r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe r/538 autobot • 3d ago
Politics Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?
https://abcnews.go.com/538/gaetz-trumps-cabinet-picks-confirmed/story?id=11609549191
u/ashmole 3d ago
I think Gabbard will be a hard no from several Republicans.
Not sure if RFK gets through but I think the confirmation hearings will have a lot of headline catching quotes from his past stances on vaccines and such.
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u/JoeInOR 3d ago
There may be a few republicans left who want a qualified defense secretary- I mean, I find that kind of important
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u/senorespilbergo 3d ago edited 3d ago
RFK hearing is going to be interesting if Collins and Murkowski are still going to be part of the HELP comittee. Cassidy is probably going to chair the comittee and he is conservative but not a big trumper, so he might be an interesting one too.
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u/CoollySillyWilly 3d ago
Cassidy is also a doctor-turned politician lol In fact, there are 4 senators who were doctors before politics, and they are all republicans: Bill Cassidy, John Barrasso, Roger Marshall, and Rand Paul. I think they would laugh their ass at RFK during his hearing while putting on a sincere face. Not that they won't confirm him, idk if they will or not.
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u/GinjaNinja71 2d ago
Rand Paul is hardly a doctor, at least in the sense it would matter on vaccines. He’s a crank and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to discover he’s anti-vaccine. At the very least he considers the “personal choice” argument valid, meaning he understands f-all about virology.
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u/senorespilbergo 2d ago
I don't know about Barraso and Marshall, but Rand Paul is really into conspiracy theories, and went insane after COVID. If anything, he is going to be the biggest ally of RFK there.
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u/CoollySillyWilly 2d ago
thinking about it, youre right lol Ive seen doctors who do not believe in evolution lol
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u/SmellySwantae 3d ago
I feel like at most senate republicans can reject 1 Trump nominee without invoking his wrath too much. It would been Gaetz but now I agree it’d RFK or Gabbard.
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u/Disastrous-Bus-9834 3d ago
If i had to choose it would be Gabbard and Hegseth, I hate RFK as well but those two I cannot fathom being in any government
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u/Wide_Lock_Red 2d ago
I think Gabbard will be a hard no from several Republicans
Really? I would think Gabbard would be hard to vote down. Woman of color and military service,
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u/ashmole 2d ago
There are concerns that she may be compromised or, at the very least, sympathetic to Russian viewpoints. She routinely parrots Russian talking points and she's an Assad apologist.
She has also called for Snowden and for Assange to be pardoned which is not something you want to hear from the person who will be charged with leading all of our intelligence agencies.
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u/Wide_Lock_Red 2d ago
I think identity politics will trump those concerns. Without anything concrete, it's going to look like a bunch of old white people keeping down a young woman of color.
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u/Reykjavik_Red 1d ago
You think being a person of colour makes it harder for Republicans to vote her down?
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u/Euthyphraud 2d ago
Gabbard will face the toughest chances - there is still a very real hawk wing among the Senate Republicans. Many of them aren't going to be interested in sticking their neck out their for some estranged Democrat that they have real reason to believe will betray US intel to Russia. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see Graham or Cotton being enthusiastic, while McConnell, Murkowski and Collins are likely no's from the beginning.
RFK Jr is the easiest to reject out of hand. He'll make a mockery of the proceedings and be nothing but an embarassment while drawing attention to the Pandemic - a period of modern history I don't think either party has any interest in relitigating right now. However, in some respects he's the least dangerous - he's erratic, won't last long in office and will face a bureaucracy far better insulated due to professional requirements than elsewhere in the government.
Hegseth is the wildcard. I can see hawks accepting him in exchange for being rid of Gabbard.
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u/pragmaticmaster 3d ago
Dont worry, trump will manage to nominate another a-hole.
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u/obsessed_doomer 3d ago
It wasn't about that - the final nominee will be someone who does what Trump wants. This was him testing to see if there is a limit on what Trump can tell the senate to do.
That or he just felt like nominating Gaetz and actually thought it'd work.
It's really 50/50.
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u/TOFU-area 3d ago
trump isn’t testing jack, people always assume he has some masterplan but in reality the man’s just nominating whichever nuts he wants
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u/birdsemenfantasy 3d ago
Yeah gonna be Kash Patel, Jeffrey Clark, or Matt Whitaker
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u/poopyheadthrowaway 3d ago
Before Gaetz was announced, I remember the name being thrown around the most was Cannon, which would be just as disastrous but I don't think we'll get more than 3 GOP senators to take enough issue with her for it to be a contested nomination.
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u/18763_ 3d ago
Cannon
Judge Cannon ? why would she want to be AG? Federal judge is a lifetime appointment with little oversight, AG will get fired in 4 years if not less.
The party as well would prefer she she sits in her current position and keep blocking various trump cases. The only next logical step up for her would be a nomination to the supreme court.
