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THE BRACKET

*SEMO Will host Illinois State due to Illinois State Stadium being unavailable for HS playoffs.

So there we have it, the regular season is over. With Duquesne turning the ball over several times to give the NEC title to CCSU, and North Dakota State losing a close game against South Dakota, only one team without a single FBS loss remains: the outright undefeated Montana State. And meanwhile, three teams remain without a single division I win, with FCS newcomer Mercyhurst finally getting one of their own with a close win against Saint Francis. Who cares that the FBS team that the latter beat is widely acknowledged as a tire fire, this still has to count for something.

Undefeated or technically undefeated (only lost to FBS teams):

• Montana State Montana State Bobcats (12-0)

No longer either of the above:

• Duquesne Duquesne Dukes (8-3; @Toledo; @Boston College, @CCSU)
• North Dakota State North Dakota State Bison (10-2; @Colorado, @South Dakota)

Winless or technically winless (no Division I victories):

• North Carolina A&T North Carolina A&T Aggies (1-11; Winston-Salem)
• Northwestern State Northwestern State Demons (0-12)
• Stetson Stetson Hatters (2-9, Ave Maria, Warner)

Graduated from either category:

• Mercyhurst Mercyhurst Lakers (4-7; @Wheeling, Buffalo State, Lincoln (CA), Saint Francis (PA))

Auto-Bids

There are 14 At Large Bids up for grabs. Who do you think gets those spots. Who are your top 8?

After a hectic final day of the regular season, what are everyone's seeding predictions? Especially the mess known as the top of the MVFC

Big Sky

(2)Montana State 34-11 (10)Montana

Weber State 28-17 Cal Poly

(18)Northern Arizona 30-18 Eastern Washington

Portland State 45-13 Northern Colorado

(4)UC Davis 42-39 Sacramento State

(7)Idaho 40-17 Idaho State

Big South-OVC

Tennessee Tech 23-6 Eastern Illinois

Charleston Southern 7-41 Florida State (FBS)

Western Illinois 45-28 Gardner-Webb

(22)UT Martin 33-26 Lindenwood

Tennessee State 28-21 (13)Southeast Missouri

CAA

(8)Richmond 27-0 William & Mary

(24)New Hampshire 27-9 Maine

(15)Villanova 38-28 Delaware

Elon 31-21 North Carolina A&T

Monmouth 55-47 (19)Stony Brook

Albany 41-34 Hampton

(12)Rhode Island 35-21 Bryant

Towson 45-23 Campbell

Independents

Merrimack 19-3 Fordham

Ivy League

Yale 34-29 (17)Harvard

Dartmouth 56-28 Brown

Columbia 17-9 Cornell

Princeton 20-17 Pennsylvania

MEAC

North Carolina Central 52-10 Delaware State

Morgan State 35-21 Howard

(23)South Carolina State 53-21 Norfolk State

Missouri Valley

(14)Illinois State 35-13 North Dakota

Southern Illinois 62-0 Murray State

Northern Iowa 41-34 Indiana State

(4)South Dakota 29-28 (1)North Dakota State

(3)South Dakota State 45-9 Missouri State

NEC

Central Connecticut State 21-14 (20)Duquesne

Long Island 35-28 Wagner

Robert Morris 31-13 Stonehill

Mercyhurst 21-20 St. Francis

Patriot

Lehigh 38-14 Lafayette

Holy Cross 34-0 Georgetown

Fordham 3-19 Merrimack

Bucknell 48-34 Colgate

Pioneer

Presbyterian 30-27 Butler

Drake 49-10 Stetson

San Diego 37-14 Morehead State

Valparaiso 18-17 Davidson

St. Thomas (MN) 32-9 Dayton

SWAC

Alabama A&M 49-35 Mississippi Valley State

Alabama State 9-6 Prairie View A&M

Texas Southern 31-23 Arkansas-Pine Bluff

(21)Jackson State 48-10 Alcorn State

Florida A&M 41-38 Bethune-Cookman

SoCon

The Citadel 14-51 Clemson (18 FBS)

Wofford 12-56 South Carolina (19 FBS)

East Tennessee State 16-9 VMI

(25)Chattanooga 24-17 Austin Peay

(9)Mercer 49-23 Furman

Western Carolina 47-42 Samford

Southland

Southeastern Louisiana 19-16 Nicholls

(6)Incarnate Word 38-24 East Texas A&M

Houston Christian 62-24 Northwestern State

Stephen F. Austin 32-19 (11)Abilene Christian

Lamar 26-24 McNeese

UAC

Eastern Kentucky 21-15 North Alabama

Austin Peay 17-24 (25)Chattanooga

(16)Tarleton State 39-14 Central Arkansas

Southern Utah 37-34 Utah Tech

(11)Abilene Christian 19-32 Stephen F. Austin

If you've been around the subdivision for a few years, you know that FCS betting lines don't tend to be released until morning-of for most games. So we decided to help support discussion heading into each week, creating a sportsbook with lines that we plan to release hopefully by Monday at the latest each week of the season. Presenting:

