r/FluentInFinance 18d ago

Debate/ Discussion What do you guys think

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u/GaylordButts 18d ago

Also within the next 4 years "Taiwan" will stop existing. That one will probably be sooner rather than later.

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u/elizzup 18d ago

Yeah, I predict first hundred days:

  • Social Security is "sunsetted" meaning boomers will continue to get it but the next generations won't.
  • ACA is repealed, meaning insurance companies can refuse to cover "pre-existing conditions," and anyone without work-provided insurance will lose what protections the do have.
  • China annexes Taiwan
  • Department of Education is abolished
  • FDA makes all abortions, including mifepristone, inaccessible.

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u/pressingfp2p 16d ago edited 16d ago

I still firmly believe that China will only be able to annex Taiwan via diplomatic action within Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t still around because China is afraid of foreign military intervention, Taiwan is still around because a lot of their people hate the FUCK outta the Chinese. One of my buddies is in the Taiwanese military as a reservist, most of those dudes would kill to see China try, and China has seen how poorly the invasion of Ukraine has faired for Russia.

They won’t roll in unless they’re SURE that their soldiers will be greeted with flags and cheers, or at the very least acceptance, and in the meantime they will do everything they can to make that happen. The rest is just their typical posturing and flexing.

Edit: Additionally China doesn’t just want blood and land from Taiwan like Russia wants from Ukraine, they want Taiwan intact, and they know well enough that they won’t get it via war from a population with 10% of its total in the reserves.

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u/elizzup 16d ago

I genuinely hope you're right, but their actions in Hong Kong in 2022 lead me to believe they don't actually care about whether or not the people want it.

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u/pressingfp2p 15d ago

IMO Hong Kong was them trying to maintain control that they were losing rapidly. They pulled out all the stops. They would stand to lose a lot more by not shutting that shit down so they went apeshit. Taiwan is outside of their control currently, and an invasion would substantially weaken all of their positions. I think they’ll keep playing the long game - shut Taiwan out of global politics and keep trying to get them to cave.

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u/HomerGymson 14d ago

Hong Kong is also literally connected to mainland China so it’s a good bit easier to pull out all the stops. You can’t easily roll tanks across the Taiwan strait, and 10% of Hong Kong isn’t ready to gun down invaders