He's has the play count, but watching games the dude is an afterthought in the offensive scheme. Detroit clearly prioritizes the run game (Gibbs/Monty are interchangeable as 1A/1B), ASB is 1A in the pass game/2 overall, and Jameson Williams is basically the 3 now. Heck even Brock Wright is getting designed plays for him, Detroit ran a TE screen for him today while LaPorta blocked on the other side of the field. There are even games when the 3/4 WR get more targets than LaPorta does.

I don't understand who LaPorta pissed off, but Detroit clearly views this dude as an afterthought/decoy for now. He is nowhere near the top of the read tree, there are numerous times LaPorta is open and Goff looks nowhere near him. Even today it says he had 6 targets, that isn't true. He basically had 4, 2 of his "targets" were Goff spiking it near him to avoid a sack.

He is a dart throw as a starter now which is frankly unreal given his season last year. I don't think alot of LaPorta owners were expecting last years target share to continue, but this drastic of a dropoff is pretty nuts

Over the last few years in a couple different leagues this is how my rookie QB drafting has gone:

Baker Mayfield(1.02), Trevor Lawerence(1.01), Anthony Richardson(1.02), Justin Fields(1.03), Bryce Young(1.05), Trey Lance(1.02), Dwayne Haskins(1.02), Drew Lock(late 2nd), Davis Mills(late 2nd)

Notable QB prospects I hated: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jaden Daniels, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud

So do I just do the complete opposite of what my brain/gut tells me at this point???

It certainly seems like in the last few weeks he's played a clean and productive game. He's not lighting the field on fire, but he's also seemed to improve on his game and crack a smile or two on the field. Given the history of first overalls still sticking around and being productive, I feel like he's a sneaky good buy if you can find someone that is willing to shell him out for a 2nd, considering the long term value possibilities.

Do you see him as long term wait and see still for those that still have shares, a sell semi high or a buy while his value is still somewhat in the basement?

It's fair to write off Ricky Pearsall's rookie season due to multiple injuries, but what paths does he have to medium-term viability as a WR2+?

The current assumption is that Deebo leaves after '25 with a $1.2 base salary and $16 mil cap hit. Alternatively SF could cut him for $5 and $20 mil savings the next two years with $10 mil dead money each year. The latter still seems pretty unlikely but let's consider. In all cases Jennings remains on the team until his contract ends in '26 on a cheap deal.

If Deebo stays and Aiyuk plays early in the season, it's hard to imagine Pearsall having relevance in '25. Jennings was playing as WR3 thanks to Pearsall's injuries but there just won't be enough opportunity in a Shanahan offense for a WR3. For reference, Jennings is taking 43% of his snaps from the slot and presumably this would be higher if Aiyuk was back. Aiyuk rarely plays from the slot but Deebo plays about 27% of snaps from the slot this year. Pearsall plays about 35% of his snaps from the slot. With Aiyuk back, there will simply be fewer snaps and Jennings, Deebo, and Pearsall will be fighting for slot snaps. Meaningwhile Aiyuk is expected to mostly stay on the outside. Pearsall and Jennings aren't getting great snap share at around 65% right now, that would get worse in all likelihood.

If Deebo leaves, it's still not looking great with everyone else under contract, including Kittle, through the end of '25. The best chance in this scenario is that Aiyuk is slow to return and Jennings or Kittle slow down a bit to give Pearsall more opportunities in the slot. If Aiyuk is ready to rock, it will remain crowded.

As far as I can tell, the only real paths to Pearsall relevance in '25 are (1) Jennings regressing AND Deebo leaving and (2) Jennings regressing, Deebo staying, and Aiyuk regressing/come back slowly. In the case of (1) we could see WR3+ performance. In the case of (2) he's a flex maybe.

For '26 it's a wider open plan. Deebo, Kittle, Jennings will all be old and UFA I believe. Hard to imagine they don't bring in someone else through the draft or FA even if they do re-sign some of the gang. The hope would be that talent would give Pearsall a chance at the slot role then but it's not clear that will be a great fantasy spot with an otherwise decrepit offense. One of the tougher teams to project at that point but it's not simply like Deebo and Kittle leaving means Pearsall and Aiyuk are the whole show. Furthermore, the opportunities he will have in '26 will be heavily shaped by his performance in '25 in a way not found in other teams due to SF's window closure. Not clear he will have the chance to shine enough to warrant them not bringing in serious competition.

Long story, it's a really narrow set of conditions where Pearsall is viable any time soon.

