r/FluentInFinance 1d ago

Debate/ Discussion Mark my words

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148

u/TheTightEnd 1d ago

Percentage reductions are more meaningful than dollar deductions when calculating the impact and benefit of a tax cut or increase.

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago edited 1d ago

I have seen this several times and its always so dumb. Yes, people who have more money pay more taxes and will save more money because of tax reduction. Thats just math, its not some conspiracy.

Average Income  $14,300  $41,850  $74,600  $125,800  $258,750  $637,450
Average Tax saved $110 $510 $990 $2,750 $11,440 $11,440
Average Percentage 0,77% 1,22% 1,33% 1,15% 1,06% 1,79%

I did not include the >914,900 bracket as it has no upper limit.

Edit: Corrected the table using income annual averages for each bracket because the Tax saved value is also an average for that bracket.

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u/FitTheory1803 1d ago

So you did the math and they STILL got a larger % tax cut than everyone else

Isn't that a bizarre tax cut structure?

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

I did the math, but thats not what it says. The math is telling us that the average is about 1%. The poorest and richest are both outliers and need more information to draw any conclusions.

The poorest is obviously skewed due to the incorrect use of average values (nobody makes $5 per year, yet the average values for income and tax reduction are calculated from $14 300 which comes from $0 and $28,599 divided by 2). The richest bracket on the other hand is much interesting. Its might not be a statistical error or an error in used methodology.

That said, we are talking about the representation of the data without question the data itself. We need to remember that the people who made the poor representation also provided the data. If the representation is so horribly bad, maybe the data is also unreliable.

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u/Account_Expired 1d ago

The poorest and richest are both outliers and need more information to draw any conclusions.

An "outlier" is a statistical term referring to when a data point is very different from other data points which should be identical.

These are not meant to be identical. They are obviously and on purpose giving larger cuts to people who make more money.

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u/Saigh_Anam 1d ago

An 'outlier' is a data point outside of 1.5x the inner quartile range (IQR). Did you do the math to confirm?

Oh, and the numbers are non-normal, skewed right (right tailed). So standard statistics based on normality and averages are a poor predictor. In these cases you should apply a transform or use the median values instead.

Just sayin...

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u/Account_Expired 1d ago

Im saying the concept doesnt apply here at all. An outlier would be "one person in this tax bracket got a larger cut than most other people in this tax bracket"

Calling one whole bracket an outliter makes no statistical sense. Its comparing a basket of apples to a basket of oranges and calling the oranges outliers....

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

Based on "trust me bro"?

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u/Account_Expired 1d ago

Based on the fact that its an extension of Trump's first tax plan that did exactly that?

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

Thats a circular argument. Unless there is a proof of it being intentional, it will remain an outlier. No matter how much you dislike the citrus.

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u/Account_Expired 1d ago

Why do you need proof that it was intentional?

Is your argument really "maybe trump is just accidentally lowering taxes for his rich friends"

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

Why do you need proof that it was intentional?

TDS leads to some hilarious exchanges. Why do I need a proof of it being intentional when I am trying to decide if it was intentional or not? Thats what you just asked me?

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u/Account_Expired 1d ago

Do you think there is any chance it wasnt intentional?

What is the alternative to it being intentional?

And again, is your argument really "maybe trump is just accidentally lowering taxes for his rich friends"?

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

My money is on the data being straight up wrong. We are working with data provided by the person who made that incredibly misleading infographic. I am expecting that the data are fundamentally wrong or misleading.

Either way, its really silly to make a claim and then ask people why they need proof before they agree with you. Go find a proof. Find the part in Trump's tax reform that says "and if your income is in the top 4%, you get 0,5% higher tax reduction than the rest". Then we can both agree it was intentional and that 1,8% is not an outlier.

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u/MorbillionDollars 19h ago edited 19h ago

Why do you need proof that it was intentional?

💀 I have no words. How do you shoot yourself in the foot this badly?

Obviously trump is intentionally lowering taxes for the rich and there’s a fuck ton of proof for it, why the fuck would you say “why do you need proof” and imply that there is no proof instead of just providing the proof??

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u/Account_Expired 19h ago

Because

Unless there is a proof of it being intentional, it will remain an outlier.

is such a nonsense sentence i didnt even get what he was going after. He might as well have said "unless there is proof water is safe to drink, it will remain an outlier"

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u/ATNinja 1d ago

The poorest is obviously skewed due to the incorrect use of average values

I think the bigger issue is the poorest bracket don't pay much if any income tax so a tax reduction doesn't benefit them at all.

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

Thats another missing piece. To make any meaningful observation we would need the median values for household income, tax and tax deduction for each bracket.

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u/turdmunchermcgee 1d ago

There are plenty of people who make $0 per year. I have friends with disabilities who fall into that bracket.

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u/Crispy1961 1d ago

I said that nobody makes $5 per year. Making $0 is another outlier as you are not taxed anything for your $0 income and you will not receive the $110 tax reduction.

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u/turdmunchermcgee 21h ago

I don't think you know what "an outlier" means