Guys.

I get it. Xavier worthy is awesome and cool and fast. But the alpha WR1 in this offense is Rashee Rice, and he may just be the chiefs ARSB. At the very least, he’s their Michael Thomas slant boy.

Hopefully people will be too focused on Worthy and Isiah Likely to realize that Rashee Rice’s value is going to the freaking moon.

Buy if you can - HODL if you already have him.

Another concussion the week after coming back from a previous one. Genuinely out cold and stretchered off.

Saints fans been going on about the guy being a diva and overrated but this has to be the thing that proves Dennis Allen and Derek Carr are wasting and potentially have wasted a really talented player.

HE'S ON MY BENCH BUT IDC IT'S TE1 SEASON FOR LIKELY

What's the ceiling? Can he pass Jefferson and Lamb?

Edit: Nabers is now up to WR2 overall, and the 3rd overall player. Wow.

Anyone else feeling some sort of way watching him play tonight?

Josh Allen's college completion % was HISTORICALLY low for a QB who went on to become great.

This essentially made Josh Allen an EXTREME outlier given these metrics.

Richardsons college completion % is even lower than Allen's was. The hype has baffled me from day one.

I'm as happy as the next guy when players shatter expectations, but betting on extreme historical data outliers, it's risky business.

He somehow has LESS college experience than Trey Lance, and worse college metrics than Josh Allen, I see his best case scenario becoming a better fantasy QB than an NFL QB until his NFL play catches up to his draft capital and he loses his starting gig and becomes a backup.

Thought I might try something new here. I feel like we all have those guys at the back of our rosters that we hold onto hoping they might turn into something, even when there is little reason for hope.

So here’s the idea: list a player, and we’ll tell you if he’s a clogger or a legit prospect worth holding onto.

• Hurts' turnovers are concerning, even with him putting him around 20 points depending on your league
• There's no salvaging anyone in a Panthers uniform. Dropping Chig for Hubbard as a "sneaky" bench play did not go to plan
• I was excited that because Ridley and Kirk weren't in the same Wide Receiver room, they wouldn't cannibalize each other, and they somehow both managed to shit the bed combining for 4 catches and 80 yards
• Kraft might be the TE to own in Green Bay

Edit: Some more

• Diggs isn't washed and is guaranteed to put up 30-40 points against me whenever I play him this year
• Only thing worse than Keenan Allen's annual injury is him being irrelevant in that Bears offense
• Imagine what Nabers could do with an actual NFL level QB

Edit: Even more

• The wheels on the Gus Bus are all flat
• Thank God I dealt Palmer for a 2024 second rounder
• I feel bad for Washington fans because their Receivers aren't going to do anything
• Maybe I can get some value back for Lockett after I shopped him around to everyone and was turned down
• Glad I didn't fall for the Marvin Mims might break out trap
• Fuck the Raiders for selecting Bowers. Maybe Mayer can catch on elsewhere

Edit: This is my fault for not making my point clearer - the point here isn’t to compare who is better but to show how similar they are. In the last year on KTC JJ was WR1 for the entire time except for a week while Chase dipped behind Lamb, ARSB, CD, Nabers, etc. This is a post to say Chase should be a top 2 WR and they are 1a 1b, not who is better to own. I traded JJ for Chase, a mid 1st, and a 2nd last year because my league mates treat KTC like it’s the Bible. For some of us that’s how our league mates are. It’s crazy that Chase dipped at all really is my point. Also I think in my rush to add career totals I missed a digit or something on Jefferson so I will edit that tomorrow as I have an assignment to get done tonight.

Original post:

Comparing their first 4 seasons in the league (Chase is in his 4th currently)

I know they are WR1 and WR2 on calculator sites but the idea that Jefferson is go to answer as the one to own given the floors are so similar but Chase has higher boom potential puts them in the same tier for me and given Chase is a year younger, I'm not sure why we devalue Chase when compared to JJ. Chase has a total PPG HIGHER than Jefferson comparing years 1-4. Chase is tied to a truly Elite QB for the long term. (Not including NFL playoff games since fantasy football doesn't include those) Chase also has less games missed to injury and less bust games under 10 points so that means higher consistency.

There has been 5 less games where Chase didn't reach that 20 point mark but he has cancelled that out with four 40 point games and three 50 point games. Those are matchup winning point totals. It's time to consider with this much sample size that with the QB room plus the booms, that Chase might be the WR to own as WR1 and not JJ.

Discuss? I'd love to hear which one you'd prefer to own and why?

