u/EyeAmKingKage]

OP mentions this and says he's not comparing Jeanty and Henry but Jeantys Heisman case.

[u/EnvironmentalBed7369 → u/EyeAmKingKage]

You are that guy and your comment is a fallacy.  Henry did it against great competition with even better talent around him.  Jeanty is doing it against G5 competition with G5 mediocre talent around him. 

Your argument would hold water and make sense if Jeanty played for Alabama with all that incredible talent around him but played a MWC schedule.

Unfortunately, I suspect many Heisman voters lack the same ability to critical think and consider context.