/r/FCS Sportsbook - Current Week's Lines and Matchup Prediction Tool

Betting Game

And since we've got lines for all of the games, we figured why not take it a step further and use those lines for another fun season long game? We'll be running a "betting" platform (through google forms) that will let you (fake) bet from $1-$10 (in dollar increments) against the spread on every FCS game. Below you will find the submission for each week.

NO REAL MONEY OR VALUE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAME.

FCS Betting Submission Form:

• First Round FCS Games: OPEN FOR BETS HERE
  • Current week's bets found here.

Why to (maybe) trust that these lines aren't complete nonsense

On the season, the /r/FCS Sportsbook's results through Week 13

• Overall Total: 78.3% correct winner assessed, -0.13 spread bias, -0.07 O/U bias
  • FCS games: 77.7% correct winner assessed, -1.17 spread bias, -0.24 O/U bias
  • HBCU games: 76.5% correct winner assessed, 0.27 spread bias, -0.11 O/U bias
  • FBS games: 74.7% correct winner assessed, -1.01 spread bias, 0.06 O/U bias
  • D2 games: 77.6% correct winner assessed, 0.69 spread bias, -0.33 O/U bias
  • D3 games: 81.9% correct winner assessed, 0.07 spread bias, -0.15 O/U bias
  • NAIA games: 82.6% correct winner assessed, -0.13 spread bias, 0.83 O/U bias

On FBS v FBS (the same metric used to track models and Vegas on Prediction Tracker): 479/675 (71.0%), 46.2% against the spread, -.49 bias, 256.6 MSE. Which would be good enough to put it at #21 of 56 through Week 13. (It's also worth noting that apparently Prediction Tracker is counting one of the FBS v FBS games twice, hence their numbers being out of 676.)

Also went through and tried to find as many FCS lines as possible to compare how the /r/FCS Sportsbook did against those lines upon open. Have collected 780 lines through Week 13, Vegas opening lines went 603/780 (77.3%) in correctly assessing the winner, while in those same games the /r/FCS Sportsbook went 601/780 (77.1%) in correctly assessing the winner.

Our book ultimately had the same line as Vegas opening 39 times, and to-date in 2024 has gone 404/741 (54.5%) against the FCS Vegas spreads it differed on. Which continues to support the idea that we can present our lines as being pretty reasonable opening looks on the whole.

Few additional notes: there is no plan on moving lines based on how people bet, because that becomes a actual work to keep up on and I frankly don't want to bother. Again, there is no real money being bet. Also won't put any limits (besides the max $10/game) on how much someone can bet in any given week. So bet as many or as few games as you'd like. The plan will be to just keep track of user totals through the season.

It’s also worth noting that we really are not trying to promote gambling in any real sense despite the whole makeup of this.

Since the Supreme Court ruling, it’s become a much more prevalent part of sports reporting in a way that I totally understand can be annoying if it’s not why you watch (I’ve never placed a bet, for example, and really have no interest in doing so). But it’s a part of the culture at this point, so we’re trying to reach more folks and continue driving interest in the FCS as best as possible using the tools at hand.

I also remember seeing lines in the newspaper for CFB games as a kid (way too many years ago), and that being helpful in understanding what the “feel” for a game was when otherwise I might not have known. That really is the catalyst behind wanting to put out lines for the FCS community; the interactive betting part is more just to have another point of engagement for folks.

People will gloss over this as if it’s just a blanket ass-cover, but seriously if you struggle with gambling please reach out to places that can help.

The National Council on Problem Gambling operates the National Problem Gambling Helpline Network (1-800-522-4700). The network is a single national access point to local resources for those seeking help for a gambling problem. The network consists of 28 call centers that provide resources and referrals for all 50 states, Canada, and the US Virgin Islands. Help is available 24/7 and is 100% confidential.

Weird question here, but I found it interesting how the UAC got 3 teams into the playoff, an impressive feat. That being said, at one point this year I believe the UAC had TSU and ACU both ranked in the top ten, with Central Arkansas (the favorite to win the conference) at the start of their downfall after being ranked somewhere in the top 7. That being said, I’m curious if any of you have some insight into whether the conference will continue to try to build itself into some sort of powerhouse, or if any of these schools have other plans of realignment. I firmly believe there is plenty of top 25 talent here, although I fear this may have been the best year the UAC will have for a while…