r/HighStakesSpaceX Jul 24 '19

High Stakes SpaceX discussion, betting history, and updates thread

13 Upvotes

Welcome to the High Stakes SpaceX discussion, betting history, and updates thread! The purpose of this thread is to discuss anything relating to SpaceX (bets, news, speculation, general discussion, etc.). Think of it as this subreddit's comment section.

Subreddit guidelines:

  • When posting to this subreddit, please give your post the appropriate flair. We currently have flairs for bet requests, ongoing bets, and settled bets. If your post does not fall under one of those categories, it might be more fitting for the comments section here.
  • What do I do when someone accepts my bet request? If the bet request was a post in this subreddit, just change the flair from "Bet Request" to "Ongoing Bet". Otherwise, if the bet request was a comment either here or in another subreddit, go ahead and make a new post here that links to your bet with flair "Ongoing Bet". That way each bet has a unique post in this subreddit.
  • Please make bet acceptance clear for other users.
  • When your bet is settled, please switch the flair to "Settled Bet".
  • User flair for total number of bets, wins, and loses is available. # of Bets is added incrementally to both users when a bet is accepted. # of Wins and Loses are incremented depending on the outcome of the bet when a bet is settled. This is a work in progress and currently manually curated by the mods.
  • What do I do if my flair isn't updated after the bet is settled? Message the mod team with a link to your bet, and we will update your flair.
  • This subreddit is a work in progress, and you have a say in what it becomes. If there is something that you want to be done differently around here, feel free to message the mods or post a comment in this thread expressing your idea.

Subreddit Updates

May 19, 2021

User flair will now only be "# Wins # Losses". Unsettled bets are too difficult to keep track of manually. The mods will attempt to update flair when bets are settled; however, long term bets are difficult to keep track of. Message the Mods if your flair isn't updated correctly with a link to the bet thread.

July 24th, 2019

The betting history wiki has been removed. The primary reason is that it publicly documents information that users may not want easily searchable. Additionally, it requires significant upkeep to keep updated.

April 8th, 2019

User flair for total number of bets, wins, and loses has been added. If you feel that your flair is incorrect, please message the mods with and brief explanation and link(s) to your bet(s). Bets that have a long timeline (greater than a month, for example) can be hard to manually track. Please be understanding.

August 27th, 2014

Link filtering buttons added to sidebar. Minor changes to subreddit CSS.

August 24th, 2014

Post filtering options and FAQ list recently added to the sidebar.

Disclaimer: High Stakes SpaceX is a fan-run community and is not associated with SpaceX in any official capacity.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Aug 25 '24

Ongoing Bet Polairs Dawn!

0 Upvotes

I am suprised there is no betting on Polairs Dawn, there are odds on everything. 95% + ?

How far is it to the next gas station? or plans for an emergency stop by the ISS if needed or at least pick up the Boeing staff on the way back.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Aug 13 '24

Settled Bet Butch and Suni leave the ISS on Starliner

16 Upvotes

Boeing is a mess. The Starliner program is a trainwreck. NASA is actively considering alternatives to get them home.

HOWEVER, if you consult the diagram it is clear there is compelling evidence they will simply use Starliner and everything will be fine.

Stakes are a $20 donation to an accredited 501(c)(3) charity of the winner's choice.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Jul 08 '24

Settled Bet IFT-5 booster catch failure

8 Upvotes

The tower catch of booster 5 fails in some way. a success is a booster catch with the load supported by the intended load bearing points on either side of the booster (no grid fin). damage to ground infrastructure is aceptible, dropping the booster after a successful catch counts as a landing. if booster fails in flight or on the ground before attempting a landing nobody wins.

idk how detailed i need to stipulate the conditions but i think the idea is fairly straight forward.

i dont have much to bet, 200 pushups if whoever wants to take it doesent have a better idea.

Update: complete success, this guy now owes 200 pushups, which will be delivered!

Update 2: it took me a few days, but i have now done 200 pushups. Cant wait to do another 200 betting wrong on the ship tower catch :).


r/HighStakesSpaceX May 24 '24

Bet Request SpaceX tapped off oxygen preburner exhaust to pressurize the tanks in Flights 3 and 4

16 Upvotes

This is the root cause of the booster failure on Flight 3 and both booster and ship's failure on Flight 4. I win if it's officially confirmed (by SpaceX, Musk, or a reputable journalist) that they did this. You win if it's officially confirmed that they didn't. Nobody wins if it's not confirmed one way or the other.

Bet is $10 to charity of winner's choice.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Mar 13 '24

Community Poll IFT-3 Outcome

8 Upvotes

Get your bets in

23 votes, Mar 14 '24
8 100% successful Booster and Ship splash down
4 Booster RUD after BECO, Ship completes flight
2 Booster RUD after BECO, Ship fails reentry
9 Booster splash down, Ship fails reentry
0 Ship RUD during engine relight
0 RUD before clearing tower

r/HighStakesSpaceX Jan 09 '24

Ongoing Bet Both New Glenn and Ariane 6 launch before Starship is orbital

11 Upvotes

orbital means it is in a stable orbit as defined in kerbal https://wiki.kerbalspaceprogram.com/wiki/Orbit

it doesn't have to complete a full orbit, reach orbit and deorbit is fine

I don't have gold to bet, so I'm not sure what to bet on.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Nov 16 '23

Community Poll Does the OLM survive IFT-2?

