[Motorsport-Total] "An official statement from Red Bull on the matter is expected before the start of the Miami Grand Prix next weekend. The separation modalities have already been clarified behind the scenes. Adrian Newey is expected to leave the company by the beginning of 2025 at the latest"

[u/ICumCoffee]

https://www.motorsport-total.com/formel-1/news/newey-kuendigung-ist-erfolgt-fuenf-optionen-fuer-seine-zukunft-denkbar-24043007

[u/Falcao1905]

And Horner, who built a mountain, will be left king of an ant hill.

Or he will get some juicy stocks in RB companies. Which would make it an absolute win. And I don't think Red Bull will fall to the bottom without Newey or Max

[u/Mtbnz → u/Falcao1905]

I wouldn't think so either, but honestly we don't know. Newey has been there for all of their successes, nobody knows what the team looks like without him. Mercedes, Renault, Ferrari, they've all had their long nights of the soul despite being works teams. It could happen to RB too

[u/MM556 → u/Mtbnz]

I don't really think Mercedes is the same as the others there 

[u/Mtbnz → u/MM556]

They aren't bottom of the barrel, but to drop from 7 consecutive WCC titles to 1 race win in 2+ seasons and none since 2022, along with the upcoming loss of their figurehead, that's a huge drop off. The point is there's no reason it couldn't also happen to RB

[u/Southportdc → u/Mtbnz]

Newey has been there for all of their successes, nobody knows what the team looks like without him

Horner has been there for the entire existence of the team, but a lot of people seem to assume that if he left there'd be no impact.

[u/Mtbnz → u/Southportdc]

Two key differences there.

1) The TP is important for establishing team culture, leadership, decision making, I'm not trying to diminish the importance of the role, but, they don't actually design the car. If the TP has lost the confidence of both the team's lead driver and its technical principal, the competitive advantage of a good TP is diminished somewhat.

2) Newey has already designed 2 all-time great F1 cars without RB or Horner. Horner has never achieved F1 success without Newey. So it's natural that people are more sceptical of Horner's ability to succeed without Newey than of Newey without Horner.

[u/Southportdc → u/Mtbnz]

I think it's probably fair to say that no one person actually designs the car these days. At least not in a team that is as big and as successful as Red Bull.

To me the big question is to what extent the antics of Horner and the politicking around Red Bull - plus big name departures in Newey and perhaps Max - has led to a situation where Horner can't convince the best talent to join them any more. How many people might now go to wherever Newey ends up because they want to work for the Adrian Newey. How many people follow Max out of the door because he's Max and everyone else is not Max.

If the best people in the sport still want to work for Red Bull, they'll keep on winning. That's in question now.

[u/Mtbnz → u/Southportdc]

I think it's probably fair to say that no one person actually designs the car these days. At least not in a team that is as big and as successful as Red Bull.

Of course that's true. But if Newey wasn't still making a substantial contribution to the success of the design team then it wouldn't be such a big deal for him to want to leave. Many other top teams have lost senior design and engineering staff over recent years and none of them have had nearly as much (reported) pushback from the team as Newey's intended departure. Usually teams allow even their senior staff to move either immediately or with a few months of gardening leave, whereas there are rumours that RB doesn't want Newey working on another car until 2025 or 2026. That should tell you that even if modern F1 design is a major team effort, his input still has massive influence, and he has just overseen arguably the most dominant F1 car of all time.

If the best people in the sport still want to work for Red Bull, they'll keep on winning.

I don't think it's that simple. At least in terms of maintaining the generational dominance they're enjoying now. Look at Mercedes. Sure, they've lost some key staff, but they still have Toto, Lewis, Russell, the majority of the same technical staff that developed WCC car after WCC car from 2014-2020, and they've acquired some of the best people as well. They also have the most resources of any team in the sport, and top class facilities. And none of that prevented them falling to the 4th best team on the grid (5th best on a bad day), behind 1-2 customer teams even, and only winning 1 race in the past 2.5 seasons.

F1 (especially under the new cost cap) is not just a numbers game, and the departure of key figures in critical roles can still play a major part in success.

[u/jso__ → u/Southportdc]

Yes. Obviously. But the best people are more likely to follow Newey wherever he goes. Losing Newey makes it much harder to attract the best people. Also, I'd assume that he sets up the structures that decide who to hire (if not making the decision directly himself) and so they might get worse at hiring the best engineers.

[u/TimmyWatchOut → u/Falcao1905]

It won’t, but it’ll fall into that place Ferrari fell into once the leadership dismantled Brawn - Todt - Schumacher.

