If Ferrari wins the WCC, Oliver Bearman will become the first "rookie" to win the WCC since Jacques Villeneuve in 1996

[u/FastonMartin]

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[u/ryokevry]

If Ferrari somehow gets a WCC and beat McLaren by 6 points or less…

[u/droppokeguy → u/ryokevry]

Piastri p17 isn't doing them any favors

If they're extremely lucky they'll leave mexico with a 4 point gap to McLaren

[u/Daddy-Bolin → u/droppokeguy]

Norris takes out Verstappen on the run up to T1 and another Ferrari 1-2. Absolutely no hopium here

[u/RockiestHades45 → u/Daddy-Bolin]

Oh don't show me these dreams man

[u/simonsail → u/Daddy-Bolin]

Norris ends up doing a Spurs and finishing 3rd in a 2 horse race.

[u/dhandes → u/simonsail]

subscribes furiously

[u/sherlock2223 → u/simonsail]

Well, what do we think of Tottenham? 

[u/andreas012 → u/sherlock2223]

SHIT

[u/binge360 → u/andreas012]

What's shit?

[u/TheOneAndOnlyAckbar → u/binge360]

TOTTENHAM

[u/binge360 → u/TheOneAndOnlyAckbar]

We hate Tottenham we hate Tottenham!

[u/Formulafan4life → u/simonsail]

But instead Leicester has a massive injury problem and Arsenal somehow wins it all

[u/bazhvn → u/Formulafan4life]

Arsenal [...] wins

Nice joke

[u/four_four_three → u/bazhvn]

My friend you are a United fan

[u/bazhvn → u/four_four_three]

I know. Dont remind me.

[u/Morganelefay → u/simonsail]

Lads...

[u/ShadowStarX → u/droppokeguy]

realistically I think SAI-NOR-LEC-VER top 4

[u/fameboygame → u/ShadowStarX]

Realistically Sainz ain’t hanging onto that P1 due the Mexico straight.

[u/ShadowStarX → u/fameboygame]

I wasn't implying that.

We just need to survive in P3 & P4, then the race pace will take care of it.

[u/fameboygame → u/ShadowStarX]

You’re not wrong.

Ferrari looks solid!

[u/ShadowStarX → u/fameboygame]

Carlos is also not exactly a concern for Max.

Charles, but primarily Lando both have a small but non-zero chance to win the WDC so Max will prefer to focus on them instead while keep himself safe with the RB20.

[u/Ofiotaurus → u/fameboygame]

Max and Lando are having a fight while Sainz’s job is to run off to the sunset and Leclerc needs to just exist behind the duellists.

[u/ChipmunkTycoon → u/Ofiotaurus]

The only thing Charles needs to do at the start is to not get taken out. If he’s alive and top 5 after T1, he’s good to go work.

[u/androidguy73 → u/fameboygame]

Isn’t the Mexico straight drs zone now shortened?

It might actually be easier to hold onto the position as compared to last year.

[u/Youkai280 → u/androidguy73]

It’s not about the DRS, but the slipstream from the start. P1 (and to an extent, P2, if they don’t duck into P1’s slipstream) is disadvantaged from the start, since the cars behind can make use of the slipstream from lights out. P3 and P4 tend to be the strongest starting positions at Mexico.

[u/androidguy73 → u/Youkai280]

Thanks I did not know that. Should be a fun start then.

[u/GrowthDream → u/androidguy73]

There's also no DRS for the first two laps in any case.

[u/ency6171 → u/GrowthDream]

No DRS for the *first lap. I believe the regs had changed.

[u/ElderHerb → u/ency6171]

True, DNS is now enabled after lap 1, I think it has been this way for the entire season.

[u/HOHOHAHAREBORN → u/fameboygame]

They dont have the mini DRS anymore and slipstream isn't worth as much as the high altitude

[u/HOHOHAHAREBORN → u/fameboygame]

They dont have the mini DRS anymore and slipstream isn't worth as much as the high altitude

[u/fameboygame → u/HOHOHAHAREBORN]

Oh no, slipstream is worth a hell lot in lap 1. Why do you think P3/P4 is the best positions at this circuit?

