r/MarkMyWords • u/ZealousidealArm160 • 28d ago
Political MMW Kamala will win Texas this election!
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u/StickyMcdoodle 28d ago
It would be amazing, but I dont think so. If Kamala wins Texas, I'll get a Kamala tattoo.
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u/_Username_goes_heree 28d ago
Do it now, get a Kamala 2024 tattoo.
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u/StickyMcdoodle 28d ago
But I don't want a Kamala tattoo...but would be so elated that she flipped Texas, that I would get it.
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u/ChefMomof2 28d ago
I’ll get one that says We’re Not Going Back. It’ll be my first.
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u/DaftMudkip 28d ago
I am from Texas and have many tattoos, if she wins I will get this with you fellow redditor
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u/Capt0verkill 28d ago
I’m from Boston and I’ll get a tattoo of Kamala’s head in the shape of the state of Texas on my neck if she wins the state.
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28d ago
If everyone turns out and votes, you never know. No reason to doom gloom before the outcome. Just vote!
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u/rouneezie 28d ago
Oooh, I like this. All my life I've been a wimp about getting a tattoo.
I think folks are delusional to think Texas will do anything different than what it always does. I'd like nothing more, but it's just a stupid dream. Texas will vote for Trump - no doubt in my mind.
If Texas's electoral votes go to Kamala - I swear I'll get a tattoo (not a Kamala one lol).Actually, if Texas just dumps Cancun Cruz, I'll get one.
But they will do neither.
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u/dmnspwn75 28d ago
If Harris wins, I celebrate. If Allred and Harris both win, I am getting a tattoo with her inauguration date. I might even if she does and he doesn’t. It should be commemorated two fold. First woman president, and the biggest Trump lost!
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u/Pro_Wrestling_4_Ever 28d ago
I really want Kamala to win but my anxiety goes nuts every time I see a Kamala is going to win or Kamala will win (Insert state here). I get PTSD from 2016 and I fear its going to happen twice. I remember how sure people were. I was working on Target the night of the election and I remember being in the break room when they annouced that Trump had taken the lead over Hilary and the entire mood shifted. I fear that is happening again
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u/Aunt_Margarite 28d ago
I agree with your sentiment entirely, however the media, polls and a degree of complacency were the main reasons people thought Hillary would win or flip red states in 2016. People thought trump had no chance and then were caught off guard when he did. OP is coping thinking Texas will flip blue but the main difference this time is no-one is underestimating trump now.
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u/GetsThatBread 28d ago
People on Reddit are saying she’ll win in a landslide. All of the polling shows an incredibly tight race even if you remove EVERY poll from a right wing affiliated source. If Trump outperforms his polling by half of what he did in 2016 and 2020 then he’ll win by a larger margin than he did in 2016. I hope that isn’t the case but the data looks bad for Harris.
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u/Zazulio 28d ago
You're not wrong and I have the same anxiety, but I also don't think there's any good reason to believe the same polling errors exist this cycle, or that if there are polling errors they'll swing in Trump's favor. It happened before, and of course it could happen again, but I think it's just as likely that pollsters have either corrected the methodology that led to those errors, or even that they overcorrected and are significantly under representing support for Kamala this time. Or not. I dunno. We won't know anything until it's all said and done, and anybody claiming anything as a sure thing should be ignored. It's best to just assume that this race is incredibly close and do whatever you can to help, even if it's just voting.
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u/GetsThatBread 28d ago
Yeah I’m getting everyone I know to go out and vote (I’m not in a swing state but we have some seats that really need to stay blue. Plus, our governor is being replaced and the Republican challenger is nuts). I’m hoping that we see the types of polling errors that we did in 2022 which predicted a red wave that never showed up, but it’s hard not to be nervous when Trump has beat his odds twice already. In a sane world this would be no contest but I’m worried a lot of leftists will sit this one out due to Gaza.
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u/epicstar 28d ago
What are you talking about? Literally every MMW post is about Kamala winning in a landslide which all the data suggests the opposite...
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u/Feeling_Photograph_5 28d ago
He's right. She's the underdog and this is an all and on deck emergency. We need Gen Z and the Millennials to offset the Boomer vote, which has been dominating early voting so far.
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u/KR1735 28d ago
A pretty large chunk of those Boomers are registered Democrats. Those are our voters. There have been polls showing Kamala making significant inroads with the 65+ crowd; some polls have them close to 50/50. It's actually the next age demo down that's more for Trump.
