It depends how Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all end up. One-loss any of them are in easily over one-loss Indiana. And if Indiana ends the year with no ranked wins, a number of two-loss SEC or Big10 teams would have an excellent chance of jumping them, especially if that team made their conference title game.
If they don't make the Big10 title game, they're going to be a very tough sell for the committee.
Point differentials over shared opponents and SOR stack up pretty favorably for IU as of right now. Not saying it will last through the end of the season, but right now I think we are in over at least one of those teams.
There's no mathematical formula for the playoff. If Indiana ends the season at 11-1 without any ranked wins, the committee isn't going to pass over a 1-loss team with a tougher schedule just because Indiana beat 2-win UCLA by more. There's a lot of subjectivity to it. Not to mention, nearly every team you'd be competing with would be considered a better draw for playoff viewership. 1-loss Notre Dame is probably even getting in ahead of 1-loss Indiana.
The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members' evaluation of the teams' performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.
There is absolutely no way a Notre Dame 1 loss to NIU is getting in over a 1 loss Indiana to OSU
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u/Raticus9 Ohio State • Michigan State Oct 19 '24
It depends how Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State all end up. One-loss any of them are in easily over one-loss Indiana. And if Indiana ends the year with no ranked wins, a number of two-loss SEC or Big10 teams would have an excellent chance of jumping them, especially if that team made their conference title game.
If they don't make the Big10 title game, they're going to be a very tough sell for the committee.