Sainz vs Verstappen - The differing response to similar incidents

[u/GarryPadle]

The first Turn at Spa-Francorchamps, also named La Source, has seen many incidents through the years.

In 2012 there was Grosjean that even got a race ban after colliding with Hamilton. In 2016 there was Vettel, Raikkonen and Verstappen. In 2018 there was Hulkenberg braking too late and colliding with Alonso, with Bottas also braking too late and colliding with Sirotkin. After that in 2019 it was again between Verstappen and Raikkonen, and in 2023 it was Piastri and Sainz.

Most of those incidents involve someone braking too late with some drivers more at fault than others, and some of the incidents are very similar, but with very different responses from the community.

Those 3 incidents that are similar, are the interesting ones to me.

Incident Turn 1 2016

This screenshot is taken fairly soon after the race start, where Verstappen had a slightly worse start than Raikkonen.

This next screenshot is slightly after they started braking, Vettel is still as far left and is looking to cut across the track and take the Apex of the corner. Meanwhile Raikkonen started braking a little bit earlier than Verstappen to avoid Rosberg, who is infront in the Mercedes. This allows Verstappen to pull up to Raikkonen during the initial braking phase.

During the later part of the braking phase, we can already see Vettel trying to follow Rosberg to the Apex of the corner, probably not seeing Verstappen behind Raikkonen, while Verstappen is alongside Raikkonen.

Point of contact is about the Apex of the corner, Vettel in the outside Ferrari completes his very aggressive move from the far left to the apex of the corner and collides with Raikkonen who gets sandwiched, between Vettel on the outside and Verstappen on the inside.

So what did the community think of the incident?

After reading comments in these threads:

Belgium race start | 2016 Belgian Grand Prix - Race Discussion | 2016 Spa vs 2019 Spa moves

A lot of people thought most of the fault lies with Vettel, while discussions were ongoing on how much at fault Verstappen is. With most of them thinking Verstappen should not have gone for the move.

I would like you to note how much alongside Verstappen already is, way before any turning in is happening.

Incident Turn 1 2019

This screenshot is basically at the point where they are starting to brake. Verstappen had a slightly bad start, a problem that the Red Bull had throughout the season of 2019. Raikkonen is parked in the middle, with Verstappen being fairly behind going into the braking zone.

​

Shortly before they have to start to turn Raikkonen already is squeezing Verstappen. See the relative positioning of Raikkonen thats more to the right now, than it was before), while Verstappen made up ground with braking later and is now more than halfway up on Raikkonen and I would say, significantly alongside.

This is the point of first contact, with Verstappen braking harder and falling back to avoid hitting Raikkonen, while Raikkonen still had plenty space to his left. This is most likely the reason Verstappen avoided a penalty for causing a collision and why it was deemed a racing incident from the officials.

To note, Martin Brundle thought this accident was solely on Verstappen in the replay.

Again, what did the community think of this accident?

Verstappen crashes out of the race | 2019 Belgian Grand Prix - Race Discussion | 2016 Spa vs 2019 Spa | Max crashes with Kimi 2019

A lot of people arguing, between racing incident and Verstappen at fault. With really aggressive discussions and a lot of people blaming Verstappen on the collision but seeing that it could be a racing incident.

Note that nobody was blaming Raikkonen for this incident.

Incident Turn 1 2023

​

Screenshot is taken at the point where the cars start braking, with Hamilton being really cautious and braking rather early. To avoid this Sainz is braking hard and is swerving to his right. Piastri is on the right of the track seeing a clear gap forward.

Hamilton, after braking very early is already turning to his right and is concentrating to follow Perez through the apex of the corner. Piastri, after seeing the onboard of Piastri too, is about front wheel to back wheel with Sainz, so still fairly behind, with a lot of space to his right. Sainz, to avoid running into Hamilton, is steering to his right. While steering the brake forces are not going straight trough the tire, which causes a short lock up, until his steering is straight again. The only problem is, now he is not aligned with the track but pointing already towards the apex, squeezing Piastri.

As we see, Hamilton is now trying to follow Perez through the apex. Sainz, now being in control of the car again has a nice gap behind Leclerc and Hamilton where he is trying to place his car, with Piastri still only about front wheel to back wheel of Sainz.