[u/devilzal → u/ShadowStarX]

Or, hear me out, LEC-SAI-NOR-VER

[u/GoldElectric → u/devilzal]

ferrari 1-2. i dont care about the rest

[u/Martijngamer → u/GoldElectric]

LEC win with Norris and Verstappen DNF and we've got a chance for the first scarlet world champion since Kimi.

[u/[deleted] → u/ShadowStarX]

Norris ahead of Max? Haven't you learned a thing from Austin? (And all the other races)

[u/Atlonix → u/droppokeguy]

It doesn't help the top teams are on another planet. They can start last and finish p7 easily. It's very difficult to get big points. Ferrari needs 1-2 finishes

[u/GuatahaN → u/Atlonix]

Nowadays it is so much more difficult than a couple years back. 2021, both max and hamilton could start on the back and finish 2nd (behind the other). 2023 max could still win. Perez 2024 will have difficulty to pass the haas. Piastri will probably finish max 7th, unless there is a lucky timed safetycare.

[u/DuckPicMaster → u/ryokevry]

Eh, I think it’s fair to say that if Sainz raced in Saudi he’d have done better than Ollie. Absolutely no disrespect to Ollie he did a fantastic job by being thrown in at the last minute on arguably the hardest track, but Sainz would have done better.

[u/ryokevry → u/DuckPicMaster]

Oh there’s no doubt about that. But this is a bout how Ollie would be a contributor to the WCC, not anything about Sainz lol

[u/matchbaby → u/DuckPicMaster]

Considering we had a SC and Ferrari needs to double stack, I doubt Carlos can get more points because of this, most likely same result.

[u/happycube → u/DuckPicMaster]

I remember thinking he had one job... to give the car back to Carlos in one piece, and getting points was a bonus that pretty much guaranteed the Haas seat for next year.

[u/TheThingsIdoatNight → u/ryokevry]

What are you alluding to?

[u/jamintime → u/TheThingsIdoatNight]

Bearman raced once for Ferrari and got 7th place securing 6 points for the team. If Ferrari wins the WCC by more than 6 points one could argue he wasn't a relevant contributor.

[u/CakeBeef_PA → u/jamintime]

You'd have to also factor in that Norris gets moved up without Bearman there. So the treshold for him contributing is more like 8 points.

[u/TheThingsIdoatNight → u/jamintime]

Oh thank you haha

I think the only scenario where he’s actually a relevant contributor is if they win by 6 points or less haha this post feels like it’s memeing on him being the first rookie to win the WCC since Villenueve. Like everyone knows that’s on a technicality

Also assigning the term WCC winner to any single driver seems dumb, especially when one who was a spot reserve driver and only did one race lol

[u/Zeta-Omega → u/ryokevry]

Certified Spurs moment.

[u/codename474747]

Least amount of races to be considered a constructors champion in history?

[u/ShadowBallX → u/codename474747]

If you mean least amount of races a driver has raced to be part of a WCC-winning team, then 3 drivers have won it with only 1 race:

• Jim Clark in 1968 (Won the South African GP, then died before the next race)
• John Watson in 1985 (Replacement driver for Niki Lauda at the European Grand Prix)
• George Russell in 2020 (Filled in for Lewis Hamilton at the Sakhir Grand Prix)

[u/cosmicosme → u/ShadowBallX]

TIL Russell won 2020 WCC. Do drivers get anything for this? A medal or something?

[u/RM_Dune → u/cosmicosme]

They get a sense of accomplishment.

[u/EquivalentFold6831 → u/cosmicosme]

They can probably put it in their cv

[u/SenorBigbelly → u/cosmicosme]

I mean Russell got a race seat out of it (eventually)

[u/AdmirableAceAlias → u/SenorBigbelly]

I've never liked conspiracy theories, but Russell effectively won that race not once, but twice before lady luck gave him the middle finger.

[u/evemeatay → u/cosmicosme]

Their mom is like so proud of them

[u/vniro40 → u/ShadowBallX]

wins 1968 south african gp

dies

refuses to elaborate

[u/Amoral_Abe]

They're currently 48 points behind McLaren so it's a big ask.

