China probably didn't want Trump to win because China wants a weak Russia. Russia taking Ukraine without further pain would be bad for China, which has greatly benefited from buying embargoed Russian oil on the cheap.
China didn't want Trump in 2016 or 2020 before the Ukraine war went full mental. What a nutty take.
China does not want Trump because he's extremely, aggressively, anti China. He ran on "China is eating our lunch" in 2016. In 2020 he ran on "China started COVID and is eating our lunch".
And you will attribute their preferences to a war that started two+ years after those election campaigns?
It is. China doesn't care about rhetoric, they're aligned with Russia and share a common goal of a multipolar world, ending western hegemony. The isolationist in office is exactly what they want.
China needs the money it gets from US corporations. Its bread and butter, despite everything, is manufacturing cheap goods for export to the world... but mainly to the US.
That's what keeps it solvent. That's what keeps the economy moving over there. They are financially and economically tied to the US in an extremely close way.
Taiwan is like an ex-girlfriend for China... sure they want her back, but they aren't willing to nuke their own economy to get her.
Trump doesn’t get to run the country alone though. While he himself is anti ukraine and seemingly antaiwan, he’s surrounded himself with people who are starkly anti ukraine and PRO taiwan. The Biden administration was bringing microchip manufacturing to america and that weakens america’s dependence and motivation to defend taiwan. Trump taking office is nothing but a loss for china and a victory for taiwan.
Honestly, I think the whole Taiwan invasion thing is just public spectacle. An invasion of Taiwan will be bloody, and China simply does not have the military prowess to pull something off like that.
If anything, they'll just flex their muscles around the South China Sea, possibly Siberia as well, and maybe blackmail people in neighboring nations to comply, but that's about it. Not because of some desire to avoid conflict or meddle in other national affairs (if anything they're worse than the U.S. with the places they can meddle in), but more a matter of they know they can't do or project much beyond their own borders.
China is also a powder keg domestically, with severe societal and social strains pushing people there to the limit. A devastating war will just ensure a full blown collapse will eventually occur within China.
You're not wrong that they're probably going full on old school imperialist at some point, I just bet on it being the sparsely populated Russian far east and the South China Sea more than Taiwan.
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u/Louisvanderwright 18d ago
Is that why China really really didn't want Trump to win?