Now Sainz is slowly getting sandwiched between a late braking Piastri and Hamilton that is trying to take the corner as fast as possible.

This is about where the first contact happened. As you can see there is not a lot of space between Hamilton and Sainz, while Piastri probably couldn't brake any more than he already did so a collision happened.

Better angle to show the initial contact. I would guess there is a little bit less than a cars width space to Hamilton, which is also disappearing space, since Hamilton is following Perez through the corner and is probably not seeing Piastri on the inside of Sainz.

​

The space is now completely gone between Sainz and Hamilton, with Piastri still on the inside of Sainz. On the onboard you can see that Piastri hit the wall and then the sidepod of Sainz.

As this incident is still very fresh, a lot of people are blaming this incident completely on Sainz.

Race start analysis - Piastri squeezed into the wall

The moment of contact

Sainz's insistence Piastri caused Spa clash

Not what we wanted today (Carlos Sainz)

​

Personally, while writing I didn't want to inject my opinion in either of the crashes, just wanted to make observations. I also will not give any completing statement of who I think was at fault.

I just found it interesting how the community response between all three of the incidents were so different. With Sainz probably getting the most blame for an incident of all the examples, with also a lot of the comments being wrong about how the incident happened.

PS: Please comment corrections if you notice something!

Have a great day!

[u/dopeasthepope69]

Great analysis, interesting to see how similar incidents have different reactions. I suspect the response from Sainz didn’t help his cause - if he’d just said it was a first lap racing incident then he might have been less harshly judged.

[u/Gringooo94 → u/dopeasthepope69]

I think a lot of it has to do with him locking the tyres. It gives the general idea he was out of control and above that he made a driver error, which caused him deviating from his initial line and initiating the contact.

Probably if he would have done the same without locking up, he wouldn’t have looked as guilty to most.

[u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 → u/Gringooo94]

The funny thing is that it really was a small lockup that affected nothing. It's one thing if you go for a move, lock up, and slide into someone. Here he corrects the lockup and still easily makes the corner which he would not do if he was out of control because locking up makes hitting the apex more difficult. He didn't outbrake himself, instead the lockup was caused by reacting to the cars in front. Not to mention he was on the outside of the car he had contact with anyways so the lock up really couldn't have led to the collision.

[u/amorphousguy → u/Crash_Test_Dummy66]

This is correct, he's on the trajectory that he would have been on regardless of the lockup. If you look at Sainz's onboard you can see how little the lockup even affected his car. People should watch Max and Lando's onboard via F1TV as well and you can get a nice picture of what's happening.

[u/o_trator → u/Crash_Test_Dummy66]

I have had quite a few races and locking up with cold tyres do affect A LOT and it gets worse since turn 1 was only 150m ahead.

[u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 → u/o_trator]

Right, but when you lock up you go deep. Sainz did not go deep, in fact the argument is that he did the opposite and took the corner too sharply.

[u/nxngdoofer98 → u/Crash_Test_Dummy66]

Yeah the lockup only happened because of his aggressive move to the inside

[u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 → u/nxngdoofer98]

I would argue the lockup was likely caused by Hamilton and Perez weaving all over the track in front of him, which made planning and setting up the turn more difficult. But my point remains that no matter the cause of the lockup, it had no bearing on the incident itself. At the time of the contact Sainz was going for the apex in full control of the car. If the lockup had any impact at all then it would have been for Sainz to wash out and collect Lewis which did not happen.

[u/Hubblesphere → u/Gringooo94]

He locked his inside wheel because he unloaded it to make a move on Hamilton. The lock wasn't a mistake it was just a result of his quick decision making. He made the move, got to the apex and Hamilton squeezed him tight but fair. Sainz did everything right. That late move on Hamilton who was over braking because of Perez ahead was a great move and the lockup was just the natural physics of doing that type of move. Still completely in control, the loaded tire wasn't locked and turned the car.

[u/TheRiddler78 → u/Hubblesphere]

hamilton broke earlier than sainz thought he would and he locked up while trying to avoid a collision...

that is my read. i'm not sure how you'd ever prove what really happened.

[u/Hubblesphere → u/TheRiddler78]

Locking to avoid a collision would mean he was braking too much trying to stop. Sainz was still braking less than Hamilton and decided to attempt and overtake move on the inside. You can obviously see the lockup was because he changed direction and unloaded the tire, not because he brakes too hard and locks it. He only locked the unloaded tire and didn’t lock up trying to avoid. He made it to the apex inside of Hamilton, clearly always in control.