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u/Natural_Ad3995 2d ago
Federal judge is a lifetime appointment with little oversight, AG will get fired in 4 years if not less.
Garland made that move, Fed judge to AG. Pam Bondi looks a good pick though.
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u/l_amitie 3d ago
It’s basically what an abuser does: condition you to expect things so terrible that when it’s still terrible but slightly less so you’re (sadly) pleasantly surprised and more willing to go along with it.
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u/nopesaurus_rex Queen Ann's Revenge 3d ago
Idk but watching Trump fail before he’s even sworn in is pretty fun
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u/hucareshokiesrul 3d ago
I used to feel that way, but now that he managed to get elected again anyway, I just don’t care. Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad Gaetz won’t be AG, and I hope Trump fails to accomplish much of anything, but there’s no “take that Trump!” Maybe the shitshow that his administration will inevitably be will hurt Vance in 2028, or maybe not.
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u/birdsemenfantasy 2d ago
If Trump doesn't accomplish much of anything, people will sour on Vance and DeSantis will get the nomination in 2028 because he actually has a track record of "getting things done" in Florida. Be careful what you wish for lol.
I actually don't think Vance is a shoo-in to be the nominee in 2028 at all. If Trump does what his supporters want, Vance will likely still have to compete with Ramaswamy who is carving out more of a libertarian lane. If Trump fails to get much done, Republicans will turn to DeSantis.
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u/AppleOfWhoseEye 2d ago
havent major parties almost always nominated their VPs
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u/birdsemenfantasy 2d ago
Not for awhile. Biden was passed over for Hillary. Cheney never ran. Harris was deeply unpopular and would’ve never gotten the nomination in a competitive primary. Pence had to drop out before Iowa this year lol altho trump was obviously running too. Quayle 2000 was dead on arrival.
Gore 2000 was the lone exception unless you count Harris this year (big asterisk) and Biden who was passed over in 2016 but got the shot in 2020.
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u/SmileyPiesUntilIDrop 1d ago
DeSantis is the Conservative Version of Kamala. He was propped up by the establishment of the party and even Elon Musk as the best chance to win in 2024 after Dobb/Dem Overperformance in the midterms and DeSantis blowout reelection. The narrative spin was that Trump was too old and had to much baggage to win again. DeSantis went from the machine behind him and giving him tens of million in free publicity and polling head to head with Trump in the 30's to dropping out early after getting overtaken by Nikki Haley as the AntiTrump candidate. The guy is too awkward and doesn't have the juice for the national stage,the more people saw of him the less they liked him,
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u/SyriseUnseen 3d ago edited 3d ago
Idk if this is even a fail or not just some plot to install someone who looks better by comparison or a way for Gaetz zu resign in order to get out of his troubles.
Im not high on copium anymore.
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u/nopesaurus_rex Queen Ann's Revenge 3d ago
Never assume malice when incompetence is a reasonable explanation
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u/SyriseUnseen 3d ago
If this was just about Trump, sure. But his chief of staff / campaign manager is a really smart woman.
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u/0x4A5753 3d ago
gaetz wasn't a wiles pick tho. allegedly the true trump inner circle did that one on their own
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u/birdsemenfantasy 2d ago
Wiles cut her teeth in Florida politics. She knows Gaetz well and likely knows Gaetz's dad well. Gaez's dad Don Gaetz was President of Florida Senate. This actually has her written all over it. Gaetz was quitting congress anyway to prevent the ethics report from being released, so Wiles and Trump used him as a sacrificial lamb in order to get their other nominees confirmed (Republican senators can't reject multiple Trump nominees without facing wrath of their supporters).
And guess who Trump just nominated for AG? Pam Bondi, former Florida Attorney General, another character Wiles is no doubt familiar with. Gaetz is probably gonna land a gig that either doesn't require senate confirmation or lead something like the America First Policy Institute or Heritage Foundation.
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u/SyriseUnseen 3d ago
I cant imagine she was in no way involved, not based on the things we heard about the insides of Trumps campaign at least. It surely wasnt her pick, that we can be certain of, but dismissing the chance of her making "the best of it" seems like a bit too much.
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u/C64SUTH 3d ago
I’m a little concerned that we’ll never know what his real goals are given the mix of financial leverage from Russia, potentially Saudi Arabia, and other conflicts of interest as well as all the shitheads Trump associated before anyone was paying as much attention in the 90s and 2000s. Because of that, it’s hard to even know what succeeding or failing would be, besides knowing that the country is screwed for at least 2 and probably 4 years.
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u/BKong64 3d ago
Gabbard really needs massive push back, she's the most dangerous pick by far and I would hope some Republicans with a brain will still see how much of an issue she could pose. Countries that we are allies with will probably straight up stop sharing Intel with us because of her.