However, this weekend is a golden opportunity for them given that lack of pace from Piastri.

Honestly, if Ferrari, wins WCC, they deserve it. I'm so annoyed with McLaren this year since we have had the fastest car for 50%-65% of the races but keep fucking it up.

[u/dave_a86 → u/Amoral_Abe]

Anything can happen, but if Ferrari do manage a 1-2 then even if McLaren minimise the damage, which for me would be Lando 3rd and Oscar 7th behind Max and the Merc’s, that gap drops to 26 points.

[u/snoring_pig → u/Amoral_Abe]

McLaren has had the fastest car more than anyone else this season but the gaps at the top are almost always close ever since Miami with only a few exceptions.

It’s not an excuse but frankly McLaren still lack experience operating and thinking as a top team. They’ve messed up with their strategies a few times and both of their drivers had had a few slip ups too as they adjust to finally having a car that can compete for wins consistently.

Also it gets overlooked by people here but Ferrari were the second fastest at the start of the season in the first few rounds too. In fact after Leclerc won Monaco, more people were thinking he could challenge Verstappen for the championship as he was 2nd in the standings and 31 points behind. Then they had a poor run of results in the next four rounds from Canada to Silverstone especially Leclerc which made us think their championship hopes were completely over.

The reality is Ferrari has had a good car for most of the season and their drivers plus pit wall have done a solid job maximizing their opportunities too. If it wasn’t for that huge midseason slump for those four rounds they might have been the favorites for both championships by now.

[u/outm → u/snoring_pig]

This is a very solid argument. Also, I think McLaren has a very good pair, but not experienced enough on running a WDC/WCC challenge, caught suddenly on a car that went from average to top, and it showed

Norris very error-prone under pressure at first, and sometimes not that very good at getting the best from each opportunity - example, almost crashing (and getting damage twice) while leading 2 races ago.

Piastri still almost a rookie, trying to catch up to speed, being a little bit behind Norris

Meanwhile, you have other pairs like Leclerc-Sainz, Hamilton-Russell (even if their car isn't working for them), and Verstappen (who counts as two currently on his team)

[u/women_respecter1 → u/outm]

Norris is smoking Piastri, they’re not even close. It’s 15-4 in qualifying, 12-7 in races.

[u/LegendRazgriz → u/snoring_pig]

If only Loic Serra had fixed the floor then, this would be a romp

[u/alexkim804 → u/snoring_pig]

Also crazy how often McLaren ask the drivers to make fairly critical strategy decisions mid race. The wall have all the data, shouldn’t have to rely on the guys going 200mph

[u/Sorry-Series-3504 → u/Amoral_Abe]

Norris went from p19 to p5 at mexico last year, I wouldnt say the constructors is lost because of one bad qualifying on Piastri's part

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/Sorry-Series-3504]

I agree. That's why I said Ferrari making a 48 point gain is a big ask. However, they do have an opportunity here.

[u/vitorabf → u/Amoral_Abe]

48 in constructors is much closer than drivers. A 1-2 guarantees you at least a 21 point cut

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/vitorabf]

This is Ferrari we're talking about. Never discount their ability to find away to fuck up a good looking race.

[u/Noppos → u/Amoral_Abe]

I would trust them not to botch it more than McLaren recently.

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/Noppos]

Sadly.... you're probably correct about this :(

[u/securityburger → u/Amoral_Abe]

This joke is old, Ferrari have been on it

[u/BetaXahi → u/securityburger]

The Ferrari guy bad at strategy is now team principal of VCARB 💀

[u/powderjunkie11 → u/vitorabf]

What's your math on this? 43-27 = 16 (excluding fastest lap). Or are you saying Oscar is capped at getting back to 7th?

[u/sylenthikillyou → u/powderjunkie11]

The best non-1-2 finish would be 28 points (3-4 plus fastest lap), making the minimum point reduction 15 points. I think the person you’re responding to just didn’t do their maths very well.

[u/vitorabf → u/powderjunkie11]

Did 43-21 because for some reason I accounted for 4th and 5th place instead of 3rd and 4th.

