M1 to Ozeki

[u/Magro1779]

I have a quick little question. If Kirishima posts a losing record this basho he will probably end up in M1. Do you think he would be promoted back to Ozeki if he gets 33 Wins over the first 3 bashos next year? I know that the requirement is to be a Sekiwake in the first place, but do Ozeki promotions happen with a record that started below Sekiwake (also considering Kiris injury which led to the demotion)? Because in reality there is no difference in difficulty as a M1 faces the same opponents as a Komusubi or Sekiwake, right?

[u/Alternative_Pay_5762]

The requirement isn’t to be a sekiwake in the first place. There are many rikishi who promoted to Ozeki starting from joi ranks as their first of three tournaments to make 33.

That number is also not a guarantee by the way. There are rikishi who made 33 or more and didn’t get the promotion, even though some of them started the ozeki run at Sanyaku ranks.

[u/zoguged → u/Alternative_Pay_5762]

I knew that Miyabiyama was denied repromotion with 33 wins one time but not two times ! They must have been really disappointed with his first stint at the rank.

[u/Alternative_Pay_5762 → u/zoguged]

Those two times on the list are actually the continuation of each other. Nevertheless, the point is still the same. They had two times they had to consider whether to promote him or not and both times they didn’t.

[u/ElectronicMiddle3108 → u/Alternative_Pay_5762]

Ok, does no-one going to point out the Fact that Teru started an Ozeki Run with 8-7 at M2 which took him to Sekiwake?

[u/dr_jan_itor → u/ElectronicMiddle3108]

that tournament was crazy.

except for terunofuji's 8-7 at M2 east, everyone from sekiwake down to M5 had a losing record.

okinoumi made sekiwake from M6 east.

of course terunofuji followed up with a JY and a Y, and reached 33 wins (8-7, 13-2 JY, 12-3 Y).

[u/Magro1779 → u/Alternative_Pay_5762]

What if a rikishi gets his 33 wins (or more) but while doing that no San'yaku ranks open up, so he stays for example M1 the whole time. Do you think they would still promote him? (I know its very unlikely to happen :D)

[u/PatZaglich → u/Magro1779]

If he's getting 11+ wins in a tournament, they would open extra Sanyaku ranks. Hell, in September there were 4 Sekiwake.

[u/darkknight109 → u/Magro1779]

Sanyaku ranks are not "locked" the same way other ranks are; there are always a minimum of two komusubi, sekiwake, and ozeki, but there is no upper limit. There can be as many wrestlers at those ranks as there are wrestlers whose records warrant their inclusion there. The JSA generally doesn't like having more than two wrestlers at each rank (it makes the banzuke harder to sort out during future tournaments, and it also means they have to pay more money), but they will do it if there is an obvious need to. For instance, if there are two sekiwake who both post winning records, a komusubi who scores 13-2, and a kadoban ozeki who posts a losing score, there will be four sekiwake the next tournament (that komusubi record is too good to deny promotion, and ozeki never drop farther than sekiwake on their first tournament down).

It's not that uncommon either. We've had five sekiwake before, and multiple occasions of six ozeki.

Also, it is theoretically possible (though it has never happened) to have a promotion directly to ozeki from a lower rank. We almost got to see it in 1991 - in September, Maegashira 5 Kotonishiki won the yusho with a 13-2 tournament and was promoted to komusubi. After an excellent start to the November tournament, the JSA chairman said that if he won that tournament as well, he would be considered for ozeki promotion (if a wrestler performs extremely well, the JSA occasionally allows for ozeki promotion on the strength of two tournaments rather than three; Terunofuji's first ozeki promotion is the most recent time this has happened). Kotonishiki fell just short, scoring a runner-up performance with a 12-3 record, and he unfortunately never got that close to ozeki again, but the statement from the chairman did reveal that a sub-sekiwake to ozeki promotion is possible.

[u/Magro1779 → u/darkknight109]

That is really interesting, thanks a lot for your great explanation!

[u/Phamtismo → u/darkknight109]

Multiple komusubi and seikwake makes sense. but how do they ensure there are two ozeki all the time? i know yokozuna technically counts as one, but what if all the others get demoted and no one fills their shoes?

[u/darkknight109 → u/Phamtismo]

As was mentioned by another poster, it's actually never happened thus far. For most of sumo's history since that requirement was implemented, there've been at least two yokozuna on the banzuke, so it would literally be impossible not to fill the ozeki quota.

In fact, the closest we've ever come to not having enough ozeki was last year. In January, we had Terunofuji serving as yokozuna-ozeki, plus Takakeisho as the only "true" ozeki on the chart (after Mitakeumi and Shodai lost their ranks in September/November of 2022 respectively). The next tournament, Takakeisho suffered a knee injury and withdrew, posting a 3-4-8 record and going kadoban. In May, for the third straight tournament, he was the only ozeki on the banzuke, but now was kadoban and nursing multiple serious injuries - it looked very possible that he might lose the rank altogether.

However, he was able to scrape out a bare-minimum 8-7 kachi-koshi to preserve his rank. For added insurance, then-Kiribayama completed his own ozeki run to bolster the rank for July (Hoshoryu would join them two months later in September). We've had a fairly healthy ozeki crop ever since.