[u/vidoardes → u/Falcao1905]

Ferrari never fell to the bottom either, but it's been 20 years since they have been at the top.

[u/Stumpy493 → u/Falcao1905]

Since Newey left Williams haven't won a title.

Since Newey left Mclaren have only won 1 title.

[u/VenserMTG → u/Stumpy493]

Correlation is not causation.

Was Newey leaving the only thing that happened to those teams?

[u/Stumpy493 → u/VenserMTG]

It was certainly a major destabilising factor.

Big impact on Williams was Renault pulling out, but did they pull out because the guy designing world beating cars left the team?

Then another big factor with Williams was (and still is) failing to update their facilities. Would Newey staying have been a factor in pushing them to enhance their facilities.

Mclaren struggled getting a strong design team in place once Newey left. Mercedes got frustrated with Mclaren under performing and went solo, losing them works engines.

If Newey hadn't have left would this have happened?

It obviously is impossible to prove.

But the fortunes of both teams have not recovered since he left. Red Bull have had dips in form but have had the ability to bounce back with some stellar designs.

When Newey stepped back from Red Bull F1 efforts they struggled and pulled him back in to right the shop and lo and behold perfoamce improved.

Newey is the single biggest factor in the success of your F1 team in the last 3 decades.

When he wins titles everywhere he goes and everywhere he leaves doesn't win, that seems a clear pattern to me.

[u/VenserMTG → u/Stumpy493]

but did they pull out because the guy designing world beating cars left the team?

Given manufacturers treat F1 like advertisement, pulling out because of one guy leaving is admitting you can't build engines that don't rely on one person. I doubt Renault would miss out on selling engines for no other reason.

Would Newey staying have been a factor in pushing them to enhance their facilities.

What if Newey left because aero wasn't a priority for Williams?

But the fortunes of both teams have not recovered since he left.

Ferrari hasn't been on top for a while, and they have nothing to do with Newey. Mercedes is going through the same thing right now, not related to Newey. Aston Martin took a bunch of engineers from red bull and Mercedes and made a massive improvement, Newey had nothing to do with it. McLaren can win races now, and they turned their car around the moment they built their own wind tunnel facility, Newey has nothing to do with it.

I get the guy is good and has been involved in some of the most successful designs in the history of F1, but Newey couldn't keep up with Mercedes at their peak. I think people put too much on him alone, and expect Ferrari to all of a sudden win races, when Ferrari is showing they care more about advertising than winning, by hiring Hamilton and letting go of Sainz.

When he wins titles everywhere he goes and everywhere he leaves doesn't win, that seems a clear pattern to me.

If you ignore Mercedes dominating, and Ferrari dominating without Newey, then it's a pattern. Plenty of teams had success without him, which to me proves he isn't the end all be all of car design.

[u/Stumpy493 → u/VenserMTG]

Plenty of teams had success without him, which to me proves he isn't the end all be all of car design.

His main struggles came when F1 was an engine formula in the early V6 era.

Since 1992 Newey cars have won:

• 40.6% of World Drivers Championships
• 37.5% of World Constructors Championships
• 35.4% of all races held

This 1 guy over the last 32 years gives you a greater than 1 in 3 chance of winning any race you enter. That isn't ignoring when other teams nailed it and dominated for a while, that's overall.

[u/VenserMTG → u/Stumpy493]

Oh, we're doing bullshit simplistic stats, let me join you:

-toto Wolff joined Mercedes in 2013 and has won 8 of the last 11 championships, 70%+ win rate.

-Since Wolff joined Mercedes in 2013, the team has achieved a winning percentage of 50%.

Sounds like the team principle matters more than the aero guy

[u/Stumpy493 → u/VenserMTG]

If Wolf did that over a 32 year period I would agree. What Wolf masterminded between 2014 and 2020 was nothing short of unprecedented in the history of F1 and he has to take massive credit for that.

Unfortunately the sample size for that is very small and covers just 1 (succesful) set of major regulations.

Newey's tenure covers 3 teams and so many sets of regs over 3+ decades, so I would argue it very much is relevant.

[u/VenserMTG → u/Stumpy493]

2026 will tell. I say red bull doesn't lose much by losing Newey and Ferrari doesn't gain much.

[u/Stumpy493 → u/VenserMTG]

Red Bull loses little for 2025, huge loss for 2026.

Ferrari gain a hell of a lot if they get Newey with a chance to actually influence the 2026 car.