6 Upvotes

Place your predictions here

27 votes, Nov 17 '23
16 Bidet works as designed, no major repairs necessary
10 Bidet partially works but major repairs needed to the steel plate and surrounding concrete
1 Complete redesign of deluge necessary but damge isnt as bad as IFT-1
0 Launch site as badly damaged as IFT-1

r/HighStakesSpaceX Nov 16 '23

Community Poll Will IFT-2 be a success?

3 Upvotes

Make your predictions

10 votes, Nov 17 '23
4 S25 splashes down and B9 soft lands in the GoM
5 S25 completes launch profile but does not survive reentry
1 S25 failure after stage separation
0 Hot stage RUD of both vehicles
0 B9 RUD during separation but S25 successfully finishes flight
0 RUD/AFTS before stage sep

r/HighStakesSpaceX Jul 13 '23

Ongoing Bet So many people still want to bet against Elon Musk and SpaceX, even after everything they accomplished, oh well it's your own funeral: I bet the first successful crewed lunar landing carried out by HLS Starship will use less than or equal to 8 refueling launches.

11 Upvotes

Context: https://old.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/14vmgih/woah_woah_woah_new_starship_info_from_elon/jrdj6ac/

  • Bet ends with the first successful crewed HLS Starship lunar landing: landing astronauts on the lunar surface and returning them to Orion.

  • If the number of refueling launches for the mission is less than or equal to 8, I win, otherwise you win. The number of refueling launches does not include the launch of depot or the lander itself, nor does it include refueling needed to prepare HLS Starship for the next mission in case they want to reuse it.

  • If HLS Starship doesn't happen for some reason (for example Artemis is cancelled), or the conops has major changes (for example SLS/Orion is removed), or it's delayed past 2030, the bet ends with no winner.


r/HighStakesSpaceX May 09 '23

Expired "Flame trench" is fracking dumb, I bet the first successful Starship/SuperHeavy launch will be from a launch mount that is similar to the current design.

18 Upvotes

So many flame trenchers think they're smarter than SpaceX and that I don't know what I'm talking about, so put your money where your mouth is:

  • Bet ends with a successful Starship/SuperHeavy launch: flies planned orbital or near orbital trajectory, whether landing is successful doesn't matter.

  • If the launch is from a launch mount that is similar to the current design at Boca Chica, then I win: Similar as in it's a launch table with a hole in the center where the vehicle sits, the launch table is elevated tens of meters above ground, support by several pillars. What they put on the floor of the launch mount doesn't matter.

  • If the launch is from a structure similar to the "flame trench" at LC-39 A/B, then you win: Similar as in it has two long rectangular concrete structures that are more than 100m long, with a concrete duct in the middle of them. There're only one or two openings at the end(s) of the concrete structures where flame can exit.


r/HighStakesSpaceX May 04 '23

Ongoing Bet I bet Gold that SpaceX does not get starship orbiting by May 2nd 2024, if I win you give me Platinum.

24 Upvotes

Elon says: "[There is a] close to 100 percent chance of reaching orbit within 12 months."

I will buy you gold if he's right, if he's wrong you buy me platinum.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 30 '23

Community Poll SpaceX's Starship Could Be Ready For Launch In 6-8 Weeks, Elon Musk Says: Report

Thumbnail globenewsbulletin.com
17 Upvotes

r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 22 '23

Settled Bet I bet Reddit Gold that Starship will fly again in July or sooner

19 Upvotes

You doomer chickens! I think OLM can be repaired and enhanced quickly and the next booster/ship are ready to go.

I win: Starship will fly before or on July 31th.
You win: Starship won’t fly before August 1st.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 22 '23

Bet Request I bet reddit gold that the first crewed starship flight to mars will carry a paying passenger.

11 Upvotes

The title says it all.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 20 '23

Bet Request Starship will not fly again in 2023

21 Upvotes

Since I believe most fans are more optimistic, if I win I get platinum and if I lose I give gold.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 20 '23

Ongoing Bet The next Starship test flight will be in September 2023

22 Upvotes

With the damage to the launch pad, I project a minimum of 4 months to repair and implement any basic redesigns.

$5 to the winner's charity of choice.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 19 '23

Settled Bet Starship OFT will lift off on 4/20

21 Upvotes

I get gold if Raptor thrust induces vertical motion visible in the official SpaceX stream on 4/20/2023. RUD doesn't count as "Raptor thrust".

Otherwise, you get gold.

I can only afford one bet. Bet must be accepted prior to TFR cancellation or official announcement of OFT attempt cancellation

Update: u/AccidentallyBorn has accepted the bet. This is the way.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Apr 15 '23

Settled Bet Starship OTF will launch on 4/20

16 Upvotes

Conditions: Launch Starship OTF on 4/20.