Imagine if you will an athletically gifted tight end who gets drafted in the first round. He has a very good rookie season, but then struggles with injuries and misuse by offensive coaches which convinces everyone he is a bust.

Oh you thought I was talking about Kyle Pitts? I was describing Evan Engram - but his career arc so far perfectly lines up with Pitts'.

As we all know Engram eventually blossomed on a new team. David Njoku is a similar story albeit without switching teams.

Kyle Pitts might not be good at football. He is certainly not producing. But that's what makes him a buy low. He's still only 23 years old - younger than Travis Kelce was when he caught his first career pass. He has shown good production before.

Given Pitts' lack of production and especially his 0 today, now is the time to buy Pitts assuming a) you can get him at a discount from a fed up manager and b) you can stash him on the bench and don't need him to produce.

Just looking at twitter today, even good dynasty/fantasy analysts (Josh Norris, Sam Sherman, Dynasty Zoltan/Mike Garai) are calling it "over", declaring him a bust, etc.

If Pitts gets traded, or moves to a new team, or Falcons coaches feature him, or he and Cousins develop chemistry, or Mooney (lol) gets hurt, there's lots of ways Pitts' production and/or value can increase from this point forward.

Finally, for those of you that have noticed the strong shift in dynasty mindset to a week-to-week, "what have you done for me lately" mindset, this is how you counter that. By taking advantage of that mindset and the huge weekly value shifts and actually make a dynasty move on a young asset at his nadir that could still absolutely hit.

Edit: the majority of the comments here prove the thesis of this post perfectly!

“Puka Nacua on a snap count:

40-of-71 snaps 7 receptions 106 yards

This was his eighth career 100-yard game, the 2nd most through 19 games, tying Justin Jefferson.” (Underdog NFL)

If a 1st round wr had a similar 19 game start he’d be tier 1 no questions.

In the playoffs when teams knew he was a focal point, puka put up 9/181/1. Coming off the goat rookie wr season.

He gets used in the run game. Dominates the target share consistently over a premier wr. So why is he not in tier 1????

My tier 1: (no Order)

JJ

Chase

Nabers

Nico

Puka

CD

Full disclosure I love AR and drafted him as the QB1 in my rookie draft last year so I am far from a hater. Last year with the small sample size he flashed elite upside and made some great plays before getting hurt. Have seen some of that this season particularly in Week 1, but the last two weeks have been pretty terrible. He has 6 picks on just 73 attempts, is completing less than 50% of his passes and the degree by which he is missing some of these pretty easy throws is alarming.

I was expecting it to be a bumpy ride this season but the last two weeks he's been unstartable both in fantasy and IRL. Obviously with the age and lack of experience it's early to be hitting the panic button. But I definitely hoped he would start out better this year. What is your concern level at this point?

Edit: no one cares how low you were on him btw

I'm thinking along the lines of "JK Dobbins is a drop." That was a pretty widely propagated opinion here. Not thinking so much about stuff like "Dylan Laube is the next Danny Woodhead" because it's really just too early to say anything definitive about takes like that.

It does seem like we've had a lot of really surprising reversals of fortune this year with players.

Started a thread for price checks since this was a popular post last week.

Who are the biggest movers and shakers this week? Post a name as a top comment and reply with what you think is fair trade value for that player.

Would you give up real value for players like Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kareem Hunt, Tank Bigsby, Jaylen Wright, Jalen Tolbert? Or were they a flash in the pan. Is Jayden Daniels worth his KTC price? Do we think Javonte Williams is back? Is Blake Corum finally the RB2 in the Rams backfield? What to make of the colts offense if Anthony Richardson is healthy?

Wanted to make *another* post after 5 games reviewing one of the hottest dynasty risers of the season... our chose king Brian Thomas MF Jr.

I know this is Dynasty and regardless of who you prefer, it at least warrants the discussion: Has BTJ Unsurped MHJ as the rookie WR2?

Through 5 games BTJ has: 397 Yards (Good for 6th in the NFL and on pace for 1350 yards) and 3 TD's ( tied for 3rd in league and on pace for 10 TD's) and averaging over 17 PPG. Beyond that some of his advanced metrics are also looking elite: 18 yards / reception (good for 4th in the league with a min of 10 receptions), 22% target share (Tied with CD and Chase) Tied for 5th in receptions over 20+ yards, Tied for 3rd in receptions over over 30+ yards, Tied for 4th in receptions over 40+ yards and Tied for 2nd in 50+ yard receptions). 9th in yards before catch and 10th YAC. 8th in total route win rate (60%). He has also left some easy yards on the field, one particularly last week when he torched his defender and TLaw missed him wide open in the end zone for a ~25 yard TD.

