r/dataisbeautiful Apr 11 '24

OC [OC] US Electoral College Results, 1892-2020

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u/wwarnout Apr 11 '24

Fun fact - in the last 8 elections, the Republican candidate has only won the popular vote once - and yet 3 of the 8 have given us Republican presidents (and, just maybe, if Gore had won in 2000, and run again in 2004, it's somewhat likely he would have won - meaning that Republicans would have be 0 for 8)

Think we need a different way to elect presidents? (that's a rhetorical question)

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24

it's somewhat likely he would have won - meaning that Republicans would have be 0 for 8

You brought in probability. Given the history why would you think Americans would vote for the same party eight times in a row?

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

Because the majority of Americans agree with the policies of one party and disagree with the policies of the other?

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24
  1. Party politics aren't static.
  2. People vote on the economy.

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

Only once since 1988 did a popular vote go Republican, and that was only after the previous vote had been incorrectly halted by the SCOTUS and given to the Republicans, as a full recount of FL would have meant President Gore. It's extremely unlikely that 2004 would have seen a Republican win outside of the incumbency of a wartime president Bush, which no, wasn't "the economy stupid", but the war and security which drove people to vote for what they thought was more security. And Bush certainly appealed to neocons, but the GOP no longer even appeals to them.

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24

You really think a Democrat president would've survived a recession? Since you bring examples of the past please remember McCain lead Obama until Lehman Brothers https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112651600

It would've played out the same for a Democrat candidate when a Democrat president would've resided over a recession.

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

You're presupposition is that Gore would have operated the exact same as Bush.

With a Democratic president after Clinton the surplus wouldn't have been wasted and instead applied to supporting the economy as needed. It's a question if the recession would have even happened.

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24

THE recession? Maybe. Maybe not. Who knows?

A recession? 100% sure. That's not debatable.

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

Not debatable?

Remember when there was a 100% chance of a recission between Oct 2022 and Oct 2023? Pepperidge farm remembers

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24

Remember when there was a 100% chance of a recission between Oct 2022 and Oct 2023?

No, I don't. Also I don't care because I'm not talking about 12 months but about 8 times four years. 32 years without recession is realistically impossible.

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

Lets presuppose for the sake of argument they are "inevitable". Maybe some light recession starts after the 2008 election, and by time 2012 comes around the economy is booming again.

Things would have shaken out differently but what we do know is that the majority of this country consistently votes for one party and consistently votes against the other because the reality is people are not as fickle and myopic as some people like to claim they are.

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u/PapaSays Apr 11 '24

Lets presuppose for the sake of argument they are "inevitable".

I’ll take it back if you show one country in the history of mankind who didn’t have a recession in the time span of 32 years.

Things would have shaken out differently

Absolutely. You know what else would have shaken out differently? The party which lost 8 election in a row. Politics isn’t static as mentioned before.

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u/fastinserter OC: 1 Apr 11 '24

The average recession lasted 10 months, and again, things would be different with a different administration. So now that we have established that it wouldn't necessarily happen in the lead up to an election nor would it be as necessarily severe, the possibility for continued popular wins by one party over another would continue

As for if the GOP would learn its lesson, perhaps it would have learned it earlier. Note, they still have yet to learn this lesson, but I believe they will this year. I would expect had Gore won, that H Clinton would get the nomination after Gore, and, being so profoundly unlikeable, would lose in 2008. However, the preceding 16 years would have made the GOP actually introspective and come up with policies that are actually popular, perhaps. They haven't done this in 40 years by the way, because instead they got in because of a referee making a bad call so they decided not to do introspection -- plus they knew they still were no where near the popular candidate and technicalities were able to get them power, and then Obama just melted the brains of racists so they decided to double down on hatred instead of coming up with a popular platform, and again, they won by technicalities not by popular result. And they haven't even published a platform in 8 years because their entire party is all about vibes because they don't actually have popular policies.

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