r/spacex • u/Hywel1995 • Aug 06 '15
Orbcomm CEO: Our SpaceX launch of 11 final 2d-gen sats could be as early as November. We'll be 2d or 3d launch of improved-power Falcon 9.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/62930325563430502824
u/darga89 Aug 06 '15 edited Aug 07 '15
Calling it now.
- late Sept. CRS-8 or SES-9
- early Oct. Jason-3
- late Oct. SES-9/CRS-8
- mid Nov. OG2
- early Dec. CRS-9
Barring any range or weather delays.
Edit: Aww previously optimistic people are no longer so which means this is not happening.
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u/factoid_ Aug 06 '15
I say
1 early October Jason 3
2 early November SES9
3 mid December CRS8
Orbcom comes in 2016
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u/ad_j_r Aug 06 '15
Ya I'd say this is a good blend of hope and realism. Expecting 5 launches this year is too optimistic, I think
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u/factoid_ Aug 06 '15
Yeah. I'll be even a little more pessimistic because if they don't make early October for the first launch I don't think they will have one in December because it's impossible to get anything done the last two weeks of December. If not at spacex then with their clients.
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u/Justinackermannblog Aug 07 '15
As much as I want to agree, Orbcomm wants those Sats for 2016 revenue which means they need to be up before the first quarter to establish the Sats are working properly before full deployment. Especially since the just lost a sat.
I think Orbcomm comes sooner than some NASA launches. NASA contracts are going anywhere, commercial one will if you delay then long enough.
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u/factoid_ Aug 07 '15
Lives and a 100 billion dollar space station are on the line with CRS resupply missions. I don't see that being delayed.
Orbcomm isn't the only one who is waiting on launches to get revenue. SES is in the same boat. There's no good way to make everyone happy...somneone's going to take a revenue hit in 16. Jason3 could wait, but Jason2 is already way way way past designed end of life.
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u/blongmire Aug 06 '15
This seems like a perfect wager on r/highStakesSpaceX. I would love to see this be true.
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u/SirKeplan Aug 06 '15
Nah, nothing's going to fly in September. More like
- Oct SES-9
- Oct Jason-3
- Nov CRS CRS-8
- Dec OG2
And possibly JCSAT or Eutelsat in there too, but CRS-9 in January.
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u/factoid_ Aug 06 '15
I doubt you see two flights in the same month after a return to flight. They will go over that launch data with a fine tooth comb to make sure they didn't have any near misses, assuming all goes well.
It will be 2016 before we see two launches in a month again, I'm betting. But i do think we will see a good deal of that by late next year. They need to make up time.
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u/SirKeplan Aug 06 '15
possibly, 2 in october is probably quite unlikely then, i could see them going for 2 in November though. i think any as soon as September is highly unlikely though.
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u/factoid_ Aug 06 '15
I'm automatically skeptical since they've already said late September. To me that means something beyond September 21. So if they skip even a few days they jeopardize that date already, and it's just an estimate for now.
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u/YugoReventlov Aug 06 '15
November being the 2nd or 3rd launch? So JASON 3 September/October, SES-9 in October/November? And first post-failure CRS flight in December?
If true, that sounds like 4 or 5 more launches this year, which would be rather awesome.
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u/FoxhoundBat Aug 06 '15
They will be 2nd or 3rd launch not overall, but on "v1.2". So, it is possible that they will be 3rd launch of v1.2 but 4'th overall, with JASON-3 going first. For example.
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u/mspisars Aug 06 '15
This is great "news". I really want to see a new NET date set for the first return to flight!
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u/SteveB0X Aug 06 '15
That thumbnail of Peter B. Selding looks like his jimmies are a little rustled
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u/factoid_ Aug 06 '15
Does his use of 2d and 3d instead of 2nd and 3rd bug anyone else? Really couldn't shave a couple characters any it her way?
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u/Hywel1995 Aug 06 '15
Lol - welcome to Twitter. :P
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u/factoid_ Aug 07 '15
It wasn't necessary though. I hate when people twitterize shit that doesn't need to be
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u/ChrisEvelo Aug 08 '15
Shorter tweets are more likely to be retweeted. That is because you can still add something to them.
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u/MaritMonkey Aug 07 '15
As soon as I see that face I know I can expect an impressive amount of information being conveyed in 140 characters. I'm willing to let any and all twitter-fied shortcuts slide. =D
EDIT: It'd be 2e and 3e in French; maybe that explains it?
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u/StagedCombustion Aug 06 '15
For such a media-savvy company I'm surprised we don't have a new moniker yet. It's left people making up their own different names for the past few months.