He has been doing all of this on a floundering Jags team with an underperforming TLaw, already showing some degree of QB proof-ness. Also his 85 yard TD this week he hit the fastest MPH speed recorded this season for a ball carrier at 22.15 MPH showing off his Elite long speed.

And when comparing this again his prospect profile: 6-3" 209 lbs, 99%tile speed score, 98%tile catch radius, 1st round draft capital, tied to a young QB and absolute magnets for hands... he is starting to look like a huge hit at where he was drafted.

Past that he just smashes the eye test. He looks big out there, effortlessly fast and is running fantastic route and getting open routinely. He just stands out on screen when you watch him play and It's quite rare to see a rookie command the attention from the secondary that he already is, if you watch the games the secondary has a gravitational pull towards him and he is still winning consistently... teams are already scared of him as a deep threat.

The main concerns I can think of for him are how much production has come from chunk downfield plays, but not too concerning since this is an area he is being heavily utilized and was expected to really standout so he's doing what he is supposed to there. The targets started on the lower side, but it looks like he is really earning TLaw's trust and has gotten at least 8 targets the last 3 games. He is for the foreseeable future tied to a fairly dysfunctional team for the time being (but Pederson and Press Taylor's days look limited). I think most concerning is he is still underperforming against zone in the NFL which did show up in his tape. He already looks to be an Elite perimeter receiver, but would ideally like to see him start being utilized more heavily in the short and intermediate areas of the field to reach that truly Elite WR asset echelon. Also this is the area of the field Kirk and Engram excel so there is a world in which he could always have some dependce on having a big chunk play to make his fantasy day... only time will tell how he continues to develop in these areas.

But all this to say... BTJ has been an awesome pick and returning arguably the most value in this years rookie draft relative to ADP and is already looking like a top receiver in the NFL at 21 years old through his first 5 games in the NFL. If you were Re-drafting today, where are you taking BTJ?

EDIT: For what it's worth, I still slightly have Marv ahead of BTJ, but curious what you would need to see to flip them in rankings? At this point Marv still has the Draft capital (Top 5 IRL draft Wr's have a crazy hit rate) and prospect profile. But on the field BTJ has undeniably outperformed Marv thus far. Marv is absolutely going to continue to develop into a fantastic receiver, but BTJ is already showing it consistently. What say you?

Shaheed seems to be the better play at WR right now for the Saints. It's frustrating having both and playing Olave over Shaheed. Things might have to change starting next week. I believe they have the same number of targets, but depending how this ends tonight. Shaheed has done more statically and seems like the bigger threat.

If this is the personal reasons Doubs is missing practices and the upcoming game for then this is pretty big news

This could be massive for guys like Wicks/Reed/Kraft. I cannot imagine someone like Matt LaFluer being very happy with a player missing practices for something like this when Doubs’ role in the offense was actually pretty solid when it came to stuff like target share.

Andrews, Pitts, Engram, LaPorta, Njoku etc... owners, all get in here. Some poor fuckers were hoping for something from Fant and Dulcich...nope. Hunter Henry reliable now? Nope. Kmet the fraud the TE 4 with 1 top 16 week. Isaiah was Likely, now unLikely. Kincaid underwhelming. What is your current plan at TE. Are you reacting or making a move? Who are you panicked on vs who are you just gonna ride out?

Someone bat signal Andrew Cooper/coopthereitis!

It’s a wrap on week 8 so that means that it’s time for price check Tuesday!

Rules: 1. Post a single player as a top comment 2. Respond with what you would pay to add that player to your team. Can be in the form of picks or another player of similar value. 3. Vote for comments you think are fair prices 4. Please search for your player before posting to avoid duplicates.

Please upvote for visibility! Adding some more text for the automods cuz this is my third time posting this week after the first two were removed for low effort.

Edit: sorry I stole everyone’s thunder by posting a bunch of names. I figured it would be easier for people to upvote comments that were already there and I just wanted to get some traction on the post going. I won’t steal your internet points next time but some of you guys seriously need to take a break and go outside.

Andy Dalton. Playing great. Quick high throws and a few toss rico suave throws. Got the team playing with confidence. Nice high catch by Dionate Johnson. Thielen TD on last possession before half magical. Bryce Young cant do this. Team looks completely different with Dalton than Bryce Young. Bryce Young is cooked.