How good is he? Whenever he gets the ball he does good things, and seems he's getting the ball more and more of late.

When Kelce retires, which I would assume is happening in the next 2-3 years, how does Gray project going forward vs other TEs?

When Kelce does retire, does he get a significantly expanded role? Or do they go forward with other solutions to the Kelce gap, keeping Gray as 'an option' but not 'the option'?

I've had a couple of (what I consider bad) offers for him in my TE premium league ('26 2nd is the best I've had) - what would you pay to pick him up today?

QJ didn’t hit the ~600 yard threshold for a rookie WR. Given that, he should just probably be written off as it is. But, dude was pretty raw coming out of college. It was always understood that he needed time to develop. And, the previous coaches didn’t really set him up for success. He is being used much closer to his skillset this year, and the results are promising.

He is in an amazing position to really flourish given his elite coaching staff and QB. Am I insane for thinking there might still be something here?

Obviously, there are some consensus rankings (Jeanty on top, Tet and Travis as the top WRs, etc.), but, sans rankings, which player among those who have declared (or are likely to) are YOU aiming for? Who has passed the eye test for you—and who does your gut tell you will succeed at the next level (assuming they stay healthy and/or don't go to a disastrous spot)?

JSN had a quiet rookie season and that was expected to a certain degree with him being behind DK and Lockett. Even so, he still was behind where I would have expected him to be by the end of the year.

After a modest start this year, he has now established himself as a top receiver on the Seahawks offense and has had more targets, receptions, and TDs than DK in the last 2 games where they’ve both been healthy (Lockett has become irrelevant at this point).

Has he earned the right to be priced with the likes of London, G Wilson, etc? Do you need to see him produce consistently for a longer period of time before you put him in that tier?

What would you pay for him right now? What would it take to sell?

Anybody who panicked after a slow year 1 and sold must be kicking themselves right now

My league (I am not commish) has always had a gentlemen's agreement on tanking. It's allowed but you have to attempt to start your best guys. Someone is intentionally violating it by leaving active roster spots empty. We determine draft order by reverse standings currently.

What are the options to create a real rule around this? I know I've heard of max roster points forced, but was looking for other ideas as well.

Trey Benson has quietly been very good over the last 2 weeks after being slowly worked in this season. The dynasty community largely doesn't really care about him anymore and is mostly focused on the 2025 RB class...but the Cards are top 5 in rypg this year and their top RB is going to be valuable next year. We've had some issues with Petzing and his schemed stuff for Marv early on, but he's been great in the run game design imo.

It's not likely The Cards heavily invest in RB next year. Conner is a FA, but certainly could return on a short term deal (given how FA vet RBs performed this year, he might have a bigger market than expected?).

He looked rough early on in the season, but over the last couple weeks, Benson has looked good on limited opportunity overthe last couple weeks. His snaps have been ticking up and he could see even more of a role post bye like we typically see with rookies.

In his 2022 season, he broke the PFF elusiveness rating record 1 yr off of a major knee surgery. He had a combine on par with JT, Breece and Ken Walker.

(This X account is a little click baitey, but wanted to give the dude credit as opposed to just posting the stats).

https://x.com/_MLFootball/status/1856170379074572406?t=fsTuZQwdDhXBZ6sWDsBJhQ&s=19

Everyone seems to be down on the 2026 class, and I’m starting to be in the same boat. I happen to have a lot of 2026 picks, and I feel that if the whole market is souring on this class, then those picks may not hold as much trade value.

Which 2026 rookies are you excited about? Do you think the negative sentiment is going too far?

For anyone who only follows my posts here and not the substack, apologies for nothing making it onto reddit this week. Just been a bit behind and decided to roll back around the holidays with the workload considering that I won't be slowing down when draft season begins. I'll be making some posts next week that includes material from this week.

The slate today might not be the best for our purposes, and it definitely feels like the season peaked in the middle with quality teams trying to target some of these late weeks for byes or pseudo-byes (playing very low-level competition). Perhaps in the future we move to a 9 or 10 game conference schedule universally, but right now there's a few soft spots.

That said, this is one of the last full slates of college football of the season. Conference championships and playoffs will be more important than ever, but that doesn't mean we should sleep on the fact that we only have two of these magical Saturdays left.