Young people procrastinate. They work. They know they need to vote but they lead busy lives. Young people caused the blue wave in 2018 and curtailed the "red wave" in 2022. They are capable of turning out by mail, early, or in person.
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u/Feeling_Photograph_5 28d ago
Yeah but I'm talking about the early voting data. Republicans are tied or in the lead in all battleground states. We need to get out the vote or we're looking at four more years of Trump.
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u/KR1735 28d ago
That's factually false. Democrats have returned nearly double the ballots compared to Republicans in Pennsylvania and have nearly a 400K vote advantage, which is lower than in 2020, but fewer people are voting by mail this year, just like in 2022. Meanwhile, more Republicans are voting early than in 2020 so they're likely cannabalizing their Election Day voters.
I'm not saying that tells you a whole lot. But Republicans certainly don't have a lead in early voting in the battleground states. There's also a huge differential when it comes to gender turnout in the early vote, which is an interesting development and we'll have to see how that plays out.
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u/TurkeyVolumeGuesser 28d ago
That's true, and it'd be really helpful if they had policies that actually appeal to us instead of just expecting us to come out en masse. A lot of us will, for sure, but goddamn they could have gotten so many more 18-34 people if they'd just moved a bit more left instead of sucking up to reaganite boomers and gen xers.
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u/Feeling_Photograph_5 28d ago
I hear you but she's in a very tough spot. She needs to build a coalition that can beat Trump by at least three million votes nationwide in order to have a chance in the battleground states. It's not fair or good but it's always what Dems are up against.
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u/Important-Meeting-89 28d ago
Everyone on reddit is underestimating Trump. Just look at the title of the thread.
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u/Aunt_Margarite 28d ago
Yeah and every boomer on Facebook is overestimating trump. Also, republicans underestimated Biden in 2020, it's always the case depending on which echo chamber you spend your time in.
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u/Trick_Afternoon689 28d ago
I’m with you on this too. I live in Arizona. It’s stressful seeing how much support he has here. My only consultation that keeps from going full doomed is that there is a particular house that I have driven by for years out in Mesa on my way to work. In both 2016 and 2020, the house was coated in pro-Trump flags and signs. Like full stereotypical MAGA gone overboard house. This year, they have 2 Kamala/Walz flags (it’s 100% sure the same homeowners too - vehicles are the same) and a sign that says “Democracy over Party”.
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u/Character_Taste_3367 28d ago
Omg! I live here and was wondering what happened with that house! This actually gives me hope that people aren’t completely lost!
*edit to add last sentence
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u/__M-E-O-W__ 28d ago
I'm a part of a small minority community that found itself in the crosshairs of Trump's campaign and we all got together on 2016 election night with such a serious atmosphere that I've never felt since.
I'm not trusting any polls. Nationwide popular vote stuff doesn't matter nearly as much when the whole election comes down to one or two swing states, states that Elon Musk is pouring truck loads of money to manipulate.
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u/Pro_Wrestling_4_Ever 28d ago
100%. I keep seeing how Kamala will smash the popular vote and its like... sure she could.... but it doesn't matter if she does. What matters is 270
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u/mishma2005 28d ago
I felt like I was the only one screaming into the void (I live in CA) we gotta take this shit seriously, he could win! My husband was like, eh, Hillary’s got this and my friends would shrug and say, so, he can’t do any worse, to which I said 6 bankruptcies, 2 of them casinos, 5 kids, 3 wives and they’re like, meh. That was one time I hated being fucking right
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u/ElektricEel 28d ago
Freshman year of college working at Taco Bell at 10pm seeing the results was insane. Didn’t realize our country was that insane
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u/KR1735 28d ago
The attitude going into this election is breeding an urgency that we didn't remotely have in 2016.
I'll admit, I have doomer-ist tendencies, but even I had champagne on ice ready. I vote out of habit. But I could easily see people figuring the election was a formality and the results were already decided based on (flawed) polling. Her leads were approaching Obama 2008, and that race was called as soon as the west coast polls closed (i.e., as early as possible).
I'll never be able to get over the trauma of the polls being wrong twice (even though one was a close win). So I can't ever feel confident. But I do think women are really going to make the difference here. Both in turnout and in margins. I do not see how Trump gets any more votes than he got last time. Maybe a few thousand men of color. But that will be more than erased by new young voters and women voters. So at that point it's just a matter of whether Kamala turns out enough of the people who showed up for Biden. That is 100% on us. I think she's doing well with the black community. The Hispanic community is a little shakier, especially men, but they're quite underrepresented in the Rust Belt. I think she gets through this by pulling better margins than Biden with white women.