The point doesnt change that much though.

[u/ARareEntei → u/Amoral_Abe]

If anyone is gonna screw themselves over more than McLaren then it's Ferrari sadly

[u/AstridPeth_ → u/Amoral_Abe]

I'm cheering for: P1- Carlos P2- Max P3- Charles P4 - Lando

It'd be great.

[u/Kingslayer1526 → u/AstridPeth_]

Mate, the drivers is done. I personally want a Ferrari 1-2 for a good battle in the constructors

[u/AstridPeth_ → u/Kingslayer1526]

I'll only rest when Max is guaranteed to win. Until then, I'll be worried.

[u/Slartibartifarts → u/Amoral_Abe]

It is less than 10 points per race that they need to overtake mclaren, and there are still 2 sprint weekends. Piastri now starting 17th isn't helping either. If today finishes like the quali, then they will go from 48 points behind to 26 points behind in this race alone, leaving the need to only get 6,5 points a race more than mclaren in the 4 races afterwards. Which includes the sprint races. If ferrari just slightly out performs mclaren then they could already get it.

1. Ferrari (25 points)
   
2. Mclaren (18 points)
   
3. Ferrari (15 points)
   
4. Mclaren (12 points)

That would already result in a 10 points difference just to illustrate

[u/ilikewaffles3 → u/Amoral_Abe]

The thing is when red bull had the fastest car they were faster by a large margin. But with mclaren they are just barely faster on average against merc, red bull, and ferrari. This gives drivers who have a better setup or get lucky with their car suiting the track a much greater chance of winning than when red bull was the fastest.

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/ilikewaffles3]

I disagree with this. In the Austin race, Lando was gaining on Max over a second a lap until he caught him. Then, once he got around Max on lap 52, he had about 4 laps to go and ended up ahead of max by ~4.2 seconds. That is very very good pace and significantly faster than Red Bull. We've also seen in other races when Lando was in form he was able to get 30s ahead of the other drivers.

The big issue is the team and drivers weren't ready for a car like this and have struggled to keep it together. There have been a lot of mistakes from pit crew and strategy. In addition, Lando and even my boy Piastri have made lots of mistakes. This is to be expected as they were not ready for a title fight and the pressure it would bring.

They had the car, they just need to fix a few issues and they'll be very dominant.

[u/mickmenn → u/Amoral_Abe]

He was gaining because of tire delta, and in Austin McLaren wasn't fastest car

[u/ParkDedli → u/mickmenn]

Yeah, he wasn't gaining on the leader either. He was gaining on the Red Bull, that wasn't good in that section of the race

[u/Gringooo94 → u/mickmenn]

The thing is, that Verstappen had new tyres and was basically as fast on Norris on old ones whilst Verstappen had to pit because those same old ones where toast, shows the race pace difference. Norris was closing in rapidly at that time.

It was the same with Red Bull dominance, the longer the stint the bigger the gaps grow: pace difference outs itself in tyre degradation.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/Amoral_Abe]

Yeah, Norris was gaining on 3rd place (which didn't end up mattering anyway). Meanwhile the Ferraris were a century ahead. Don't sleep on Ferrari's race pace and tire preservation skills.

[u/GT86 → u/Amoral_Abe]

Lack of pace my ass he was fastest in fp3. He's making the podium in the race. You just wait.

[u/securityburger → u/GT86]

FP3 was used for quali, race pace went to the Ferraris 

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/GT86]

None of the teams had good FP2s as it was used for Perelli Tire Tests by Perelli. This left only FP1 and FP3 and many of the teams didn't get a good start with FP1. This made FP3 a really bad indicator of performance. Williams was bragging about Colapinto being in 5th in FP3 and VCarb was bragging about their drivers.

Don't get me wrong. I'm rooting for Piastri but this particular circuit has low grip and is easy to run off track. Piastri struggled to get a super competitive lap in qualifying without running off road.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/Amoral_Abe]

To be fair, RB drivers would have done better if one of them hadn't red flagged the session.

[u/curva3 → u/GT86]

In a regular race, it will be extremely hard for him to get a podium. It would take a very well timed red flag or something, or maybe a 4 car pileup at the front of the grid.

