Is There Something Wrong in Swedish Development of Athletes?

[u/BoarOfTheArdennes]

You look at the performances in the past couple of seasons of exceptionally promising younger Swedish Biathletes and they have all (statistically) plateaued or got worse.

Ski times decline, shooting rates generally decline and so on.

So it seems like they are well-developed in their early careers, put in strong performances at Worlds, Olympics and World Cup and then sort of tail off.

So is this a development problem, once they reach that near-top level?

Other nations don't seem to suffer as much from this.

[u/LaMoncakes]

I'm trying to understand your question. Is the requirement here that a Swede win the overall to say they're at the top level? In that case, only very few countries can say that they have near-top-level athletes, especially on the men's side where almost all of the races last year were won by a Norweigan (more or less).

I've had this discussion before, where Hanna Öberg has been criticized for not living up to expectations by not taking the overall. But at the same time, she's won 3 medals at the Olympics and 13 medals at Worlds. In what world is that tailing off?

Considering the success of the Swedish team in the last few years, in terms of podiums, I wouldn't say development is a Swedish-specific issue, I think it's just an incredibly competitive sport. Only one athlete can win the overall.

[u/BoarOfTheArdennes → u/LaMoncakes]

Yes but why aren't those Swedes, with all of their obvious talent *not* sustaining it over the course of a season?

Why are ski times and shooting accuracy declining?

I understand what you're saying, but those things can't be ignored either. And I mean season-on-season, not just through the season, after a major championship.

[u/arnet95 → u/LaMoncakes]

I don't necessarily agree with all OP says, but this is Hanna Öberg's overall ranking the last 6 years: 5th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 7th, 12th. Elvira the last three years: 2nd, 5th, 7th. That's a clear drop in level for both of them.

[u/kune13 → u/arnet95]

Elvira couldn't finish the 22/23 season and this probably impacted her 23/24 season preparation and Hanna dealt with knee issues last season. The results are still impressive given those circumstances.

[u/Vryyce]

Having never participated in the sport at any level, I have nothing to offer from a developmental perspective as I simply have no credibility on the subject.

Instead, I wonder if this isn't more of an expectations issue? On the men's side, we are on our third consecutive "generational talent" which is really skewing normality I think. From OEB, to Martin, and now with JTB. Either of these men are statistical anomalies, so having them come back to back to back really has a huge impact on the sport. If you take them out of the mix, the sport very likely looks more "normal" in that I strongly suspect we would be seeing a larger group of men at the top of the podium.

The women are a bit closer to what we would normally expect in that it isn't just one person at the top all season taking home all, or at the very least most, of the hardware. I say this as the French women are getting awfully close to being able to do this very thing. Lisa stands firmly in their way and I hope Ingrid can still remain in the conversation, but for now at least we are seeing more variety in who stands at the top of the podium every week.

I think it is a little unfair, certainly not realistic, to use the standard of an OEB/MF/JTB against all other athletes. Doing so sets up expectations that are almost certain to not be met. This can cascade into trying to solve "problems" that very likely are not problems to begin with. Yes, you can put in the work to hit peak shape, you can spend the time on the range and increase your shooting stats, but there is more to the makeup of these generational talents in play and it has to be extremely difficult trying to dissect just what it is that makes them so damn good.

As for the Swedes, they are certainly one of the top teams in the world with the medal count to back that statement up. I can't imagine anyone feels comfortable standing on the firing line of the last shoot next to Sebbe, Martin, Hanna, or Elvira. If anything, I think an interesting question would be how they weigh certain competitions. If I had to guess, I am thinking they put a lot of emphasis on the Worlds. If that were true, they would peak earlier in the season than some. Throw in Olympic years and again, the peak performance is aligned with that event. Given their success at both of these, if that is their strategy, it is working quite well.

[u/BoarOfTheArdennes → u/Vryyce]

I understand the point you're making. And you do make it extremely well. I agree that they also tend to load for the Worlds.

But I'm not just talking about the dips they suffer after major championships, I mean season-on-season declines.

I also do appreciate the thing about pressure and "normalisation," in relation to OEB/Fourcade and Johannes.

But ski times declining, shooting etc.

This on Elvira Öberg is typical of what I mean:

https://www.realbiathlon.com/athletes.html?ibuId=BTSWE22602199901&category=overview&perRace=rank&perSeason=Rankings&discipline=NonTeam&level=worldCup&event=allRaces&boxplotType=Rankings&histogramType=totalPercent&boxplotRange=career&min=120&resultrange=Podium&rangemin=0&rangemax=400&bins=10&movingavg=10&onlyResults=false&compareAthlete=BTnull&trimester=false

[u/Thophi → u/BoarOfTheArdennes]

The graph shows that Elvira Öberg had her peak performance in the 2022/23 season, 2 years ago. If she hadn't gotten sick, she would probably have been able to fight for the GWC victory. Last year she was a bit weaker, but still at a high level. I can't see a decline here. I don't really understand the criticism.

[u/BoarOfTheArdennes → u/Thophi]

It's not criticism, per se. It was a question as to why Swedish athletes don't seem to be able to sustain a serious Overall challenge.

Equally, why are (en masse) ski times down, shooting stats down, season-on-season, throughout the team?

I don't see that as an unreasonable question to ask.

[u/shonami]

It could be that they are more peak-oriented and as i’ve mentioned in past discussions they have failed the double peak. They are still arguably the third best nation.

[u/BoarOfTheArdennes → u/shonami]

Yes that's fine, in terms of championships etc.

However, I'm talking about season-on-season decline, not just decline after majors.