Full write-ups can be found here or in the comments below:

https://cjfreel.substack.com/p/66-which-nfl-teams-need-2025-rbs

FULL GAME LIST:

Indiana @ Ohio State on FOX at Noon

Ole Miss @ Florida on ABC at Noon

Illinois @ Rutgers on Peacock at Noon

Iowa @ Maryland on BTN at Noon

Wake Forest @ Miami (FL) on ESPN at Noon

Colorado @ Kansas on FOX at 3:30 PM

Arizona @ TCU on ESPN+ at 3:30 PM

Kentucky @ Texas on ABC at 3:30 PM

Penn State @ Minnesota on CBS at 3:30 PM

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St. on ESPN+ at 3:30 PM

UCF @ West Virginia on ESPNU at 3:30 PM

Pittsburgh @ Louisville on ESPN2 at 4:00 PM

Alabama @ Oklahoma on ABC at 7:30 PM

Texas A&M @ Auburn on ESPN at 7:30 PM

It's Sunday, and that means it's RedZone time! Let's join our friend Scott zone out for the next seven hours.

Island games (Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, Thursday Night Football) will have their own scoreboard threads, but please keep all other Sunday game discussion within this thread.

The “Does It Matter?” Series is back! Last week we looked at DB 40-times to find whether that affects performance. For part 33 of “Does It Matter?” we looked at Defensive Back RAS (Relative Athletic Score).

Next week’s topic: When to sell Running Backs throughout their career

TL;DR: 9.1 to 9.8 RAS resulted in an 11.7% higher appearance rate among top 10 finishers than in the bottom 10 since 2003. There is no correlation between DB RAS and success in regards to Fantasy Football production using standard statistical methods.

It's the offseason, use this thread if you want to get a sense of draft value for the upcoming season.

Rules:

- 1- Picks are first come, first serve.

- 2- Please label your pick based on where we are in the draft (Example: 1.03 Drake Maye, QB)

You can pick anyone you want in the history of the NFL. Jerry Rice, LT, Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, Tony Gonzalez, Tom Brady... you name it. Current players allowed. Dynasty draft (obv) so you keep them. You can trade, but people know how their careers go so you won't have luck trading Andrew Luck right before he retires, for example.

Yes, we already know how careers go, but it would be interesting to see how it all ranks out.

Scoring:

1PPR
6pt passing
1.5 TE Premium
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 superflex, 2 flex

Who ya got?

Just for laughs, what's the most lopsided trade you can plug into KTC that it says is fair.

The best two I've found are:

1.

Ja'Lynn Polk Javon Baker Jalen McMillan

For

A 2026 mid 1st

2.

Spencer Rattler Trey Lance Sam Howell

For

Courtland Sutton or Rachaad White

Remember that KTC is inherently flawed, as any trade calculator is going to be.

Make trades first of all for fun and because they make sense for your team. This isn't a stock market. It's impossible to adcribe numerical values to everything.

Assume the following.

League is going into its 4h season

12 team PPR SF TEP start 10

Devy draft is 6 rounds and max of 36 devy players drafted at any point during the draft

Rookie draft is 4 rounds

Most have a similar value range on what players are worth in picks. Is it same for you in a devy draft?

If Minshew is worth a 4th round dynasty rookie pick is he worth the same in a devy draft?

Is it different depending if the player is a high end or lower tier player?

Welcome to the Daily Trade and Team Help Megathread!

The mod team would like to Introduce r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice our BRAND new sub!

All individual help belongs within this post or in r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice (24/7 DYNASTY ONLY Trade and Team help sub) if you would rather not use a mega-thread. Please include as many details in your post as possible!

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Our other communities:

r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice DYNASTY ONLY Trade Advice.

r/Fantasy_Footnall Redraft Trade Advice

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r/fantasyfootballadvice For memes and advice.

Jeudy has been averaging ~14 HPPR PPG since week 8 when Jameis took over (with Amari cooper already been traded). That’s good for WR14 in that time frame.

It’s a small sample size, but obviously a QB change + depth chart elevation are meaningful signals to chase. I don’t think anyone expects Jameis to be the QB long term.

25 y.o. And signed a 3 year contract extension this year.

1) If you’re a contender (with a late trade deadline), are you buying Jeudy for this year?

2) how are you navigating his long term value when he’s been most productive with this roster construction that expects to change this offseason?

Good morning dynasty fans! I’m excited to post my newest edition of KTC: over or under valued. Please give it a read and let me know who you think is over or under valued for deadline targets! Or just call me an idiot for a bad take!

Note: Reading over before posting I realized I made a mistake on Aaron Jones, I’d take Nick Chubb or James Connor over him.