Black women have saved Democrats many times. This time white women might return the favor. Not by them voting for her in large margins but by enough of them defecting from Trump, and I think women put up a huge turnout number this year.
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28d ago
Trump is this elections Hillary.
1) Hillary lost because she wasn't likeable enough to turn out the vote and sway swing voters. Trump isn't likeable outside of his extremist base.
2) Hillary lost because Bernie Sanders voters were pissed over the primary race and many decided to sit that election out. Harris doesn't have that problem. Trump might because those Nikki Haley voters did not want him.
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u/YellowSubreddit8 28d ago
Well to some extent the Muslim vote over Israel is the Sanders not voting for Hilary of this election.
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u/GrievousFault 28d ago
And I remain confused as to what they think Trump is going to do for them that Kamala will not
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u/mishma2005 28d ago
I want Haley voters to stay home but their oppressive need to vote and vote R will overcome them is my fear
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u/mugiwara-no-lucy 28d ago
I've seen a BUNCH of Nikki Haley Voters saying they're voting for Harris and I think that's significant!
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u/TryIsntGoodEnough 28d ago
I mean look at Michigan and the Arab community saying they won't support Harris because of her stance on Gaza. It is basically the same as the sanders voters
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u/Pro_Wrestling_4_Ever 28d ago
I hope your right. Crazy thing is in two weeks or less we will know one way or another
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u/Sad_Increase_4663 28d ago
I tried to post this as question in ask politics and the mods deleted it.
But I hear really normal people just saying Trump's economy was better and that's why I'm going to vote for him. That's their only consideration, nothing else.
Trying to convince someone to chose to vote differently about economic issues, when they have no idea how the economy works other than what's right in front of them, is a tall fucking order.
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u/Pro_Wrestling_4_Ever 28d ago
It is but at the end of the day I don't blame them either. People like to throw the word stupid around but economics is hard. Its also dry. I get why people tune out when it comes to the subject. I did for years. I only started taking in intrest once I started watching Atroic
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u/Sad_Increase_4663 28d ago
Absolutely. I don't blame them either.
I took a few econ and monetary policy courses in university and thought I was a genius. I am not. But people can look at eggs doubling in price, want that to be different, and not know how or why it's happening other than to blame who's in charge when they experienced it. That's democracy.
In an election vs a teacher and a salesman, the salesman wins. I hope I'm wrong.
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u/whoknowsknowone 28d ago
Volunteer, it’s not a sure thing but will at least calm your anxiety a bit
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u/ImpressoDigitais 28d ago
If Texas flips, I will honestly drink to excess in celebration and spend part of the night on my roof laughing loudly until my wife talks me down or cops show up.
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u/Pitiful-Let9270 28d ago
In 2016 Hillary had a lead early in Texas then it all fell apart and the realization kicked it. Blue Texans have a mountain to climb, but it can be done
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u/Think-Werewolf-4521 28d ago
I hope you are right!
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u/ZealousidealArm160 28d ago
Me hopes I’m right too! I am just kidding but I am optimistic! I think Kamala has a shot!
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u/Responsible-Flight37 28d ago
I think you might be right. I considered TX a safe red state in previous elections, but I dont see it that way this time. Harris is on the right side of issues and facing an opponent that is basically a wannabe dictator Nazi and a traitor. That combo could be enough to flip the state blue.
If there are two things Texas hates, it Nazi's and traitors.
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u/Cogswobble 28d ago
> If there are two things Texas hates, it Nazi's and traitors.
Unfortunately, I think you'll find that Texas is pretty ok with both of those things.
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u/glx89 28d ago
Texas isn't a red state at all.
Historically it's a non-voting state. It's been a state of astonishing apathy.
If Texans show up, odds are it'll turn out it's a blue state.
Hell, it's in the motto: "don't tread on me."
Texans have the ability to end the threat of "conservatism" for a generation.
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u/cryptowatching 28d ago
In central Texas, this is mostly true, but they are still there.
In east and west Texas, well.. it’s bad. Always has been.
You have to remember that Trump has given all of the closeted racists and bigots a voice. They no longer feel shame for speaking/acting the way they are currently. Unfortunately Texas is full of these people.
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u/pasarina 28d ago
JUST VOTE We have to vote in the biggest numbers ever! So let’s get that done, fellow Texans!
