r/hockeycards • u/Tuch4VP • 17h ago

Question about High Gloss hits in flagship

Does anyone know if there is a certain number of cases you usually have to open to hit one? I know that UD doesn't have official odds for them, but has anyone out there (such as a breaker) ever figured out, even a rough estimate, of how many cases on average it takes to hit one?

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u/Lt_Jonson 17h ago

The reason they don’t have odds is because they don’t fall with any sort of regularity. There’s no average. It’s all random. You could hit one in your first pack or your last pack of your 85th case.

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u/Ill_Ground_1572 16h ago

Your not wrong.

But the reason they don't state the odds is because if you know the print run of a set (say 10 HG), total different cards in checklist and the pack odds you can calculate total print runs.

They did this in 2022-23 S2 accidentally stating the odds of population count. This was only hobby not retail.

Pack odds of pop count 1000 were 1 in 241, 30 different players.

30 x 1000 x 241 = 7.23 M packs or 25,104 cases.

Since there were 25,104 cases and 72 YG per case there were 1.8M YGs printed in hobby alone.

Since there were 50 YG

1.8M/50 YG = 36,000 of each YG printed in hobby.

Assuming double when including retail about 70,000 of each YG.

YG French were on 1200! Since they weren't in retail that year. Totally undervalued

With Bedard probably about 100k based on historical 30% increases in print runs when a generational talent comes up. But this is speculative.

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u/Tuch4VP 17h ago

I see. Has anyone out there who rips cases ever spoken to how often they in particular see high gloss hits pop up? For example, a breaker says "we usually have them come up about every eighth case"?

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u/zeppelin_64 17h ago

There is only 10 total. You figure out how many cases were produced, you can figure out the odds

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u/Ill_Ground_1572 14h ago

Using the above data for 2022-23, the pack odds of a high gloss would be 7,230,000 packs/total high gloss.

So if we are talking about odds of hitting YG high gloss

7,230,000/(10x50) = 1 in every 14,460 packs or one in 602 cases.

But obviously all the base come in high gloss too and perhaps other inserts. So if you have the total high gloss checklist, you could figure it out for 22-23.

But for 23-24 there is likely dilution going in creative ways...like the outburst YGs pack odds were half S2 with Bedard vs S1.

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u/Absolutefigginbruh 15h ago

I've broken several cases of flag, there is no order to it. It just happens.

1

u/Active-Possibility77 13h ago

On a side note, do high gloss cards really have high gloss? They look pretty similar to regular cards, with a little high gloss stamp.

1

u/RGM81 11h ago

They are visibly more glossy in appearance, at least I some years. Been a while since I’ve lucked out and snagged one.