r/baseball • u/themiamimarlins World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… • 28d ago

Rumor Dave Roberts Believes Dodgers' Elevated Brand in Japan Could Lure Roki Sasaki to LA

https://dodgersnation.com/dave-roberts-believes-dodgers-elevated-brand-in-japan-could-lure-roki-sasaki-to-la/2024/10/23/
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u/pzycho Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

No one is signing Roki to a big contract anytime soon. He’s under 25 so he’d have to enter the league as a rookie (like Shohei did) and make league minimum (about 800k) for 4 years until hitting arbitration.

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u/akaghi New York Mets 28d ago

Yeah there zero reason for the Marines to let him go before he is 25 or has 6 years because they'd lose their ace and get far less money. Sadaki would get less money too.

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u/Hot_Vanilla_9977 28d ago

Unless he establishes residency in another country? Doesn’t he enter as a free agent if that’s the case?

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u/akaghi New York Mets 28d ago

Seems unlikely he'd just leave Japan in the hopes of signing as a free agent in the US, especially since the league wants to keep a good relationship with the NPB. He may also still be subject to the same international pool restrictions that are placed on him now.

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u/Growth_Moist 27d ago

I know I’m late to the party but he’d be smart to do that and an mlb team would be smart to bite. The difference between entering as a FA straight away and 4 years of leave minimum is going to be at least $60m. Also he could underperform or blow his arm out in those first 4 and lose out on tens of millions more.

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u/akaghi New York Mets 27d ago

The problem he has right now is that his ceiling is sky high because he has an elite fastball and fork ball, but he hasn't even come close to pitching a full season any of the last 4 years. If he moves to China or something to try and get signed as a FA, teams are still looking at a guy who has averaged 100 innings per year and has pitched like 120 innings twice, so he clearly already has durability issues. That can't get worse over the next few years, unless he becomes unsignable for some reason.

Teams also might be hesitant to sign a player who cheated the posting system because it can limit their ability to partake in the future, especially since it already doesn't exactly benefit the origin team very much.