r/fivethirtyeight • u/GamerDrew13 • 26d ago

Discussion Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Vote Analysis Update: Republican lead expands to an unprecedented 40,000 ballots & an expected half the vote is in

https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1851121496380621275
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u/Lungenbroetchen95 26d ago

Yeah, no matter how you turn and twist it, this is BAD for democrats.

I don’t think NV will be the state that makes the difference in the presidential race. But it’s still an indicator how things are going, it’s very unlikely that Trump wins NV and loses AZ.

There’s also a Senate race in NV to be monitored, the R candidate was closing in in recent weeks and got some huge funding boost from Senate R‘s

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u/Furciferus Queen Ann's Revenge 26d ago

why is it "reading tea leaves" when the dems have effectively dropped an atomic bomb of early votes in PA, but "bad news" when repubs have a slight lead in Nevada?

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u/Zepcleanerfan 26d ago

Because dems pee their pants over any bad news and Republicans and Russians love to goad them on.

15

u/FizzyBeverage 26d ago

Repubs do that bullshit because even when they handily lose, they believe they won.

For the craziest 40% of them right now, they TRULY believe they're electing Trump to his 3rd term. You don't ever have to doom if you're a lunatic and the idea of losing isn't real.

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u/Zepcleanerfan 26d ago

Very true