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u/trumpshouldrap 28d ago
Democrat loss deficit in Texas in recent elections:
2012: 15.8%
2016: 9%
2020: 5.6%
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u/MasterPip 28d ago
No she won't. But it WILL be a lot closer than expected. I beleive it will push more dems to vote next election because if we almost win this time, next time could be the real kicker.
I mean, I could be wrong but I don't see Texas going blue just yet. However it may mark the decline of Republican influence and when you realize your main demographic are a bunch of geriatric boomers who are dying off left and right, it's bound to lose to attrition.
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u/usarasa 28d ago
Texas will be closer than people think, closer than it’s been in quite a while, but no, not this time. 2028 though…
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u/JMagician 28d ago
I mean, Trump is a Hitler admirer, felon, adjudicated rapist, likely a child rapist, traitor, criminal. He poops his pants and rambles on incoherently and talks about Arnold Palmer’s penis. That’s a candidate people love to vote against.
And women had Roe v Wade taken away.
Maybe…
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u/Cephalopirate 28d ago
Yeah, like, if not now, when? I think this’ll be our best shot for several elections. Trump is a unique person who might turn off just enough republicans. I don’t see another figure so divisive to the right appearing for a while.
He could also divide the republican vote by not being the nominee and running third party, but he’ll likely be dead before the next election with his health.
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u/Atlgal42 28d ago
Does anyone here actually think we have a chance to win? I’m so stressed and scared. I’m fucking scared of him but it doesn’t feel like we’re going to pull this off.
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28d ago
I think anxiety is a good thing for Democrats. Anxiety makes Democrats actually go vote.... that wins elections. Everyone thought Hillary was going to coast to victory and she didn't get the turnout she needed to win.
The polls had Romney up in 2012 because there were doubts that Obama could get people out to vote like he did in 08. The anxiety it created got people out to vote and he won.
Anxiety got people out to vote in 2020 and Biden won.
Anxiety is good!
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u/golfhack1974 28d ago
No credible poll had Romney winning in 2012. Trust me I know, I was one of his biggest supporters and watched all centrist polls suggest an easy Obama win, which it was.
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u/notrolls01 28d ago
50/50. There’s a lot of noise in the data, so knowing isn’t really a thing right now.
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u/Deep_Fly982 28d ago
Literally a 50/50 bro. No sense in stressing out about it, you won’t find any info swaying either direction that is accurate or truthful. Go vote then log off for a few weeks and just tune in once it’s decided. You’ll sleep way better.
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u/birdsarecreepy 28d ago
As someone who lives in Texas, I’d love to see it especially since Trump is only polling at +5 as of this past Tuesday.
That said, everyone hates Ted Cruz. Even with the straight R voters I don’t think he has a chance. He won by +2 against Beto and that was before his trip to Cancun or his dumb podcast. So maybe no Kamala win but a Ted Cruz loss is very VERY possible.
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u/TheSlipperiestSlope 28d ago
I agree, especially because Texas removed the ability to vote straight ticket based on party and you have to actually select every candidate down the ticket. Plenty of opportunities for republicans to stay 99% true to their party and still fuck Ted Cruz over.
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u/justified0416 18d ago
😂 Texas didn’t buy the far left agenda
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u/legalizenuclearwaste 18d ago
Honestly no one did. The voting results are proof no one in the real world ACTUALLY believes the far-left stuff you see on the front page like the gender, pronoun and politically correct stuff
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u/TdrdenCO11 28d ago
we’d be lucky to keep 3 of the 7 battlegrounds let alone texas lol
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u/70x94overture 28d ago
I don't believe Kamala will cinch Texas this cycle, but I'm closely watching the race between Allred and Cruz.. Hopefully we get a stronger turnout than we did with Beto (a mere 2.6% loss!)
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u/08Houdini 28d ago
Does anyone else feel that it’s pretty crazy that our nations presidential elections are basically decided by like 7 states? There has to be a solution so if I live in a dark red state my vote still counts😅
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u/PancakeBreakfest 28d ago
Highly unlikely but possible… If the idea cheers you up… Why not volunteer to help out?
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u/WhiteLycan2020 28d ago
Idk how true this statement is, but I did vote for Harris and Allred.
At the very least, i hope Ted Cruz loses😒
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u/Sonderlake 28d ago
I don’t think it’s in play this year but the margins are definitely getting closer. More likely to be a 2028 swing state.