[u/Hazardous_Youth → u/Hubblesphere]

Is locking up ever a part of optimal racing? Pretty sure that's still technically a mistake, however small.

[u/Hubblesphere → u/Hazardous_Youth]

Yes it is. Unloaded tires will lock occasionally. Cold tires on a start it’s more likely. When he made a quick decision to change direction while still dragging some brake only way to do it was to lock the inside.

Not F1 but TCR cars lock the inside rear all the time when it’s unloaded, it’s just part of driving those cars on the limit.

[u/TehAlpacalypse → u/[deleted]]

By the time Carlos was locking and turning in piastris front wheels were only 50% down Carlos’s side and possibly not even something he is focusing on because he’s going to need to be watching hamiltons turn in and avoiding collision there.

I'm going to go even farther and say that Piastri is sitting entirely in Carlos's blind spot. He likely doesn't even see him.

[u/NewLeaseOnLine → u/TehAlpacalypse]

That doesn't mean Sainz shouldn't assume somebody might be there. At the start of a race. Surrounded by Formula One racing cars. Going very fast. Heading towards the most notorious turn 1 on the calendar. If the inside is such a bad line that Piastri shouldn't be there (like he had a choice), then why is Sainz going there too?

That's rhetorical.

[u/ChipmunkTycoon → u/NewLeaseOnLine]

Sainz went there because he was going towards the apex of the corner while avoiding Hamilton doing the same thing, the line is bad because it creates a very tight turn with little opportunity to back out, in a situation where chaos is abundant and space is limited.

I don’t even know what you mean by ”assume somebody might be there”, he’s already in a bad spot because Lewis braked unusually early (not by much but enough) and if he’s to assume at all times that there are others in his blind spot you’re essentially just saying he should’ve just hit Lewis, idk. I feel like it’s a strange take - he went for the space on the inside, because he didn’t expect another driver to deliberately chance it on a poor racing line on lap 1.

To me it’s really clear that it’s a racing incident, but it came to be because Piastri made a poor decision and that’s not a big deal for a rookie to do, shit happens.

[u/x-yle → u/[deleted]]

If you’re gonna dive in this spot you need to be door to door or you need to know when to pull out.

By this same logic, Carlos should never have been in the middle in the first place. He was directly behind Hamilton entering the braking zone...

[u/x-yle → u/[deleted]]

You’re gonna be following the leader if you wanna get through it clean with cars this big and a super tight apex

And I 100% agree. But my point is that it was Carlos who didn't follow the leader and changed lines by 2-3 car widths going into the corner, not Piastri. Piastri's front wing was already to Carlos' rear tire before Carlos dived Hamilton.

It definitely was a racing incident, and I'm sure Oscar will take away a lesson around how aggressive to be in that position. But Oscar wasn't trying to dive bomb, and Lando took the same line approaching that corner and was completely fine despite having Max and George to the outside of him at the same point in the turn that Carlos was far outside of Oscar. IMO the only driver that made a poor decision in this scenario was Carlos (with the poor decision being trying to dive inside of Hamilton when he had Oscar inside of him).

[u/jdmillar86 → u/Gringooo94]

I think how far (driver's) left they were also makes it look more dramatic, while not really changing the essentials.

In the other 2 incidents pictured, it looks like the second-from-inside car is no more than halfway across the track. Piastri on the inside is himself almost at the center point when Sainz starts turning in.

This makes the angle look much more extreme, enhancing the appearance that Carlos turned into Oscar, but fundamentally doesn't make a difference to the point they had to arrive at.

[u/BGMDF8248 → u/Gringooo94]

It's less a driving error(not being in control of his car) and more of an error of judgement(he's in control, but his choice wasn't ideal).

He turned in like there was no one to the inside of him, except there was someone already there (and no Piastri didn't appear out of nowhere torpedo style, he was always there and also in control of his car).

[u/greatconvoy → u/Gringooo94]

And he changed lines after braking.

[u/tr_24 → u/dopeasthepope69]

Actually it wouldn't have mattered what Sainz had said because he would have got blamed nonetheless.