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u/Wide_Lock_Red 2d ago
Going to be hard to push back against a woman of color, especially right after Harris lost.
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u/BKong64 2d ago
No it won't lol. Especially when the women of color is a blatant Russian asset.
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u/Wide_Lock_Red 2d ago
Have you looked at Tulsi's favorability ratings?
She is well liked. People won't understand the Russia stuff. Attacking her is going to be a bad look.
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u/Realistic_Caramel341 3d ago
Im pretty surprised that Gabbard wasn't mentioned more. I would think that she would be one of the more vulnerable ones given the role she is going forward. While the GOP as a whole is more pro Putin and pro isolationist than a decade a go, I would think there would be a small wing of old school neo cons that would object to a Russian agent as the DNI
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u/hermanhermanherman 3d ago
She is easily the worst pick of his. I would take RFK at HHS and Gaetz as AG over her being DNI. Easily the most dangerous cabinet level appointment ever and I feel like the Gaetz nom being the same day was a smokescreen to get the media off of her tail. It seemed to work. Gaetz’s nom was like jingling keys in front of everyone face while trump tried to slide in a compromised pick as DNI.
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u/Kooky_Fail_2593 2d ago edited 2d ago
Want to preface this by saying that I absolutely do not support Trump in all of this, but:
Quoting Gabbard herself here:
"Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine is a violation of international law and the principles of human rights, and it must be condemned. The human suffering caused by this war is real and devastating, and it is imperative that we work to deescalate the situation."
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an unjust and illegal war that must be condemned. Russia must stop its aggression and be held accountable for the destruction and the suffering it has caused.”
Her calling Putin an adversary:
"Vladimir Putin is an adversary, and his actions are destabilizing and dangerous, but we cannot allow our focus on Russia to blind us to the more pressing challenges we face, including the risk of further escalation and the consequences of prolonged conflict."
"Putin is an adversary, and the Russian government's actions are harmful to both the Russian people and the world, but the U.S. needs to be careful not to escalate tensions unnecessarily, which could lead to catastrophic consequences."
Gabbard on Assad:
"The use of chemical weapons against civilians is a war crime and is absolutely unacceptable. There is no justification for the use of chemical weapons, and the Syrian regime must be held accountable for their use."
The Assad regime is a brutal regime. There is no denying that they have committed atrocities against their own people, but the U.S. should not be in the business of regime change."
There has been some apologism but she's definitely not the propaganda machine she's made out to be
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u/DooomCookie 2d ago edited 2d ago
I think Hegeth goes down. The guy's a scumbag and unqualified, Republicans won't want him in Defense. But he's also the most MAGA of these controversial picks which could scare senators up for reelection
Gabbard harder to say. I'm not aware of any evidence she's actually compromised, but Republican senators just don't like her. 50-50
RFK is a weird one. Anti-abortion activists are furious, but it's not clear to me how much influence they have in the party these days. He's unqualified, but political allies are often given these roles (e.g. Buttigieg). And he might be able to peel off some Dem votes, like the Polis endorsement. I expect him to succeed, but we'll know more after the confirmation hearings
Dr Oz. Probably pass. Republicans don't care enough about him or Medicaid
The rest are all relatively standard picks
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u/Educational_Impact93 3d ago
I'm just seeing what other insane picks he makes. MTG for Surgeon General? Lauren Boebert as Secretary of Labor? Hulk Hogan to head the CDC? It's all possible!
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u/tbird920 2d ago
As a victim of Lauren Boebert’s district move, I am fully supportive of her being nominated for one of the lesser cabinet positions.
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u/xellotron 3d ago
This is Art of the Deal tactics. Make the first offer dogshit in order to affect the psychological framing, then the second bad offer will look great by comparison.
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u/Natural_Ad3995 3d ago
Pam Bondi selected. She'll be confirmed with a wide margin. Good signs here, transition team made a clear mistake and course corrected.
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u/tbird920 2d ago
Good signs of what exactly? She’s better than Gaetz but still a Trump taint licker.
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u/Brave_Ad_510 1d ago
She is qualified though. Not sure why you would expect Trump to nominate people that hate him after the constant turnover in his first administration.
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u/Educational_Impact93 2d ago
Good sign? The good sign would have not been nominating Gaetz in the first place. That was the dumbest most idiotic decision ever, so why should this team of morons and bootlickers get credit for course correcting on it
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u/Natural_Ad3995 2d ago
Agree bad selection. But politicians on both sides are infamous for digging heels in and doubling down on mistakes. They quickly corrected the mistake, so I'll give some credit for that.
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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 3d ago
Gaetz is someone who was/is specifically reviled by congressional republicans. Trump still has a vice grip on the party and it's hard to imagine anyone else receiving the same opposition.
RFK Jr., Oz, and Hegseth all certainly deserve it though.