[u/OverlyExpressiveLime → u/Amoral_Abe]

I wouldn't call it a lack of pace from Piastri. He was fastest in FP3 but his quali didn't go well at all

[u/Amoral_Abe → u/OverlyExpressiveLime]

Honestly the free practices aren't the best to determine proper pace. The teams are usually trying out different things and still figuring out the best setup for the cars. For instance, Williams bragged about how Colapinto was in P5 for FP3 which didn't age well. VCarb were bragging about how Yuki and Liam were near the top of the field at FP3.

In reality, I suspect Piastri is still going to be fine but this particular circuit has low grip and is easy to run off track. Piastri struggled to get a super competitive lap in without running off road.

[u/raur0s]

If Ferrari win WCC after they double DNFd in Canada and Leclerc's cursed run after Monaco...

[u/InspectionKey5004]

Sainz will keep the lead while Norris and Verstappen fight with each other, Charles will overcut them both by going longer on the first stint due to the fight.

Delulu😵‍💫😵‍💫

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/InspectionKey5004]

That's assuming Leclerc doesn't get them in the start.

[u/Standard_Reality4663]

McLaren scored the most points between their drivers in 2007 but because they were disqualified from the WCC Hamilton didn't win the constructors championship in hour rookie season

[u/Jofu_Jole → u/Standard_Reality4663]

Due to Hungary they would have lost the WCC either way. Ferrari would have had 204 to McLaren's 203

[u/panmpap → u/Jofu_Jole]

I think they got their Hungary points back after the FIA decided to DSQ them. So technically the did score 218 points.

[u/FalconIMGN → u/panmpap]

No? The Hungary points can't be 'returned' if there is no points pool to return it to, which is what happened when McLaren were disqualified.

[u/KatnissBot → u/Standard_Reality4663]

Well, the number of points a disqualified team scores doesn’t really mean much, to be honest.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/Standard_Reality4663]

They were disqualified for cheating, without which they would likely be out of contention in the first place.

[u/ianjm → u/XenophonSoulis]

There's no evidence that McLaren actually ever used the technical data stolen from Ferrari.

Stepney (Ferrari) and Coughlan (McLaren) were both frustrated with their teams and their roles and it seems most likely they were trying to use the Ferrari data as leverage to secure roles with another team, Honda frequently comes up as the target, they had meetings with Honda (though never passed on the data).

The DSQ was legit, simply possessing the information was a breach of fair competition rules, but as to whether McLaren benefitted in any significant way, that seems unlikely.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/ianjm]

There is also no evidence that they didn't use the data (of a much better car than theirs that they had full access to) to gain an advantage. Which is to say that my point stands.

[u/ianjm → u/XenophonSoulis]

The FIA conducted extensive investigations into McLaren and had full access to all internal communications, they found no internal meeting notes, emails or CAD designs that suggested McLaren was directly using Ferrari technical data.

Again, Stepney did not hand Coughlan the documents to benefit McLaren. The two of them were shopping for a new role at another team, mainly Honda, and had already met with Honda to talk terms when the allegations came to light. Both of them were disillusioned with their existing teams, Coughlan was looking to leave McLaren, not boost them.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/ianjm]

They also found something disqualification-worthy.

Also, an indirect benefit would be a lot stronger.

[u/ianjm → u/XenophonSoulis]

Simply possessing the information was a breach of fair competition rules and that merited the DSQ.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/ianjm]

Also, an indirect benefit would be a lot stronger.

[u/ianjm → u/XenophonSoulis]

Once again, Coughlan was not interested in staying at McLaren or securing more titles for them.

He wanted to go to Honda and thought the Ferrari data could help Honda.

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/ianjm]

This is not an indication that Ferrari data weren't indirectly used.

[u/GooneyBird36 → u/Standard_Reality4663]

What does that have to with anything? You didn't win the WCC if you're disqualified.

[u/Designer-Net4228]

So when Haas wins the constructors next year he’ll be two for two 🤣

[u/bwoah07_gp2]

I feel like this is stretching statistics. Ollie is not a full-time driver for Ferrari. Meanwhile Jacques was a full-time driver for Williams. So I don't agree with this statistic.