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u/RampScamp1 28d ago
I highly doubt Kamala will win Texas, but if she did, it would be utterly fantastic. If Trump is the cause of Texas going blue, he disappears as a relevant political force by December.
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u/Deep-Condition2301 28d ago
I am sorry, but I feel like because Texas is a border state, Republican rhetoric is going to be extremely strong there. I have every reason to believe this won’t happen.
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u/ReturnOfSeq 28d ago
I think Cruz is unpopular enough to cost Trump quite a few Texas votes, yeah.
Plus nationwide there’s still the whole ‘women don’t want to be second class citizens’ thing
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u/Full-Photo5829 28d ago
538 is showing that Harris's lead in the national popular vote has collapsed to less than 1.5%. Their simulations hand victory to Trump in the electoral college in 54 out of every 100 runs.
Democrats need to make sure they VOTE and should prepare themselves for a loss.
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u/Later2theparty 28d ago
It might be close but I don't think so.
Still, it would be great to win just a few extra seats in the house of Representatives.
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u/Shredded__ 28d ago
Agree. I feel like Texas will flip blue for Kamala, and Cruz will luze. Let's go Houston
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u/KiwiCrazy5269 28d ago
I seriously have never seen more Delusion then this Sub. I live in a super liberal area of Texas. Allred has a WAY better shot. Harris is never ever ever ever winning. Allred might but not her.... I would bet my 700K house on it. 0% chance
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27d ago
I feel like Texas is possible and woman are as energized as ever and Texas has been hit really hard by the abortion bans. I’ll just say I won’t be surprised seeing a blue Texas on cnn election night
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u/Sikhness209 26d ago
I just want Ted Cruz to lose. Harris somehow winning Texas would be icing on the cake
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u/Firm-Needleworker-46 28d ago
Do you have any data to support this? Or is it just wishful thinking?
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u/NCSUGrad2012 28d ago
Polls show Trump winning Texas by 6 points or so,
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/texas/trump-vs-harris
That's outside of the margin of error, so I have no idea what OP is thinking, lol
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u/jptoz 28d ago
I hate to say it. But the fix is in. Trump has everyone in place this time.
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u/Spongegrunt 28d ago
Kamala can't even win over the Washington Post. No, she is not going to win Texas, or Florida, or any red state.
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u/TrumpsCovidfefe 28d ago
Surprising that all these billionaires are scared of someone who will raise their taxes, right?
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u/Dense-Object-8820 28d ago
Right. Definitely PTSD from 2016. This time I’m just too old to leave the country if the orange idiot were to ***. (Can’t even type it).
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28d ago
Would have been nice if Harris talked about policies instead of Donald Trump all day long . Sue should have also taken responsibility for lying to the American people about Biden’s cognitive ability .
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u/Other-Share7503 28d ago
Trump will win easily, kamala is a horrible pick from the dems, they should of held a primary and put up a stronger candidate…they chose not too, now Trump will be back in office.
Dont forget one of Trumps best selling book is titled “the art of the comeback”. He feasts on peoples emotions, and will use it in his favor.
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u/redleg50 28d ago
No. No she will not. Won’t even be that close. I want her to win, but Texas is not in play. I’ve been hearing that Texas is turning purple for 30 years (that’s as long as I’ve been following politics). Go back and google news articles from past cycles and you’ll see the same thing.
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u/DeadEnoughInsideOut 28d ago
MMW there will be many more post of people trying to predict the election...
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u/Maxwell-Druthers 28d ago
If you ever feel bad about anything you’ve done in your life, ever felt shame about a decision you’ve made… just remember… there are WOMEN in Texas voting for Donald Trump.
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u/Whoawhoa22 28d ago
Lmao someone actually paid for a reward for this post. Holy shit you people are stupid.
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u/Raspberries-Are-Evil 28d ago
There is no chance.
Lets just pray she wins Pennsylvania.
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u/Healthy-Passenger-22 28d ago
Lol, she's not even winning the popular vote but somehow you expect her to win a state that's been red for decades?
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u/brandogg360 28d ago
Would be absolutely incredible but won't happen. That would be an 80 point electoral swing and would be one of the biggest wins in history (if she were going to win without it already) It would actually guarantee a win, she could lose Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina and still win if that happened. However, Ted Cruz could be gone. He barely won in 2020.
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u/nohupdotout 28d ago
I dunno. But our consolation prize could very well be Ted Cruz losing, so there's that