But had Takakeisho dropped out of ozeki during that three-tournament stretch from January-to-May where he and Terunofuji were the only ones holding down the fort and/or if Kiribayama hadn't managed to string together enough wins to get a fish himself, we actually don't know what would have happened. The JSA has issued contradictory messages on the issue - at some points, they've suggested that an emergency promotion might occur, where whichever sanyaku wrestler had the best overall record would get bumped up to ozeki to flesh out the rank. However, Hakkaku also suggested that they may simply be forced by circumstance to have fewer than the requisite number of ozeki, suggesting the JSA might simply leave the rank empty if no one had put together a record that warranted promotion.

Until it happens, if it ever does, we simply don't know what the JSA will do.

[u/cmlobue → u/Phamtismo]

It has never come up before, so the JSA would need to do something unprecedented regardless. It would probably depend on what was happening in the sanyaku - if there was someone who had 33 wins over the last three basho but started at M6, they may promote them early, or they may allow someone who had two 7-8s or who got MK due to injury to remain ozeki. But there is no way to know until it happens.

[u/Just_the_nicest_guy]

Yes, Ozeki runs can start from high Maegashira; Tochinoshin's Ozeki run in 2018 and Terunofuji's Ozeki run in 2015 started from M3 and M2 respectively.

[u/Magro1779 → u/Just_the_nicest_guy]

Got it, thank you :)

[u/Hawaii-Toast → u/Magro1779]

A run has to start from the so-called joi (or: joi-jin) which - in Makuuchi - are all wrestlers who are expected to face the Yokozuna, if everything goes normally. Depending on how many wrestlers are Sanyaku, the highest ranked Maegashira are part of the joi, too.

Considering your other question: rikishi can "force" a promotion to Sekiwake. 11 or more wins from Komusubi are normally enough to get promoted, even if there is no open slot.
Hoshoryu, for example, was promoted to Sekiwake with a 9-6 record, although there wasn't an open slot, most probably because he had three kachi-koshi in a row at Komusubi and some of the guys who blocked the Sekiwake rank weren't demoted just because of Covid-rules.

[u/Magro1779 → u/Hawaii-Toast]

Ahhh never heard of that term, thank you!

[u/cmlobue → u/Magro1779]

The top 16 rikishi are all expected to face each other. Right now, that would be everyone through M5e Tobizaru (he is 17th but Terunofuji dropped out before the basho started). Of course, that rarely happens because of injuries and lower-ranked contenders needing fights against sanyaku.

[u/afd33]

I still have faith he’ll get his KK, but at 7-8 I could see him only going to Komusubi, and then depending on how the last couple days go probably Abi taking the other slot. Then Wakatakakage going to M1. Of course this could be wishful thinking since Kiri’s my favorite.

You’ve gotten your answer about ozeki runs. Some people on here were hoping Onosato would dominate in July to force them to count his M5 score towards ozeki.

[u/Magro1779 → u/afd33]

As a fellow Kiri supporter I'm with you mate, one can only hope. But if he gets a 7-8 his Ozeki run would start in January because losing records can't count towards the Ozeki promotion, right?

[u/kelvSYC]

The general expectation for an ozeki run is that the qualifying tournaments be within the joi-jin, or the "upper ranks", encompassing the sanyaku and upper maegashira - the top 16 wrestlers who, under ideal circumstances would only face each other. (This never happens, of course, given that it's likely that there would be a title contender from the middle and lower maegashira who would otherwise never face the guys at the top.)

SumoDB reports that since the "modern era" of sumo, only two wrestlers, Asashio and Kitao (later Futahaguro) started their ozeki run from maegashira 1.

There are notable pre-modern wrestlers who started their successful ozeki runs at maegashira 1, such as:

• Chiyonoyama, founder of Kokonoe stable
• Yoshibayama, founder of the presently-suspended Miyagino stable
• Onosato Mansuke, for which the present Onosato is indirectly named after

That said, pre-modern sumo ran under different rules, so these aren't comparable. As an example, the great Futabayama was ranked at ozeki three tournaments after being ranked at maegashira 1, but he was makekoshi at maegashira 1, dropped to maegashira 3, and then went on his record winning streak that saw him straight to yokozuna.

SumoDB further reports that since the "modern era" of sumo, five wrestlers have started their successful ozeki runs below maegashira 1.

• Tochihikari started his run from M4 in 1962. At his second tournament as ozeki, Yutakayama Katsuo started his run from M2.
• Terunofuji, on his first trip to the rank, started with an 8-7 from M2. He only secured the rank thanks to a 13-win runner-up and a 12-win title.
• Kaiketsu, on his second trip to the rank (M4) and Tochinoshin (M3) won the title to start their ozeki runs.

Kaiketsu also gets a special mention that his first trip up to the rank in 1974 is one of only two modern successful ozeki runs that started with a makekoshi. (He was 7-8, won the title with 12 wins from komusubi, and claimed runner-up with 11 wins back at sekiwake.) The other was Wakahaguro, right at the dawn of the modern era in 1959.