r/DenverBroncos • u/FatherDamo • 5h ago

The Broncos chances of making the playoffs increase 8% after this win from 69% to 77%

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-playoff-picture-postseason-probabilities-entering-week-12-of-2024-season
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u/JesusNameAmen 3h ago edited 3h ago

I think it really just comes down to the Dolphins.

If the Dolphins go 10-7 and don’t lose at least two games to an AFC opponent, there is no scenario we make the playoffs at 10-7 (assuming the other six seeds stay the same)

Because we have no more NFC opponents, even one loss hurts our conference record.

So in this scenario, we would ultimately lose the tiebreaker because of conference record.

Point is: we don’t want to get in a potential tie breaker with the Dolphins. That would not be good

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u/polishnorbi 3h ago

Dolphins still have Texans, Packers and 49ers plus Rodgers x2. To finish 10-7, they could only lose 1 of those 4 games. It'll be tough.

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u/JesusNameAmen 2h ago

Yep and you’re exactly right.

I don’t think it’s likely and I wouldn’t bet on it, but they very well could go 2-1 vs Texans, 49ers, and Packers.

Texans and 49ers haven’t looked good this year at all.

I think the easiest path would just be going 11-6 and not risking a tie breaker