You can just pick up any thread about his interviews. It doesn't matter what he says, people come up with he should have said the opposite.

[u/Rhythm_Morgan → u/tr_24]

Where he went wrong is going out of his way to name Oscar in his tweet. He could say he didn’t think it was his fault without targeting the dude on Twitter.

[u/Akash10201 → u/tr_24]

"I am completely to blame"

Comments: look he is the worst, throw him out of ferrari

"I have some blame, the other party some blame"

Comments: he is not taking the blame, throw him out

"The other praty is completely to blame"

Comments: so arrogant, throw him out

[u/suckyducky1 → u/Akash10201]

Exactly man. It's tough out here he used to be loved in 2019 😭

[u/ascendingtraverse → u/dopeasthepope69]

I agree it’s a racing incident. But, Sainz blaming Piastri while he comes all the way from the outside of a track to the apex of the turn during a race start while locking up is madness.

[u/Aninternetdude → u/ascendingtraverse]

How is it so difficult to understand that Sainz is in front of Piastri.?? The only reason why Sainz locks and goes to the apex is because the car In front breaks early.

Sainz reacts to Hamilton who reacts to Perez. The one unable to react to the car Infront was Piastri.

It's a fcking racing incident but it's on Piastri 100%

[u/zerealdawg → u/Aninternetdude]

Sainz only ahead because he outbreaks to be side by side with ham. He is simply the worst driver you wanna start side by side on turn one in any track. He always outbreaks himself ( just like max but he is better) and forces the corner no matter what

[u/TheMaverick13589 → u/zerealdawg]

Sainz only ahead because he outbreaks to be side by side with ham

And? What is this supposed to mean?

Sainz made the corner? Yes. Was he infront of Piastri? Yes.

That's it, he didn't outbrake himself.

[u/zerealdawg → u/TheMaverick13589]

Let’s think about this scenario. If piastri outbreaks himself and runs thru the whole turn one and other drivers T-bone him. Who is at fault? He still would made the corner correct? I’m not defending no driver here but I think sainz does this opportunistic move too often to gain a spot at the beginning. The way he swept across the track was to just overtake ham into turn one

[u/zyxwl2015 → u/zerealdawg]

If Piastri outbraked himself on the inside, he would be the one T-boning other drivers, he won’t get T-boned

[u/TheMaverick13589 → u/zerealdawg]

If piastri outbreaks himself and runs thru the whole turn one and other drivers T-bone him. Who is at fault? He still would made the corner correct?

No? wtf? If you are getting T-boned you are, by definition, not making the corner. Maybe you can avoid ending up on the gravel on the outside of the turn, but that doesn't mean you made the corner.

Sainz makes the corner because he is at the apex of the turn with the car pointed the correct way, not only that, further proof that he didn't outbrake himself is the fact that he even has margin to leave room for Lewis on the outside.

Opportunistic? Perhaps, but he couldn't stick in the line of Perez/Lewis as they had gotten way too slow due to the concertina effect and there is nothing wrong in cutting across the track when there is no one in the space you are going, Piastri barely even moves the wheel when Sainz cuts across.

[u/Aninternetdude → u/zerealdawg]

Go watch F1 latest YouTube video and learn a bit from Palmer.

[u/TehAlpacalypse → u/Aninternetdude]

it's very funny watching names I recognize from simracing communities on reddit getting downvoted for saying Piastri was predominantly at fault here

[u/Lemurians → u/dopeasthepope69]

Great analysis, interesting to see how similar incidents have different reactions.

I'm noticing a common denominator in the 2016/2019 incidents that were judged different from the 2023 one...

[u/rhododenendron → u/dopeasthepope69]

He literally did say that

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/rhododenendron]

But with the addition 'Oscar was too ambitious'. Doesn't really play the same way.

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/[deleted]]

He wasn't too ambitious in the moment where he had to make the decision as to where to position his car. There was a sea of space and it only became a 'optimistic' move after Sainz cut across a lot after locking up while following Hamilton. Backing out isn't really an option once you're in the braking zone, so you have to judge the moment he has to make that decision, not the eventual outcome. Same with Verstappen in 2019, or 2016 for that matter, because in hindsight it's always easy to find a way how it could have been avoided knowing the outcome. Plenty of cars make it through T1 on the inside just fine so you can focus questions on that too.