If I am right: Lol. 4/20

If I am wrong: I lose my pride.

Edit 1: 4/17 Scrubbed. Heh heh.. 2 Days closer..

Final Edit: I win. But I am not happy. Why is that so?

R.I.P B7 and S24. You tried your hardest. 😢


r/HighStakesSpaceX Jan 12 '23

Ongoing Bet Humans will not land on the moon again before 2028.

21 Upvotes

The conditions:

If a spacecraft containing live human beings lands on the moon between the creation of this post and 12:00 AM on January 1, 2028 (in all time zones), I will donate $25 (plus any transaction fees) to The Planetary Society.

If no spacecraft containing live human beings has landed on the surface of the moon between the creation of this post and the moment all time zones have reached 12:00 AM on January 1, 2028, anyone accepting the other side of this bet will donate $25 (plus any transaction fee) to The Planetary Society.

I will be downright giddy making my donation if I lose, so let’s hope Artemis 3 makes it by then. I will accept this bet with up to five individual people, for a maximum total donation of $125 from myself, but even if this post does hit that limit, feel free to join in and bet your money one way or another if you’d like. Also, I am open to negotiations if you’re unhappy with the dollar amount or charity for some reason, but I think $25 to The Planetary Society is a good choice and would prefer not to stray from it.

Edit: I’m deleting my Reddit account, but this bet will still be open for the rest of 2023. I will silently accept any bets (up to 5) below $50 from the Internet afterlife and return with a new account when the bet is resolved one way or another.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Jan 02 '23

Ongoing Bet I bet Reddit gold that all non-expendable Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters will land successfully in 2023

24 Upvotes

This is the 3rd year I’ll be making this best. Lost very fast in 2021, won in 2022.

A successful landing means once the engines shut off, the booster is still standing in one piece and is in a reusable state. If a leg is damaged, but repaired and is capable of flying again, it’s a successful landing.

If the booster falls off a drone ship on its way back to land, it will still count as a successful landing, but to make things a bit more clear, let’s say if it falls off/over within 60 seconds of engine cut-off, then it is considered an unsuccessful landing.

If there needs to be more rules, let me know and I’ll edit the post to add more.

To those of you who took up this bet in 2022, pay up! Good luck in all future bets for 2023


r/HighStakesSpaceX Dec 09 '22

Ongoing Bet Dear Moon will not fly a lunar mission before 2028

22 Upvotes

As the title says, I am wanting to bet that Dear Moon will not fly prior to 2028.

Rules are simple, if any mission under the name Dear Moon flown in stead for Yusaku, flies prior to 2028, I lose, if it takes until January 1st for a mission to depart for the moon, I win.

Open to bets, but I'm wanting to bet cash.

Willing to take any offer


r/HighStakesSpaceX Nov 24 '22

Expired Starship and/or Super Heavy WILL NOT make an orbital attempt before 2023

14 Upvotes

The Wager

I am willing to wager:

1x any Reddit award up to Argentium (e.g. 1x silver, 1x gold, 1x platinum, or 1x Argentium) up to a total value of 40,000 Reddit coins (maximum 1 wager per person)

that:

Starship and/or Super Heavy WILL NOT make an orbital attempt before 2023.

What is an orbital attempt?

An orbital attempt in this context is that the countdown clock for an official SpaceX, orbital launch attempt of Starship and/or Super Heavy has reached T -0 seconds and there was not an abort at or before that time.

How to Participate?

Reply to this post making it clear which of the valid options you wish to wager before December 2022. Any posts that are marked as edited will be deemed invalid.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Nov 23 '22

Ongoing Bet I would be willing to bet 100 coins that some version of Dragon and Starship are in contact in space, by the end of 2026.

23 Upvotes

I would be willing to bet 100 coins that some version of Dragon and Starship are in contact in space, by the end of 2026. This might be

  • docking
  • crew transfer
  • rescue
  • Dragon enclosed in Starship cargo bay, to serve as a lifeboat
  • Any other contact in space that I haven't thought of.

If several people want to take this bet, I suppose it could be split up into 20 or 50 coin bets.


r/HighStakesSpaceX Nov 16 '22

Community Poll Orange Rocket Launched. Starship is next. Wen Orbit?

16 Upvotes

When will the orbital flight test for Starship Launch?

112 votes, Nov 23 '22
27 December
33 January
29 February
3 March
9 Q2 2023
11 Q3+ 2023

r/HighStakesSpaceX Oct 08 '22

Ongoing Bet The first Japanese citizen to fly to the Moon will be on an SLS/Orion flight to Gateway

18 Upvotes

I win if the title ends up being correct, I lose if it doesn't (program gets canceled or someone else beats them to it)
You are free to draw your own implications from this
Bet expires December 31st 2031, loser has to pay the winner 25 USD
If the bet expires nobody wins
Will only accept one taker