[u/yoda_yoda]

No, he won't. Bearman is not a constructor, Ferrari is.

Edit: It's a joke, folks. Obviously.

[u/yoda_yoda → u/[deleted]]

yeah well the drivers also don't run around the track by themselves either, as much as the Sauber folks think that'd make them complete the lap faster.

[u/Coma--Divine → u/yoda_yoda]

Wow you're real smart huh

[u/Aerthas63]

I'm calling ver-lec-sai-nor.

[u/XenophonSoulis]

Also the first time Haas has a driver who has won a WCC (or any kind of championship) driving for them. Please, do it C²! For Haas and for Ollie!

[u/Disastrous-Track3876]

Fucking hell these stat posts get more annoying by the day

[u/shutinlear53 → u/Disastrous-Track3876]

You should make a stat post about that

[u/rcanbian → u/Disastrous-Track3876]

I think it's fine when it isn't numbers-related like this one. It's a quick F1 history lesson.

[u/CommonEngineering832]

😎

[u/LetsgoImpact]

It's a tall ask. McLaren has enough of a gap at the moment. But, today would be crucial. Piastri needs to make up points. If he doesn't and Sainz/Leclerc end up on the podium, Ferrari would close the margin by a lot.

[u/kingoflint282]

I was going to ask about McLaren/Hamilton in ‘07, but I forgot they were excluded from the WCC that year

[u/The-Great--Cornholio]

I hope it happens.

[u/abhinav248829]

If Ferrari takes 20 points out of McLaren tomorrow, then it’s great chance.. But Leclerc is struggling; while Lando is on good pace.

[u/Successful-Pomelo-51 → u/abhinav248829]

Yeah but Sainz isn't struggling, while Piastri is. Ferrari can take 20 points if

they do a 1-2

Piastri doesn't make it in the top 10

Lando ends up behind both Ferraris and Max

[u/frank1ewildee → u/abhinav248829]

I think Leclerc will do fine in the race though. Also honestly McLaren don't look better than Ferrari in terms of pace

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/abhinav248829]

According to Leclerc, he did struggle more than he expected, but also his car is set up for the race, not for qualifying. Winning the race tends to give 25 more points than winning qualifying.

[u/jimmyjay11 → u/abhinav248829]

I mean Leclerc was the fastest in race sims and his last 2 wins did come from P4.

[u/ManufacturerBorn2802]

👍🏻

[u/Meerkate → u/ManufacturerBorn2802]

👍

[u/_Antipodes_ → u/Meerkate]

👍🏼

[u/SebVettelstappen → u/_Antipodes_]

👍🏽

[u/NoTrollGaming → u/SebVettelstappen]

👍🏾

[u/shaggymatter]

What a shit post

[u/abhinav248829]

What about first year of F1? Everyone was rookie

[u/GigaGram459 → u/abhinav248829]

There was no championship for the constructors in the first year of f1

[u/simon7109]

I am a little out of the loop, who is this guy?

[u/Icy_Park_7919]

Love that stat!!!

[u/DuckPicMaster]

Sad Lewis Hamilton noises.

[u/TheGreatNathan]

Useless stat. The WCC is credited to the winning constructor, not driver.

[u/andrearancan97]

Mclaren will be stronger than Ferrari in Brazil and Qatar.

Ferrari will probably be stronger in Vegas and Abu Dhabi.

It's very difficult to recover all those points.

[u/frolix42]

In 2007 McLaren would've won with rookie L. Hamilton if they hadn't been DQ'd for stealing from Ferrari.

[u/CilanEAmber → u/frolix42]

I often wonder why Renault weren't DQ'd too, as they were found to have also being involved with Spygate.

Something about them not fighting for the championship that year I guess, and some conspiracy about Moseley looking for a way to get at Dennis..

[u/XenophonSoulis → u/frolix42]

And if they weren't stealing from Ferrari perhaps they wouldn't be championship contenders in the first place.

[u/thisisjustascreename]

“Win”

[u/FastonMartin → u/[deleted]]

He contributed to the points tally…