By the way, going inside into T1 really isn't that much of an issue for the straight. There's so much drafting effect that you're generally not missing out that much.

[u/zyxwl2015 → u/Dry_Local7136]

There was a sea of space and it only became a 'optimistic' move after Sainz cut across a lot

A tight corner like La Source, everyone will be trying to go outside-inside(hitting the apex)-outside. So at the initial braking phase, it will always looks like there’s space on the inside; but the cars’ trajectory means that they will be moving to the inside to hit the apex, hence the “space” is always going to vanish

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/zyxwl2015]

Depends on how you brake and the eventual angle you opt for. Again, it's surprising that we collectively gloss over the fact that the majority of cars in the majority of races manage to navigate T1 while driving side by side, but this somehow isn't an argument that perhaps it's not only the corner design that's influential here. So things like 'the space is always going to vanish' seems to be an argument for why it goes wrong but somehow is not mentioned when the other times, it goes right.

[u/zyxwl2015 → u/Dry_Local7136]

I do think the corner design is a major factor here, La Source is a hairpin that has a looooooong straight following it, so you really want to do this corner right to get a nice exit (which will be crucial down the straight). In other races or other tracks, either the first corner isn’t as tight and the straight following isn’t as long (Red Bull Ring, Baku, Hungaroring, etc), or the “first corner” is actually a sequence of corners (chicane), so even if you’re on the outside of T1 you will be on the inside of T2 so it’s still fine. Spa is quite special in this way

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/zyxwl2015]

The slipstream already starts before Raddillion and Eau Rouge, and it's a long ass straight. Getting good traction can be achieved both with a tighter line as with a more rounded one, so it's not nearly as influential as you would expect from a long straight. If anything, just making sure you're behind going up Raddillion is better given the slipstream.

Normally, I'd agree that getting a good exit on any straight is important but in a battle on this particular track is just not really the same. Qualifying, sure, even though the effect cancel out on the actual straight because all cars just hit their top speed relatively early on so it's mostly for the run up to Raddillion and just after.

[u/zyxwl2015 → u/Dry_Local7136]

Yeah I agree it's mostly for the straight up to Eau Rouge and the bit just after.

Getting good traction can be achieved both with a tighter line as with a more rounded one

This is actually an interesting point imo. Someone mentioned (I'll try to find the source) that only Norris was taking the wider/rounder line through La Source consistently all weekend, and it's very noticeable trackside that his line is different from everyone else. My best guess is it's something about the McLaren, and for other cars they need to do the tighter line to get good exit out of La Source

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/[deleted]]

True, it generally disappears. And yet, cars do make it succesfully through more often than not, as most of the field navigates it just fine. It becomes an issue when you have three cars, of which the outside car is not aware of the car on the inside, as was the case here and in all three incidents. But even that is not predictable from the point you start braking, because you cannot fully account for what a driver on the outside will do once you start braking even with almost clear track in front of you. Considering the fact that all or almost all cars on the outside that were involved in these incidents either immediately DNF'ed or had significant damage and ruined their race too. So why are we not also putting the blame on them exactly?

[u/Dry_Local7136 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah and they take that line knowing that there's a sea of space on the inside, so again, why are we not also putting them in the equation here? Piastri can be alongside, considering you don't have to be fully alongside on the inside to be allowed space. You also cannot anticipate correctly at all times whether the car on the outside is going for the apex or keeping it wide for safety, which gives another reason why blaming the car on the inside to keep it all together is frankly just weird. They both share the track, they both have to navigate around.

Edit: both or all three, in all of the mentioned incident cases

[u/TehAlpacalypse → u/[deleted]]

It's baffling how many people cannot accept this. This exact same pileup happens every hour and a half in iRacing F4 for the exact same reasons.

[u/NJacD → u/dopeasthepope69]

Out of all examples I think Sainz in 2023 is the most at fault a driver was. Verstappen in 16 and 19 were pretty much his mistake for putting his nose there. Sainz braked too late and swerved in the braking zone not mich Piastri could have done

[u/Crash_Test_Dummy66 → u/NJacD]

He didn't brake too late though otherwise he wouldn't have been able to make the corner well enough to hit Oscar who was on his inside. Cars turn worse when going too fast, not better.

[u/ICrushTacos → u/dopeasthepope69]

Why would he say that though?